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by: Kathy Watterson and Lou Krieger©
This is the first article in a series to be coming over the next several months from Lou Krieger. This article looks at important poker concepts essential to the beginning player.
Kathy Watterson, who is my coauthor “Internet Poker: How to Play and Beat Online Poker Games,” coauthored this article with me. Some of this material appears in that book, though in a somewhat different form. This piece is aimed at beginning poker players, particularly newcomers to “brick and mortar” and online casino poker, or those who might have been playing for a while, but never stopped to think about what it takes to become a winning poker player.
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Bertrand Delobelle, better known as Goodi at the Poker Forum, contributes his first article in a series looking at his journeys as he tries to move up to higher limits
I emailed Matthew about the idea of sharing my experiences from the perspective of a completely beginner player. I really hope you enjoy the article and that it will help other beginners avoid falling into the same traps I did.
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Bertrand Delobelle, "Goodi", gives his 2nd article in a series about a beginner's perspective as he tries to move up to higher limits
As I stated in my previous article, I realized that I really needed to develop a strategy to manage my bankroll. This strategy is still evolving but here is what I have done so far.
First, I record all wins and losses every day account by account. Typically I play ring games on Party Poker and Empire Poker and tournaments at Ultimate Bet and PokerStars. Each of these sites have a line in my spreadsheet. Of course I have a lot of daily swings so I try to look at results by the week. Each week I then analyse the results. Where did I make money? Where did I lose money? What are my poker tracker stats for the week?
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Do you want to become a better poker player? Read on. Here are six things you can take to heart, and every one of them will improve your game.
Know Your Numbers:
If you don’t learn, understand, and use poker’s mathematical parameters, you can’t expect to be a consistent winner in the long run. For example, if you’re playing hold’em and flop a four flush but don’t know what your chances are of making a flush, what will you do when it’s your turn to act? How will you ever know whether calling, raising, or folding is a play with a positive expectation? Finding positive expectations is the essence of winning poker, and it’s no more complex than recognizing those situations that will show a profit if they could be replayed time and again.
Since poker has a large element of short-term luck, it doesn’t matter whether any one effort is successful. What does matter is knowing when a positive expectation is associated with a given play, then making it. Imagine you’re faced with a $20 call into a $100 pot, but the odds against making your hand are only 3:1. That’s a positive expectation. Repeated 100 times, you’d expect to lose $20 on 75 of those occasions, for a loss of $1500, but on 25 occasions, you’ll win $100, for a total of $2500. Your net win of $1000 ($2500 - $1500) is what’s important — not whether you won or lost on any particular hand. Divide your $1000 win by the 100 times this situation occurred, and you’ll see that in the long run, each correct decision was worth $10 to you.
Applying mathematics, statistics, and probability to poker can be an incredibly involving subject, one that cannot be covered adequately in any one article. But if this article is able to merely raise your awareness about its importance, it will be successful. If you want to learn more about poker mathematics, pick up a copy of my second book, “MORE Hold’em Excellence: A Winner For Life,” available online at www.ConJelCo.com.
Know Your Opponents:
How many times have you made a strategic move that’s doomed to fail because you chose the wrong opponent? Ever run a bluff against a someone who’s a veritable calling station? It won’t work. We all know that, but far too often we do it in spite of our better judgment.
If mathematics was the only skill required for winning, the best players would all be mathematicians — and they’re not. Knowing your opponents is also critical. Observe their actions at the table. Analyze their decisions and the choices they make. Are they in every hand? Do they raise with hands that don’t warrant it? Are they rock-tight? You’ll find it fairly easy to get a read on most players within a half hour. The best time to do this is when you’re not in a hand. If you find yourself waiting for a game, watch your opponents-to-be, so you can adjust and temper your game strategies to their play before sitting down at the table.
Keep Your Ego Out of the Game:
Never, never let your ego control your play. Someone put a bad-beat on you? So what! Never personalize it, even if he looks you right in the eye and laughs like a loon while he rakes in your chips. The minute you decide to “…get him,” you’re sure to miss other opportunities and probably squander some chips chasing him down. If the old adage, “Living well is the best revenge” holds true, then playing well — and walking away with a few racks of chips is a giant step in that direction.
Keep Records — Even When It Hurts:
If you don’t keep records how will you know whether you’re winning or losing in the long run? Every player who fails to keep records deceives himself. Most players, when asked, will say they’re life-long winners. But we both know that’s not true. The next time someone tells you he’s a life-long winner, ask about his records. If he doesn’t assiduously record wins and losses, he’s seeing only what he wants to — and more often than not, it’s an illusion.
While few things are more painful than recording a big loss in your notebook, records are critical, since the human mind is blessed with an endless capacity for self-deception.
Choose the Best Game:
Much as we’d like to believe otherwise, the truth is this: Most of our winnings come from opponents’ stupidity, not the excellence of our play. Choose the game with the weakest opponents. A game full of weak players who call too often but are reluctant to raise with strong hands will do fine. After all, if you can’t beat players who call too much, who can you beat?
Commit to Excellence:
Want to be a great poker player? Commit to greatness. Declare your excellence tonight, starting with the next hand you play. Visualize yourself as the greatest poker player ever — and act accordingly. It does not take long to make changes. It takes forever to maintain change, but changes of the most dramatic, fundamental and far-reaching sorts, can be had instantly and made today.
