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Ian Taylor aka Piemaster


So what is a good reason to stop playing?  If you think back to your last twenty or so sessions, you have probably quit for all kinds of reasons.  To go out with your friends, to get some sleep, to spend some time with your wife, you fancied watching a bit of TV.  In fact most of the time you will quit a session for reasons totally unrelated to poker.  I’m not saying if this is right or wrong, as that would be different for each player.  If you are playing professionally, you obviously need to be far more disciplined than if you are a 10-hours-a-week player who plays mainly for fun.  I’m certainly not getting into the argument of whether your girlfriend is more important than poker, which is entirely outside the scope of this article. 

 

However, what about reasons that are related to the game?  Assuming you have no non-poker distractions to stop you playing, when should you choose to end your session, and when should you carry on?  In fact, there are only two circumstances that should cause you to quit.

 

  • You are not playing your best

     

  • You can’t beat the game

     

 

 

All valid poker-related reasons to quit a session fall into one of these two categories.  Let’s look at them individually to see what they encompass.

 

You are not playing your best

 

There are many reasons why your game may be off.  Maybe you have something else on your mind, maybe you are tilting, maybe you are tired or fatigued, maybe for no real reason you just can’t concentrate.  Whatever the reason, very few players have the ability to play their ‘A-game’ all the time.  If you identify that you are not playing as well as you can, then this is a good time to quit the session.  While players will often start off playing well and deteriorate as the session goes on, very few players will start off playing badly and then get better.  Therefore if you find yourself playing badly then your play is unlikely to improve and is very likely to get worse.  Stop playing now before your bad play loses you money.

 

An argument often cited by players to not quit at this point is:

 

‘Even playing slightly off, I can still beat this game’.

 

In some cases this is true, but you must be very careful for a number of reasons.  First, most players overestimate how much they are beating a game.  Even if you can beat a game for 2BB per hour, one or two pots can make all the difference between a good winning session and a losing one.  Taking the money of lesser players is not inevitable in the short term, and by playing less than your best your chances of having a losing session increase significantly.  You may even become a target for the other strong players at the table who are playing their A-game.  Remember, you don’t have to be the worst player at the table to have a –EV.  Because of the rake, average players will also lose.

 

Secondly if your play is off, it is likely to get worse, and you may just not see the point where you can no longer beat the game.  Unfortunately, many of the reasons your game can be off only get worse with time.  If you are tired, you will get more tired.  If you are tilting, your results will start to deteriorate which will make you tilt even more.  Unfortunately, a lot of the worst poker sessions you will have in your life are likely to be when you don’t realise quite how badly you are playing.  You can nip this problem in the bud by quitting as soon as you notice your game is slightly off.

 

 

 

You can’t beat the game

 

Actually, this should be expanded to ‘you can’t beat the game, or find another table within your bankroll which you can’.  Obviously if you are playing poker to make money, the most important thing to do is to find a table where you have a +EV.  If you are at a bad table, and you can’t find a table that you can beat, then there is no point playing as by doing so you can expect to lose money.  Fortunately for competent low to mid limit Internet players, this is rarely an issue.  Between all the sites there are bound to be a number of tables that you will be able to beat, and it’s just a case of finding the best one.  At higher limits it might be more of an issue, although if you are a winning player at that limit you are still more than likely to be able to find a good table.  Note the clause ‘within your bankroll’.  If you find a very juicy table, which is at limits that are too high for your bankroll to support, then ignore it.  You can do a lot of damage by playing over your head, even at a seemingly good table.

 

Knowing when you are unable to beat a table is an important skill in poker.  Ego often gets in the way and sometimes players are convinced they can beat a table, even when they are clearly outclassed.  This is a mistake even professionals make.  While I can’t tell you exactly how to spot if you are at a bad table (which is an article in itself), there is an old adage that ‘if you can’t spot the sucker within half an hour, then you are the sucker’.  There is a lot of truth in this.  If you don’t spot a number of mistakes from your opponents quite quickly, then you are probably at a bad table.  Something you do need to look out for in particular is when a good table goes bad.  At all except the very low limits, there are normally only a few real fish at each table.  You need to be observant, because it only takes a couple of bad players to leave and a couple of strong players to take their place for a very profitable table to suddenly turn very bad for you.  Fortunately, on the Internet this is only a minor setback.  If you find your table has gone bad, wait until the blinds get to you and then get up and sit down at a better table. 

