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Ed Miller, Sunny Mehta, and Matt Flynn have written 5 poker books and sold more than 200,000 copies.
An interesting scenario arose for me in the $1,500 pot-limit hold'em event at the World Series of Poker. I took down 14th place and a $21,000 payday, but I won't bore you with how the ladies (pocket queens) let me down a couple of times toward the end. This column focuses on a key stage in the tournament when the time clock played an important role in determining my strategy. Let's set the scene: There were about 18 players remaining from the original field of 1,100. First place paid more than $300,000, third place paid a little more than $100,000, and 18th place paid $12,000. We were in day two and the blinds were $2,000-$4,000. This was pot-limit, and the standard preflop raise at the table was the pot amount, so most players were raising to $14,000 before the flop. I had about $60,000 in chips, with the average being about $90,000. Normally, I am in OK shape in this spot. I could play 10 orbits before going broke. I can raise to $12,000 or so and not be committed to the pot if an opponent shows a lot of strength. I am not yet desperate, but I would obviously like to double-up. Normally, I would be OK in this situation, but there was one key thing against me - the time clock. There were about 15 minutes remaining before the dinner break. We would all leave for dinner, and then come back to play with the blinds increased to $3,000-$6,000. When holding a $60,000 stack, $3,000-$6,000 blinds are very high. I would practically be pot-committed on any hand once I commited to a raise. One or two orbits around the blinds would cripple my stack. Time was working against me. If I wanted to win this tournament, my best chance would be to make something happen before the blinds increased. If there were 30-40 minutes left at the level, I would be able to play a normal short-stack strategy. But the time clock didn't allow me this luxury. So, I started to analyze the situation. If someone were to raise before me and I moved over the top of him, I could potentially win his $14,000 raise plus the $6,000 in blinds, which would increase my stack by 33 percent! And $80,000 would give me a lot more working room going into the next level. I would have enough to survive a few orbits without crippling my stack. I could raise and still fold if an opponent showed a lot of strength. That $80,000 would give me a lot more options than $60,000 would with the blinds at $3,000-$6,000. I had 15 minutes to make a move. I started looking to my right to assess my opponents. Which types of opponents were the best to make this move against? Did I prefer to do this against an opponent with looser starting-hand requirements? I would be less likely to run into a premium hand in this case. What about tighter opponents? Tight opponents might raise with fewer hands, but they also would be more likely to throw away stronger hands when facing a reraise. The problem was that no one possessed a significantly large stack at the time, so many opponents would be willing to call with a wider range of hands than usual. I concluded that my best target would be one of the looser players, although most of the play was pretty tight at this stage of the tournament. There was a player two seats to my right who fit the right profile. He was willing to raise with a wide range of hands from any position. He had me out-chipped, but not by much. If he called my reraise and lost the hand, he would be severely crippled. I believed he respected my play, as I had not made too many reraises before the flop. Note that at no point had I really considered what type of hand I would make a move with. The situation called for me to make a move under the right circumstances against the right players; a good hand would just be a bonus. With about 10 minutes left on the clock, my target made his move. He raised to $14,000 from early position and I knew right away what I was going to do. I still had a lot of players left to act behind me, but I was not in a position to be able to wait for a better opportunity. I looked down at 7-5 offsuit, which was plenty good enough to make a play. I made a reraise, which basically committed me to the pot if anyone called or reraised. Note that I had two ways to win some chips here. If everyone folded, I'd pick up $20,000 increasing my stack by 33 percent. A reraise put a lot of pressure on my opponents to make a call without the very best starting hands. If I was called, it is not the end of the world; 7-5 offsuit is only a 2-to-1 dog against two overcards. If you count on your opponent calling with jacks or better, A-K, or A-Q, you are about a 2.5-to-1 underdog. So, even though I might have been called, there was still a decent chance of doubling up. My play was successful, as my opponents folded. I came back after the dinner break and picked up a few blinds, and then hit a big hand with A-A. In a matter of 15-20 minutes of playing time, I went from $60,000 in chips, a below-average stack, to $125,000 in chips, an above-average stack. I was now in position to make a run at winning the tournament. These are the kinds of plays that make you look like either a genius or a donkey who just lost it toward the end of the tourney. For discussion on this article and others, please visit the ITH Forums. |