You can reach excellence in a heartbeat, and you can do it today. If you want to be a winning, excellent player, go ahead and do it. It takes no time at all to achieve change, but it will take forever to maintain it. It’s that simple. |
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Be Selective, But Be Aggressive How true. In the real world you do have to pick your battles, and carefully choose when to retreat, (fold ‘em) and when to draw your proverbial line in the sand (hold ‘em). History is replete with examples. General Robert E. Lee, confronting overwhelming supremacy in men, munitions, and technology, was able to keep the Confederacy’s cause alive as long as he did because he picked his battles carefully. He did not engage the Union Army at every opportunity; he selected opportunities where he believed he could negate the Union ’s inherent advantages and overcome them. In fact, during the early stages of the war, Union General McClellan was unwilling to commit his troops, even when the odds were strongly in his favor. Like a player who is overly weak and overly tight, General Lee constantly ran him off the best hand. McClellan ultimately suffered the military equivalent of really bad beat ¾ he was sacked by President Lincoln, who, knowing his man held most of the big cards, wondered why he wouldn’t play a hand and therefore couldn’t win! Know Your Opponents If you can pick up tells in a poker game -- where players take great pains not to broadcast them -- think how easy it ought to be to read people away from the table. Yet how many of us really take the time to know our opponents. Your boss is in a nasty, irritable mood? Maybe you’d be better off feigning an emergency and postponing your annual performance review until next week. Wouldn’t you stand a better chance of winning when you held a strong hand? Tackle a tough project now. Close that sale and make some customer so happy that he calls your boss and tells him how valuable you are. Once you’ve done that you’re holding strong cards -- strong enough to stand up to your annual review. Try it in your social life. You don’t have to be an expert on body language to realize that you’re not getting to first base with that woman who’s got her legs crossed, arms folded, and is leaning away from you with a bored, indifferent expression on her face. It’s time to try a new strategy, or be selective, fold your hand, and wait for some new cards to be dealt. Do the Pot Odds Offset the Odds Against Making Your Hand? No winning player would draw to a flush with 5:1 odds against making it, when the pot only promises a 3:1 payoff. The winning player will wait until the pot promises a payoff better than 5:1 before investing in it. The same thing is true away from the table. While real life payoffs can vary widely, your investments are usually time, money, or both. Is it worth your time to spend half a day trying to make a small sale, without the promise of greater rewards down the road, or are you better off courting one of your bigger, better customers? Whenever you analyze situations like this, the answers often seem obvious. Still, people fritter away large amounts of time, not realizing that they can be horribly unproductive. Office workers spend hours dealing with problems and issues that may be urgent, but are often neither significant nor important. Better time management frees you from dealing with issues over which you can exert little control, and have small payoffs. If you aspire to success, you’ll look for chances to capitalize on opportunity, rather than wasting your time fighting small, insignificant, brush fires. Once you’re able to step back from the daily demands of urgent-but-unimportant issues, you’ll be able to see opportunities as easily as you saw that spending time with important customers was more productive than chasing opportunities offering insignificant payoffs for your efforts. Have a Plan If you have no standards at the, and adopt an any-two-cards-can-win philosophy, you’ll soon go broke. Knowing in advance which cards you’re going to play, what position you’ll play them from, and how you’ll handle different opponents, are key factors to success at the poker table. It’s no different in the real world. If you don’t plan, you’re just a leaf in the wind. While traveling in a random direction does get you somewhere, it’s probably not where you hoped to go. Poker teaches you to plan, to have an agenda, and to pursue it aggressively. In the real world, if you don’t have your own agenda, you’ll soon be part of someone else's. In fact, I’d guess that if you examined people foolish enough to join a cult, you’d find very few of them with a plan, an agenda, or a set of governing values to guide them. Be Responsible. Never Blame Others For Your Failures. Quit Bitching. Everyone’s, it seems, has their favorite bad beat stories. I’ve been around poker tables long enough now that I seldom hear one that’s unique. Moreover, I don’t care. So you lost in a way that defied all imaginable logic and odds. A bad decision from a floor person did you in. Who cares? Enough, already. It doesn’t change anything. You’ll never be a successful poker player until you accept full and complete responsibility for the results you achieve. Real life is much the same. To succeed, plan on always being held accountable for your actions. So you weren’t born with Rockefeller’s money, Einstein’s brains, or Tom Cruise’s looks. Neither were most folks. Get up. Get on your feet. Play the cards you were dealt. Go on from there. Most of us do not come close to maximizing our potential. Some don’t even try. Like successful poker players, those who are successful in real life don’t place the blame for their failures anywhere but where it belongs ¾ squarely on their shoulders. Be Sure You Have An Out When I was 12 years old my arch enemy was an overgrown 13 year old named Zimp. He was always threatening to beat the crap out of me, and I had no doubt he could do it. But I had an out. Zimp was big, and Zimp was strong, but he was slow. Since I could outrun him, out ride him on my bicycle, and out climb him on any trees or garage roofs he’d try to chase me over, I could escape every time he decided to take a run at me. As long as I never got myself get cornered in a blind alley, I knew I could survive childhood until we grew up. I also had another enemy, a kid named Skinny Vinny. Now I could take Vinny, but Vinny could outrun me, and I seldom caught him. Had Vinny and Zimp been card players they would have known that even though I was a favorite against each of them individually (I could take Vinny, and I could outrun Zimp) if the two of them ever teamed up, I was dead meat. All it would have taken was for Vinny to run me down, and keep me engaged until Zimp arrived to toss me a beating. Neither one of them had an ounce of brains, weren’t friends anyway, and never got together to conspire about how to take out their mutual enemy. Next time you’re holding a pair of kings or aces, and thinking about just calling instead of raising to limit the field, remember Zimp and Vinny. They never got the better of me because each chose to face me individually -- and I was a big favorite heads up. If they took me on together, I’d have gone from a favorite individually, to an underdog against their collective efforts. I grew up in Brooklyn , in a neighborhood where street smarts were required learning at an early age. Maybe these street smarts helped me learn poker, and gave me the discipline to play it well. But I also believe poker gave me more street smarts than I ever would have garnered if I never played the game. Who knows? Maybe they’re mutually self-enhancing. If you keep playing the game, and listen to the messages coming your way across the card table, you’ll not only win at poker, you’ll win at life. Keep flopping aces! |
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The Third Largest Poker Tournament in the World "You're at the final table of the richest tournament of ANY kind in online history."