 

In fact, for all intents and purposes, most Internet players can largely ignore this reason to quit.  The only time it is likely to occur is if you are playing at very high limits or you are a losing player, and if the latter is the case the best move is obviously to not play in the first place.  This basically leaves ‘not playing you’re A-game’ as the only reason to quit a session most of the time.  There are however, two reasons that seem to make sense initially, but on closer inspection actually don’t.  They are both regularly cited by players as a reason for quitting a session, and both are related to how well the session has been going.

 

 

 

Quitting while you’re ahead

 

When I was young, my dad imparted on me what seemed like a great piece of gambling advice.  He said:

 

‘Always quit while you’re ahead’

 

Meaning that if you are gambling and find yourself up a significant amount, you should stop playing.  At first glance this seems like sensible advice, which many players follow at the poker table.  Once they have won a certain amount, they will quit to ensure they don’t lose it again.  Unfortunately doing this may cost you a lot of money in the long run.  If you are winning, it is probably because you are playing well at a table where you have a significant edge.  By walking away from this table, you are forfeiting the chance to exploit your edge even more.  There will be times where you will lose the money you’ve won (poker is gambling after all), but there should be more times where you go on to win even more.  Except in very specific circumstances, quitting when you’re ahead is a bad idea.

 

This all seems quite logical when you think about it, so why do so many people, some of them otherwise good players, follow this ‘quit while you’re ahead’ mantra?  Well, normally it comes down to two main reasons.

 

·         They like to record winning sessions. 

 

·         They know luck evens out in the long run.  They have had good luck or a good run of cards so far, and so they figure now they are due for bad luck or a bad run of cards.

 

The problem is that both of these reasons are severely flawed in their logic.  Recording a winning session does feel good, but how important is any individual session exactly?  Let’s say you begin a session with $100 and by the end have $150; you are happy at having won $50 and so you quit.  For how long though?  Are you never going to play poker again?  If you come back tomorrow night and play again, you still risk losing the $50 just the same as if you carried on playing tonight.  In effect your whole poker career is just one long session, you just ‘take breaks’ at various points.  The point at which you take the break is arbitrary in the long run.  You are no more likely to lose the money now than if you start fresh tomorrow, in fact it is less likely if the reason you are winning is that you are at an especially good table.

 

The second reason makes even less sense.  Not only do you have the ‘one long session’ problem above, but it is also a fundamental misunderstanding of probability.  Cards do not have a memory and they have no sense of justice.  The chance of getting good cards or bad cards is exactly the same regardless of what cards you have had in the past.  For example, the odds of getting dealt a pair of Aces are 1 in 221.  If you get two pairs of aces on the trot (a rare treat indeed), the odds of getting another one the following hand is still 1 in 221.  On the flip side, if you don’t get dealt any pairs of Aces in your first 200 hands, that doesn’t mean you will definitely get one in the next 21 hands, or even that you are more likely to.  While cards and luck do ‘even themselves out in the long run’ this is due to the fact that, as the sample size gets bigger, individual runs of good and bad luck tend to cancel each other out.  There is nothing guaranteed though.  In your next 10,000 hands you will, on average, be dealt around 45 pairs of Aces.  However, you might get 100, or 10 or even none at all (although it is unlikely).  You certainly shouldn’t use good luck in the past as evidence you will get bad luck in the future or vice-versa, and the fact you have been lucky up until now is not a good reason to quit a session.

 

I did mention specific circumstances where you should quit when you’re ahead and they do exist.  The main one is that some players actually play worse when they’re winning.  This is a form of tilt, and usually occurs when players are running well and start to think they are invincible.  This leads to them playing questionable hands and chasing without correct pot-odds.  If you suffer from this kind of tilt then quitting while you are ahead is not a bad idea, although far better would be learning to control the problem.  Note though, that this comes under the ‘not playing your best’ reason to quit above, and has nothing to do with how much you have won, even though this may be the cause. 

 

 

 

Quitting while you are behind

 

This is an interesting one, because many good players, even professionals advocate doing it.  It can be difficult to understand why because, on the face of it, quitting solely because you are behind makes no more sense than quitting while you are ahead.  If you are at a good table, that in the long term you can expect to beat, you certainly want to stay at that table.  In fact, it could be argued that it is more important to stay at the table if you are losing.  In many games, the poor recreational players sit down with short stacks, and often quit when that money has run out.  If you are losing due to taking a lot of bad beats from these players, then it is likely that there is more money at the table in the hands of bad players.  This makes the table even more desirable from a good players point of view.  Also unless you are quitting poker for good, there is no reason not to carry on playing now rather than tomorrow.  The ‘one long session’ principle applies here, just as much as when you are winning.