--PokerStars Card Room Manager Lee Jones as the WCOOP Main Event final table got underway Two annual series of events define online MTT play – World Series of Poker satellites, and the World Championship of Online Poker (WCOOP), hosted by PokerStars. The WCOOP in 2005 was a series of 15 huge MTTs, with buy-ins ranging from $200 to $2500, and a variety of games including stud, holdem, and Omaha in limit, pot limit, and no limit forms. Over $12.7 million in prize money was awarded to 1972 players from 82 countries. Perhaps the biggest indicator of its success was the large number of accomplished professional players who participated. Notable pro participants in the main event included Gus Hansen (broski), Scott Fischman (emptyseat88) and Phil Ivey (erguon). Pros in the money included 2-time WSOP bracelet winner Mark Seif (Buster Love) in 9th,Tony G. (wraptduck) in 10th, William Chen (wchen - 51st), Barry Greenstein (crazyplayer – 53rd), Isabelle Mercier (NoMercy – 63rd), and Phralad Friedman (Prefontaine – 116th). The top three players in the $2500 Main Event each won more than $500,000. In true poker tournament fashion, the winners of each event also took home a gold bracelet to go with their cash. Of the 1494 entrants, online player Panella86 took home the grand prize of $577,000 when JT caught a ten on the turn to beat A6. Lee Jones, WCOOP Tournament Director, was “overwhelmed” by the success of the WCOOP. “We exceeded our $8 million guarantee by nearly 60 percent, making the WCOOP the third largest poker tournament series of any kind so far this year…this was a poker tournament to remember.” Freerollin’ Every month, The MTT Scene will take a look at freerolls (tournaments with no buy-ins that award real money prizes) at the larger sites. The largest current freeroll is the Paradise Poker ‘Million Dollar Freeroll II.’ This gives players the chance to win $1 million with no entry fee! There are three qualifiers each day to the main event, which will be held December 3rd and 4th. Play in the main event will continue online until the final table of ten players is set. In January, those ten players will then be flown on an expense-paid trip to an exotic location to play the final table live, with the winner receiving $1 million! In all, $1.15 million will be awarded. The final table of the first Million Dollar Freeroll was completed on Sunday, September 25. The ten finalists were flown to Costa Rica to play the final table live. First place went to boon88 (real name Lee Biddulph), of Blackpool , UK . ITH Forum Member, Professor77, finished a respectable third, despite having the 7th largest stack at the beginning of the final table. This month I checked out the daily freerolls at Party Poker. Party hosts three daily $2500 freerolls, along with several smaller freerolls that are entered with frequent player points. If you are not already a player at Party Poker, use the ITH link to sign up and you will receive the following bonuses: An entry to the weekly $5000 freeroll for new players Two free poker books from the ITH Free Book Offer A 20% bonus on your first deposit (maximum $100 bonus) Qualify for a Live Tournament Online poker sites are a great place to qualify for large buy-in “live” tournaments. I will have an even bigger selection of live tournament satellites in the next MTT Scene. Entry into the $10,200 World Poker Tour November event at Foxwoods can be won at Paradise Poker and UltimateBet. Both sites have sub-qualifiers that can be entered for as little as $4. Paradise awards the $10,200 buy in plus $1300 to cover travel expenses. UB includes $1000 for travel expenses. Poker Stars is running satellites for the World Poker Tour $25,500 Championship at the Bellagio in April. Players can enter qualifiers for small buy ins or use accumulated frequent player points for freeroll shots at the big event. ITHers Participate in WPT Aruba Event Congratulations to ITH member osmosis who finished in the money at the WPT event in Aruba . Mark was 105th in a field of 647. He qualified for this tournament by winning a 2-step satellite at UltimateBet. The first step was a $10 buy in MTT, which qualified him for the main WPT satellite. Matthew Hilger was also in Aruba but was knocked out late on the first day. Join Matthew Hilger on the Party Poker Million V Cruise Party Poker is currently running satellites for its ‘Party Poker Million V’, which will have a prize pool of about $7 million! Join Matthew and other ITH’ers in this great event. The tournament takes place on a cruise ship in March 2006. Qualifiers win entry to the tournament, a cruise for 2, and spending money. There is a rumor that Party Poker might be changing the PPM from limit to no-limit. I will have an update in next month’s column. Win a Fortune Without Leaving Home One of the largest prize pools each week is found in the Poker Stars $500,000 Guaranteed. The tournament is entered with a $200+15 buy in, or by qualifying in a satellite. Sunday afternoons see 3000 or more players enter this exciting MTT, which can take 9 hours to finish. The top 5 finishers usually win at least $30,000, and first prize exceeds $100,000. The tournament rewards solid play with its larger starting stacks and longer blind levels. Satellites to this tournament can be entered for as little as $3. The Daily Guaranteed Tournaments at PokerStars also deserve mention, because Stars just announced that the guaranteed prize pools of these $11 rebuy tournaments has been increased to $45,000. Strategy Corner A recent thread on the ITH Forum concerned a player who was faced with three players all in before him on the turn, when he held the nuts on the turn (top set), but was vulnerable to a flush draw and two different straight draws. It was demonstrated that the player was a 60% favorite to win with one card to come. This thread got me to thinking: Is there ever a situation where a player should fold the nuts here? There are two reasons a player might fold here; one reason is good and the other is terrible. The good reason to fold is to move up when on the bubble of a qualifier. If ten players remain, 8 advance, and there are three all ins, a fold is wise unless you hold an unbeatable hand (such as quads with no overcards or straight flush draws on the board). On a ragged board such as T459, a tie is unlikely, so let the other three players go at each other, and figure two will be knocked out (or close to it). The terrible reason to fold is fear. A player who is on scared money might lay this down when on the bubble for fear of not making the money. The lesson is clear – play within a reasonable bankroll. A player with a proper bankroll does not fear calling three players all-in in a situation like this. If you are somehow knocked out, there’s always another tournament if your bankroll is sufficient. Good players have no interest in just finishing in the money, and getting all of your chips in on the turn when you are a 3-to-2 favorite is a good way to become a higher finisher. In the next column, I will go in depth on just how large an MTT bankroll should be. |
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Statistically speaking even if you are a very good poker player, with a huge bankroll, there is a chance that you will eventually run so bad that you will go broke. Unfortunately we can’t eliminate that probability completely but we can reduce it. Common practise is to have a bankroll of 300 big bets if your game is limit hold’em.
But where does this 300 big bets strategy come from? Do I always need to drop down a level when I lose so much that I only have 300 big bets for the next level down? There are no simple answers to these questions. I try to understand how my bankroll behaves statistically so that I feel more comfortable with my bankroll strategy. I find it easier to think about some of the concepts in very simple non-poker terms first. Lets look at some statistical ideas associated with bankroll management: - Going broke in a simple game
- Estimating my earn rate
- Variation in my earn rate
- Probability Distribution functions
- Short term swings
1. Going broke in a simple game Game Theory is a branch of statistics, which unsurprisingly looks at statistical problems associated with games. One of the most well known problems is the “gamblers ruin” problem. What is the probability that a gambler, playing a particular game, will go broke and when is that likely to happen? Obviously the more complex the game in question the more complex the calculation. Before the advent of computers, that are able to run large scale simulations, statisticians would get very excited about fancy equations and methods to estimate the answers to these questions. Let’s look at the simplest example. There is a game called “lucky coins” where you play against the house. You walk up to the table with a pound coin, the dealer tosses it and if its heads he keeps it and if its tails you keep it and he gives you another one (I am using pounds rather than dollars because I am English and its easier to conceptualise tossing coins than it is to conceptualise tossing notes). If you have a bankroll of £100 and the house also has a bankroll of £100 and you play until one of you is broke then it should be obvious that you have a 50% chance of going broke. If you have £100 and they have £300 then you have a 75% chance of going broke… do you see how that is so? In fact this problem breaks down to a very simple formula: Probability of going broke = their bankroll/(your bankroll + their bankroll) There is an interesting result in here. When you play against the house in this break even game your chances of going broke are in proportion to the size of your bankroll compared to theirs. This gives the house a great advantage because for all intent and purposes their bankroll is infinite compared to most peoples’. They win in the long run because the games are statistically skewed in their favour and because they have more money. 2. Estimating my earn rate In Limit Hold’em your historic (or past) earn rate is very easy to calculate. Earn rate per hour = Total amount earned/number of hours played. Earn rate per hundred hands = Total amount earned×100/number of hands played. Earn rate per hand = Total amount earned/number of hands played. I like the second one best and the common practice is to divide this number by the amount of the big bet to get a rate per hundred expressed in big bets. You need to have a lot of hands for this to be meaningful. It is also a useful starting point to estimate your expected future earn rate. However, hopefully you will be improving your play all the time so this wont really be a static number that you can ever define exactly. 3. Variation in my earn rate Variation is a much more tricky statistic to define If your game is “lucky coins” then your expected earn rate per toss is zero. Half the time you win £1 and half the time you lose £1. But you will never ever earn zero on a single toss! So your actual earn rate on a single hand is never equal to your expected earn rate and the variation between the two possible amounts you could earn is huge. In poker your actual amount earned over a hundred hands will very rarely be equal to your long term earn rate. Sometimes it will be negative and sometimes positive. If you are a winning player then in the long run the positives will more than cancel out the negatives. In order to use statistical equations to develop our bankroll strategy we need to define this variation. The term that statisticians use is “statistical standard deviation”, they have equations that define it mathematically. They also multiply this number by itself and call it “statistical variance”. Poker Players call it “swing” which I think is a much more groovy word. 4. Probability Distribution functions A good way to visualise how variable something like earn rate is, is to plot the likelihood of the various possible outcomes. Lets do this for “lucky coins”. Lets say you decide to play ten tosses and then stop. How much could you expect to earn? These are the probabilities of each possible outcome: (If you want to know how I calculated these look here) Number of wins | probability | 0 | 0.1% | 1 | 1.0% | 2 | 4.4% | 3 | 11.7% | 4 | 20.5% | 5 | 24.6% | 6 | 20.5% | 7 | 11.7% | 8 | 4.4% | 9 | 1.0% | 10 | 0.1% |
If we graphed this it would look like this: 
So if your gambling strategy is to play exactly 10 tosses of lucky coins every time you visited a casino and then stop… you would break even about one time in 4…. You would double up (and go broke) one time in a thousand etc… The most likely outcome is that you win 5 and lose 5 which is what we would expect. Statisticians call this a binomial distribution because only two things can happen each time (either you win or lose). (if you want to know a little bit more about the binomial distribution click here) Now the binomial distribution is the simplest of all the statistical distributions. Not many things that statisticians (or poker players) want to study are simple enough to model using this distribution. One of the most useful (and well known) statistical models is the normal distribution. It is probably better known by the shape of its graph, the bell curve: 
This is used for lots of things. Exams scores are often “normalised” which means that they are adjusted so that they follow the shape of this distribution. Heights of people are normally distributed, there are a few really short and a few really tall people, but most people are somewhere in the middle. In fact statisticians (and scientists and doctors and engineers but not lawyers) assume that any random variable is normally distributed (until they are proved otherwise). So the current general assumption amongst poker professionals is that poker earn rate is normally distributed. If your game is limit hold’em and your earn rate per hundred hands is 2 big bets and your standard deviation is 19… and you wrote down how much you earned after each 100 hands… and then worked out how frequently you earned each amount….. and then plotted those numbers…. then you would get a graph that looks like the one above . (2 and 19 are considered to be very reasonable statistics for a good Hold’em player) But how would you know what your standard deviation is? Well you could plot the graph and then measure it. You would do this by comparing it to graphs drawn according to the probability density function for the normal distribution: You could also use what are known as “regression techniques” to arithmetically estimate your average earn rate and standard deviation from your raw data. Thank heavens we no longer have to do this because these days computers will do it for you. If you play online and use Poker Tracker it will calculate these parameters for you. The three curves below show how variable the amount you can expect to earn is, per 100 hands, for different standard deviations. They all have the same average earn rate, 2 big bets per 100 hands. 
4. Short term swings If I have a session where I lose 30 big bets in the first hundred hands I try not to be disheartened. I endeavour to continue to make correct poker decisions and remember that graph. Although, thankfully it doesn’t happen that often, a 30 big bet loss in the first 100 hands is not beyond the realm of possibilities, or indeed probabilities. Likewise when I win 30 big bets or more in the first 100 hands I don’t let myself think that I am the best poker player ever. It’s all natural within expected variance. In fact if your average earn rate is 2 bb/100 and your sd is 19 then in your first 100 hands you would expect to: - lose 30 big bets or more one session in every 22
- win 30 big bets or more one session in every 14
- be in profit only 54% of the time.
(if you would like to know how I calculated these then see here) So what should my bankroll strategy be? Obviously the most important thing to do to minimise the chances of going broke is to make correct poker decisions hand by hand, street by street. There is no magic formula or mathematical proof that can determine a perfect or “correct” bankroll strategy. Your bankroll strategy will decide the level/limit that you play at. These are some of the principles you should consider when determining your bankroll strategy. - The amount you win or lose will vary in the short term. This is what brings players with less skill than you to the table, so variance should be revered not feared (but always respected).
- In the short term the dominant statistic is variance. In the long term, earn rate dominates.
- For Limit Hold’em most poker professionals consider 300 big bets to be the minimum (but sufficient) bankroll required to weather the short term swings. Similar consensus exists for other forms of poker. If you play another form then you should make yourself familiar with the prevailing advice.
- Seriously consider dropping down a level when you reach 300 big bets for the level below. If you do drop down, DO NOT lose respect for the game and your opponents because the bets look smaller.
- If you move up a level and get hammered it’s not always due to swing. You may not be ready. Move down again and rebuild your bankroll and your confidence.
- When your bankroll is vulnerable consider avoiding situations with high variance outcomes. I actively avoid playing with maniacs when my bankroll is low. By doing this I am giving up potential profit but also but I am also reducing the probability that I will have to drop down a level (which would definitely reduce my expected earnings in the long run). Playing scared against a maniac is probably not a terrific idea.
- Always protect your bankroll ahead of your ego.
The bankroll strategy that you employ will depend on your poker aims and on how much risk you are prepared to take. Hopefully some of these ideas have helped you understand the nature of that risk a little better. |
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ITH Forum Member Chevin Makes Top 5 in Stars $700,000
Big congratulations to ITH member Chevin who made the top five in the most recent PokerStars $700,000 Guaranteed tournament. A deal between the top five players gave Chevin almost $60,000 and left $10,000 on the table for first place. Chevin made a nice showing, finishing third overall. Discussion was intense on the ITH chat forum and a thread in the ITH forum discussed the final table play and the machinations of the deal making.
Way to represent the ITH team, Chevin!
Welcome to the Final Table…in Tahiti?
Paradise Poker completed its Paradise Masters 3 tournament on October 16. The $1000 multi-table tournament was played in two stages, beginning with a typical online MTT. Play continued until the final table of ten was determined, whereupon play paused, and the finalists were flown (expenses paid) to Tahiti to play the final table live in paradise (of course). Player “Brett Ho” came back from the low stack to emerge victorious and take home over $240,000.
Satellites are currently running for Paradise Masters 4. The online portion of the $1 million guaranteed tournament begins on January 15, 2006. A series of qualifying MTTs known as “Hop” and “Skip” can be entered for as little as $5. Where will your final table play?
Get Ready for Your Next WPT or WSOP event
One major difference between online MTTs and live tournaments is the blind/stack ratio. The large stacks and long levels in live tournaments are a big adjustment for online players, who are used to fast action and are more willing to rely on luck. If you are preparing to enter one of the major live tournaments, look into the PokerStars Deep Stacks tournaments. These MTTs are weeknights at 1815 ET, weekends at 1200 ET, and feature buyins ranging from $11 to $109. Games include Limit and No-Limit Holdem, Omaha, and Omaha Hi-Lo. Starting stacks are $5000 and blind levels are 30 minutes. This more closely approximates the conditions found in major live tournaments. Short handed experts will appreciate the new 6-handed MTTs at Stars, played at 2045 ET six days per week.
Let Howard and Annie Teach You Poker
Win an expense-paid trip to Annie Duke and Howard Lederer’s Poker Fantasy Camp in Las Vegas December 1. The four-day event includes $100,000 in freerolls for participants. PokerRoom is giving away $9000 prize packages to the Camp. Win in a $108 MTT or enter the subsatellite for $12.
If you are not already a player at PokerRoom, use the ITH Free Book Offer to sign up and get two free poker books along with a 40% deposit bonus and a new player freeroll.
Rumor Mill
Rumors have circulated that Party Poker may change its March Party Poker Million V tournament from Limit to No Limit. As of now, there is no change, and Party Poker continues to emphasize the Limit format. Watch this space.
Sunday Night Football…and Poker
Full Tilt Poker is hosting a Post Game Poker $50+5 tournament at 2359ET on Sundays. The prize pool will be increased by $1 for each point scored in that day’s NFL games. So, bet the over, and go all in!
A Winter Escape and a WPT Tournament
January…shoveling snow…paying off Christmas bills…how about playing poker in the Bahamas instead? PokerStars is hosting the World Poker Tour PokerStars Caribbean Adventure from January 4-11. The $12,000 prize package includes an $8000 entry, 7 nights lodging in the glorious Atlantis Resort on Paradise Island, Bahamas, and $2000 in meal and travel expense money. Seats can be won in $175 Double Shootouts (3 per day) or $615+35 MTTs. Sub qualifiers can be entered for as little as $3.
Online Satellites to Live MTTs
The World Poker Finals WPT event at Foxwoods begins November 13. Last minute qualifiers are still running at Full Tilt, Paradise, Absolute, and UltimateBet.
The WPT Five Diamond Classic at Bellagio in Las Vegas takes place in mid-December. Satellites are currently running at Empire Poker, PokerRoom, and Hollywood Poker.
European players will appreciate the opportunity to win a $16,000 prize package to the European Poker Tour Monte Carlo event. PokerStars is running satellites including freerolls.
Full Tilt Poker is qualifying players for the World Series of Poker Circuit events. Satellites to the Atlantic City and Las Vegas circuit events are running through November 20.
WSOP Dates Set
Harrah’s has officially announced the dates for the 2006 World Series of Poker. The series runs from June 25 through August 10. The Main Event begins July 28 and ends August 10.
Some sites have started satellites to the Main Event. Now that the official date is set, more sites will announce their prize packages. Keep an eye on this column next month for a rundown, and a look at qualifier strategy.
Freerollin'
Freeroll specialists will enjoy the daylong action at Absolute Poker. At least 40 freerolls make the schedule daily. Most are NL Holdem, but Omaha, Stud, and their Hi-Lo versions are also available. These free tournaments are a great way to expose yourself to a range of poker varieties.
This column previously mentioned the Million Dollar Freeroll II at Paradise Poker, and it is worth mentioning again. The online portion of the freeroll takes place December 3, and qualifiers are running three times daily until then. Don’t miss your chance at a free million…and a trip to paradise as well!
Win a Fortune Without Leaving Home
The $1000 Grand Tournament V at Poker Network sites (PokerRoom and Hollywood Poker included) is a two-day online MTT, on December 17 and 18. Starting stack is 10,000, so this tournament allows better players enough time for their skills to win out. First place in GT IV won $134,000.
Strategy Corner
Last month, I looked at a fold/call situation from the bubble of an MTT. The player held the nuts on the turn (top set), but was possibly vulnerable to two separate straight draws and a flush draw. Three players were all in before our hero. In a regular cash MTT, this hand should never be folded in that circumstance. A player shouldn’t fold here to try to get in the money.
The biggest issue here is probably bankroll. A properly bankrolled MTT player does not worry about calling all-in in the above situation, because there is always another tournament. Bankroll requirements for MTT players are like those for ring game players. A player should have enough bankroll to play proper strategy without having to worry about the swings of the game. The difference is that the bankroll must be measured in buy-ins, not bets.
While a player’s skill level will partially determine bankroll requirements, a good general rule is to have 40 buy ins at the player’s normal level. This allows for some substantial swings and allows the player to take the appropriate risks required to finish at the top. The minimum should be about 20 buy ins, and any player dropping below that level should consider dropping down.
Don’t forget to participate in the MTT forum for hand examples and strategy advice.
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This interview with Matthew was conducted in late 2005 by 72os.
72os - Around 5 years ago you gave up a great paying job to become a full time online poker player. Back then had you envisioned being where you are right now with a successful book, popular website, and 2 back to back money finishes in the WSOP main event?
Matthew Hilger - My wife and I decided to quit my job and move to New Zealand to enjoy one last hurrah before having kids and raising a family. Online poker was just a means to pay the bills while we were having fun over in New Zealand. The original plan was to just go on a two-year sabbatical and then return to the States where I would find another job.
But our plans changed a little ?. I wrote Internet Texas Hold’em while living in New Zealand as a way to break up the monotony of the day playing online all the time. I really only expected that the book might generate a nice side income. We returned to the States in May of 2003. I actually sent out resumes and had one job interview in June and July. During this time, I started to realize just how big poker was in the States. I wasn’t too excited about wearing a suit again and asked my wife, “Why don’t we give the book six months and see what happens?” The book was released in August and I have never looked back.
My website really was another unexpected surprise. I originally just started up the site as a means to be able to sell a few books directly rather than go through wholesalers. It cost me $300 to start the site and now we have two full-time employees and a part-time programmer.
So to say that I envisioned this success would be a lie! The success was a combination of good timing, good luck, and just being able to capitalize on the opportunities as they came about.
72os - Your book Internet Texas Hold'em: Winning Strategies from an Internet Pro came out in 2003. Since then we have seen the popularity of poker explode. Do you think online poker has changed since your wrote the book? If so how?
MH - The games are much looser nowadays. Television has brought so many new players into the game. I sometimes wonder how much I could have made back then if the games were as juicy as they are today. There are also a tremendous number of new sites to choose from so finding a good game is never a problem. When I was playing in New Zealand, the top limits were $20-$40 and they were quite tough when compared to similar limit games that you see now.
72os - Your book was focused on Limit Texas Hold’em. With No Limit Hold’em on TV everywhere do you think they are missing out by starting out playing No Limit?
MH - Tournament play is fun and exciting, especially no-limit. But I think it is easier learning the fundamentals of the game playing Limit. Of course, I started out playing no-limit tournaments in Costa Rica so you can still go from one to the other if you know how to adapt.
72os - On a personal note I have to say that I owe a lot of my success in poker to ITH and you. I remember on of my first post on the InternetTexasHoldem.com forum was on a bad run of cards I was on, and the felling of having a lot of doubt in my game. I woke up that morning to see that you had taken time to reply back to me and give me some advice that got me in the right frame of mind to be playing winning poker. What have all the success stories meant to you? Sample of the advice I was given: “…This is why there are so many fluctuations in this game. People don't realize that it is just subtle moves and plays made over the long-term that impact your results. For example, in a 2 or 3 hour session, you may have 4 or 5 pots which greatly impact your short-term results. You hit a flush in a big pot or your opponent hits a runner-runner to take away a nice pot from you. On your good days or bad days a small number of pots will make a difference...”
MH - I never get tired of receiving positive feedback! I really just consider myself a student of the game and thought I could write a book which would prevent players from making some of the same mistakes I did when starting out. The Forum at my website is just an extension of that. I think we have a great community now where everyone is there to help each other out. It’s great that the book and website has had such a good impact on so many players. I can’t wait to see some of these players hit the big time over the next few years and hear them say that ITH was the first book they read!
72os - On the other hand have you had anyone blame you and your book for not turning them into and over night success in poker?
MH - Everyone has opinions and not everyone has liked the book but no one has blamed me for their losses.
72os - You’ve had a lot of success at the WSOP the last 2 years. Do you plan on playing more on the tournament circuit or are you going to only focus on a few events a year?
MH - I want to play more tournaments but it has been difficult. #1, I hate being away from my family on the road. #2, the website and a new book I have been working on take up a lot of my time. I definitely plan on playing more tournaments next year including even more tournaments at the WSOP.
72os - At this years WSOP main event you flipped over 77 vs. Doyle Brunson’s KJ. What was going through your mind during and after the hand?
MH - The blinds were $100-$200 and the under-the-gun player limped in. I acted next and raised to $1000. I had a huge stack at the time. Doyle acted a few positions later and moved all-in to $3200.
The first thing that came to my mind was that Doyle had been playing very conservative all day. He had rarely raised preflop, let alone a reraise. So my first thoughts were that he had a big premium pair. But then I started looking at the pot odds. I had to pay $2200 to win something like $4700 so I was getting a little better than 2 to 1 pot odds. I’m even money against two overcards and 4 to 1 against an overpair. It was close. While I was thinking, Doyle did something very uncharacteristic for him, he told me, “You don’t want to knock me out with all of the cameras and people looking on?” I thought this comment was strange. Was he trying to get me to call or fold? My instincts just told me that Doyle wouldn’t say something like that to me with a big premium pair since I was already considering pretty hard whether to call. Of course I also thought there was a chance Doyle was just using some psychology to get me to call but I went with my instinct and got great pot odds for our race.
72os - What is the biggest mistake that you see amateur players making?
MH - At the WSOP main event on Day 1, it is clearly going broke with AK. With big stacks, AK either wins you a small pot or you get out. Amateurs just don’t adjust for the big stack they get in comparison to the blinds in a major tournament. They are used to 1500 in chips where it is often correct to push AK if you hit a flop.
72os - You started playing live poker then moved into online poker. What are the biggest adjustments you have to make in your game when playing each?
MH - I can’t play live cash games. They are just way too slow for me. It is a big difference when playing two tables at 70 hands an hour compared to 40 hands an hour in a live cash game. I think the adjustment from online to live cash games is very difficult unless you are a very patient person.
On the other hand, the people aspect in live tournaments adds such a great element to the game. Playing live tournaments wears me out as there are so many things to concentrate on. So my preference is live tournaments and online cash games. The biggest adjustment between the two is just being able to adapt to the change of pace.
72os - How much online poker do you get to play now?
MH - About 5 hours a week. I mostly play $50-$100 short-handed. During April to June I play more online tournaments to try and gear up for the WSOP. I hope to complete my book by the end of the year and plan on putting in some real hours for a couple of months during the winter playing online tournaments.
72os - What type of computer set up do you have to play online? And is there something that is a must have for online players?
MH - When I play online, I play for fun and to work on my game. For that reason, I rarely play multiple tables anymore. I don’t play unless I can concentrate and I just prefer not to play multiple tables. So my setup is pretty basic.
I do have an elliptical machine setup so that I can play with a wireless mouse while getting a good workout. You can’t beat getting some exercise while making money at the same time.
72os - You have a new book in the works can you tell us a little about it?
MH - The tentative title for the new book is Texas Hold’em Odds and Probabilities: Limit, No-Limit, and Tournament Strategies. The title speaks for itself but basically the book shows how to use math to make good poker decisions in a variety of situations. The book also includes what I believe to be the most comprehensive set of Hold’em stats ever printed. I really think it will be a great resource for both beginning and advanced players. I expect it to be released in February or March.
72os - Are there any other projects you are working on that you can share with us?
MH - I have a 3rd book in the works which I am coauthoring and publishing which ought to come out next summer. Sorry, but I can’t yet divulge the topic.
I am also quite excited about The Poker Tutor which was recently rolled out on my website. The Poker Tutor features The Hendon Mob and I where you can watch us play real hands in an online setting. The beauty of the Poker Tutor is that get to read our analysis and comments in the chat box. We recently just released the first lesson from the Hendon Mob which is a sit-n-go as well as all of the key hands from my 2005 WSOP main event.
We also rolled out Neteller on our site so players can now buy books and Poker Tutor lessons using their Neteller account.
72os - After years of playing poker is the game still fun? And what do you do to avoid burn out?
MH - Great question! My first year playing full-time was a blast. My 2nd year was mixed. I could definitely see that playing poker 35 hours a week on the computer was not something I would want to do for many years. I also couldn’t do the poker circuit full-time as I just don’t like to be traveling so much.
Right now I have the perfect combination. I no longer have to rely on playing poker for an income as the book and website pays my bills. Poker is once again a “hobby”. I get to play when I want to yet poker is still a part of my everyday life as poker is my business.
To avoid burnout, I think it definitely is important to vary your game. Playing limit and no-limit, playing live and online, and playing Hold’em and other games like Omaha. Mixing it up keeps you on your toes. It is also important to constantly work on improving your game.
72os - As I have grown to be a better and better player I have found that MTTs have become less profitable relative to the gains I can find in a cash game or fast paced SNG or a Headsup match. Due to this trend I have found myself having less and less desire to play MTTs, which were once my bread and butter. I am curious as to whether you have experienced a similar trend in your playing habits as your experience and skills improved? – Grengrad
MH - I never relied on tournaments as an income. Back in the “old” days, tournaments were relatively new and not nearly as frequent as they are now. I always thought that playing cash games was the way to make a living and playing tournaments was a fun diversion. But I realize that many players nowadays specialize in tournaments. I can’t really answer your question as I haven’t really compared tournament win rates to cash win rates.
But you are doing the right thing by constantly evaluating where the “best” game is. This continues to evolve and change. With all the books out there on Hold’em, I suspect that the quality of overall play is going to improve over the next couple of years. Maybe games like Omaha and Omaha Hi-Lo are good places to look for great games? I also find that short-handed play is still very weak, even at the higher limits.
72os - Word on the internet is you know the Power of 72os, and used it at this year’s WSOP. Could you tell us about this hand?
MH - Lol. In 2004 I was known as the guy who only plays aces because of a comment made by an opponent which was aired on ESPN. This year I am known as the guy who bluffs with 72os! I guess this is a good contradictory image to have!
The short story, I made a little bluff on the turn with a board of KKJJ and my opponent checkraised me. I didn’t think he had anything but wasn’t ready to gamble my tournament life right there as I was short-stacked. I decided to simply call. He checked the river and I went all-in. He commented, “I guess you have me beat” while showing 75. I couldn’t resist and showed my 72os. You can read the longer story in Card Player or better yet, the hand is one of the key hands in the Poker Tutor lesson that we recently released.
72os - Thank you Matthew for taking time out to answer our questions, and best of luck!
If you have any questions or comments on the interview, please visit this thread in the ITH Forums. |
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December 12-16: ITH Poker Tour – Las Vegas
The first stop on our own version of the world poker tour is the WPT Five Diamond Classic at the Bellagio, December 12-16. Paradise Poker is running last minute qualifiers to this $15,300 event. Packages include $1200 for travel expenses.
December 17-18: ITH Poker Tour – Online Tournaments
Our players should head home and prepare for the holidays by playing the $1000 Grand Tournament V, on Poker Network sites including PokerRoom. This two-day event will pay over $130,000 to first place. Satellites can be entered for as little as $14.
The Party Poker Million Dollar Guaranteed tournament will play on December 17 as well. Multiple ways to qualify for this $600+40 event include $32+3 and $64+6 MTTs.
January 4-11: ITH Poker Tour – The Bahamas Part I
After a holiday break, globetrotting players can defrost on an exotic island. The five-star Atlantis Resort in Nassau will be the home of two major poker events this winter. First off is the PokerStars Caribbean Adventure, to be held January 4-11, 2006. Qualifiers run several times daily, and sub-qualifiers can be entered for as little as $3.
January 15: ITH Poker Tour – Online Tournament
Players should fire up their wireless internet connection to participate in Paradise Poker’s Masters IV tournament. This $1000 tournament has a $1 million prize pool guarantee. Play will be paused when the final table is determined and the final table will be played live in an exotic location. Previous final tables have been in Tahiti and Costa Rica.
January 19-22: ITH Poker Tour – Copenhagen
The next stop for world travelers is Denmark, home of the European Poker Tour’s Scandinavian Open. PokerStars is awarding $6600 packages to this January 19-22 event, which includes the $4800 buy in. Prima Network sites including Bet365 and Royal Vegas also have prize packages.
January 19-26: ITH Poker Tour – Tunica
The mighty Mississippi will be the backdrop for two consecutive events, starting with the WPT’s World Poker Open, January 19-23 at the Gold Strike Casino. Full Tilt Poker gives away $12K prize packages in its weekly $200+16 satellites. One Full Tilt advantage is that players have a choice of several live tournaments when winning the weekly qualifier, since many players may not be able to commit to a specific tournament before playing. Currently Full Tilt offers five choices to its players.
Another choice for Full Tilt qualifiers is to play in the World Series of Poker Circuit event at Tunica’s Grand Casino, January 24-26.
January 29-February 1: ITH Poker Tour – Atlantic City
The Borgata Hotel and Casino is the host of the World Poker Tour’s Borgata Poker Classic. This tournament is another option for Full Tilt qualifier winners.
January 24-February 4: ITH Poker Tour – The Bahamas Part II
Players of all nationalities are invited to the Canadian Poker Championships, to be held January 24 through February 4, 2006. (The Bahamas is not part of Canada as of this writing, but for a mid-winter event, we will not tell.) The prize pool is expected to exceed $2 million. Party Poker is running qualifiers for this event. Winners of an $800+50 (1 in 10) or $200+15 (1 in 40) get a prize package that includes the $5000 buy in, 6 nights lodging, and $1100 cash.
The ITH Poker Tour Continues…
Future stops for traveling poker players will include Los Angeles, San Jose, Monte Carlo, Las Vegas, and a Caribbean cruise. Look for many more details (and suggestions for qualifiers) in next month’s MTT Scene.
Freerollin’
Freeroll enthusiasts should check out the action at the Prima Network sites for the Saturday night $25,000 freerolls. Freeroll players also cannot forget the Paradise Poker Million Dollar Freeroll II, which will play December 3. Qualifier MTTs will continue through December 2, so don’t miss your chance for a free million!
Around the Internet…Tournament Action
A number of sites have announced changes to their MTT offerings recently.
Ultimate Bet has a $200+15 Sunday 8pm EST tournament with a guaranteed prize pool of $150,000.
Party Poker has a new schedule of tournaments, with easy to determine start times based on game and buy in. Full details are here: http://www.partypoker.com/news/events/current_month_tourney_schedule.htm
Sit and Go specialists need to remember that PokerStars has two daily double shootout cash tournaments. Details: http://www.pokerstars.com/board2.html
Paradise Poker has increased the guarantee amounts on its daily rebuy tournaments. The afternoon prize pool is at least $40,000, and the evening guarantee is now $75,000.
Pokerroom players can now host private tournaments in a variety of games, limits, buy ins, and payout structures. Pokerroom’s weekly Big Deal $300+20 tournament now has an $80,000 guarantee.
Empire Poker hosts a Sunday tournament especially for European players. Start time of this $50+5 MTT ($10,000 guaranteed) is 1900 GMT (2 pm EST for American players). New Empire players can take advantage of the ITH Free Book Offer when signing up.
Empire also hosts two of the largest buy ins for daily tournaments. There is a $500+30 event at 2230 EST daily and a $1000+50 at 2330 EST daily.
Absolute Poker has increased its guarantee for the Saturday 1630 EST tournament to $80,000. Players can qualify for this $150+12 in a $27+3 MTT. Despite the slightly high entry fee, this qualifier can easily result a tremendous return, as 1 in 6 will qualify for the $150 tournament.
Bodog Poker now hosts a Sunday 1530 EST $50+5 tournament with a $100,000 prize pool guarantee.
WSOP Satellites Begin
A few sites have started qualifying players for the World Series of Poker Main Event. Absolute Poker is running MTTs to qualify players for only $100+8, where 1 in 110 get an $11,000 prize package. Sub-qualifiers can be entered for only $1.10.
UltimateBet is running a WSOP VIP promotion alongside its regular qualifiers to the Main Event. The first 150 players to win a Main Event seat through UB will be entered into a VIP freeroll. The top three finishers in this freeroll will receive: First Class Air and Hotel arrangements for the Main Event, $25,000 in entry fees to other WSOP events, an iPod, Bose headphones, and Oakley sunglasses (for the Phil Hellmuth impersonators), and an additional $5000 for travel expenses.
More WSOP information, including satellites to events other than the Main Event will follow in January’s MTT Scene.
Strategy Corner
Time to learn a new game? Playing in tournaments…single table sit-and-go or MTTs…is a great way to get a lot of exposure to a game with limited risk. A player with no Omaha Hi-Lo experience might drop $50 in an hour of play at a $1/2 limit ring game table. For $10, that same player might be able to play for an hour in a tournament, with no downside risk other than the $10 entry fee.
A player learning a new game should seek out several sources for learning, including books and the ITH Forum, but there is no substitute for experience, and a player must find ways to gain experience while limiting risks to the bankroll. Tournaments can accomplish that.
One warning to players planning to play primarily in ring games is to remember that tournament play changes dramatically as the blinds increase, and that ring game strategy breaks down in the latter stages of a tournament.
For Omaha Hi-Lo (O8) games specifically, players can look to many sites, but two sites with an excellent selection of tournaments are Paradise (pot limit MTTs and limit Sit-and-Gos) and PokerStars (limit MTTs including a DeepStacks and PL and Limit Sit-and-Go tournaments). Both sites have at least six O8 MTTs on the schedule daily, and Paradise adds a weekly $150 Big Blue O8 MTT.
For any questions about any of the touranments listed in this issue, please visit this thread in the ITH Forums. For more information on Multi-Table Tournaments, visit our MTT forum.
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