 

If this is the case then why do so many great players (Howard Lederer is an example) advocate quitting after losing a certain number of big bets?  Are these players just wrong?  Well not exactly, let’s look back to our two good reasons for quitting.

 

·         You are not playing your best

 

·         You can’t beat the game

 

While the fact that you are losing is not a good reason to quit in itself, it can be a good reason to assess if the above factors are an issue or may become an issue.

 

·         Losing can cause you to tilt.  Once you are tilting, you are not playing your best game and you should quit.

 

·         You may get obsessed with ‘trying to get even’.  This can cause you to start playing marginal hands to achieve that goal (a form of tilt), and also may cause you to keep playing while you are tired or fatigued.  In both of these cases you won’t be playing your best game, hence you should quit.

 

·         It may be that the reason you are losing is because you are at a bad table and just don’t realise it. You can’t actually beat the game, hence you should find another table, or quit if none are available.

 

·         Because of the losses you have sustained, you may now be playing above your bankroll. You should leave the table and find one at a lower limit, or quit if there are none available.

 

The advice to set a stop loss limit is not bad advice; it is just an application of the two reasons I have already given.  In fact, it is good advice for a lot of players, especially relative beginners who do not have full reign on their emotions or the experience to objectively decide when they are out of their depth.  However, if you are losing but still playing within your bankroll, and you know you can beat the game, then should you quit?  No way!  Keep playing and exploit your edge.  A disciplined, winning player should know when the game is good and their own game is good and be able to keep playing.

 

In summary, most sessions you will end for reasons completely outside the realm of the game.  However, if you are in a good game and are playing well, then don’t quit for the wrong reasons.  The only valid poker-related reasons for quitting a session is you are off your game or are in a bad game with no others available.  Don’t let insignificant details like how much you have won or lost affect your decision.

 

Ian Taylor, aka Piemaster

 

 

 

 
  
 

 

While many players will tell you that they never go on tilt, this is rarely (if ever) true. What they probably mean is they never notice they are going on tilt and/or they don’t tilt very badly. Very few people have the ability to play their A-game all the time and in all circumstances, even professionals. If you notice you are tilting in a ring game, or even that you may be about to, the best response is nearly always to stop playing. While you may be able to control and beat it, if in doubt it is far better to go for a walk, watch some TV or take your frustration out on the pedestrians in Grand Theft Auto. Your bankroll will thank you for it in the long run. Tilting in a tournament is a far trickier proposition. Here there is no value at all in quitting and you must adopt a more hands on approach to tilt management. That however is a topic for another article.

 

There are many different forms of tilt, and the only thing they have in common is they cause the person tilting to play at less than their best. This article will identify and explore the most common forms of tilt, while next month the second article in this series will look at some of the rarer forms.

Loose Tilt

 

Loose tilt is probably the most common form of tilt, and causes you to continue with hands you should be folding. Pre-flop this will translate as playing bad or mediocre hands out of position. If the tilt is only slight, it may just be that you start calling with KJo from early position or ATo in middle position to a raise. However, when on a bad loose tilt, you may find yourself playing all kinds of garbage from any position. Post flop, loose tilt will result in chasing draws you don’t have the pot odds to chase, and calling down with clearly beaten hands.

 

Cause

 

Loose tilt is so common because it involves a reversion to something that most poker players want to do by instinct, i.e. stay in the hand. All poker players enjoy winning pots, and you can’t win a pot once you’ve folded, which is why most beginner’s biggest mistake is to not fold enough both pre and post-flop. Any event or chain of events that makes a player more desperate to win a pot than normal, or makes them feel they are more likely to win a pot than they are, will leave them more vulnerable to loose tilt. Unfortunately there are many events that can do this, of which the main ones are.

 

· Trying to get even, while ‘stuck’ for the session

· Overconfidence caused by a good streak of luck or playing with bad players.

· Frustration due to bad beats (steaming)

· Impatience and frustration due to not getting a playable hand and/or winning a pot for a long time.

Detection and Prevention

 

Anything similar to the following thought processes may lead to this kind of tilt or be the first signs of it.

 

‘I’m almost certainly beat here, but if the river is (insert miracle card here) then I will be almost even for the night.’

‘I’ve got to call here, I’m running hot at the moment; all my draws are coming in’

‘These players are terrible. I can play more hands here and outplay them after the flop.’

‘They keep winning with awful cards, so I can too’

‘I know I shouldn’t play this hand from this position but I’m desperate to get back on track after that beat’

‘K-5 suited? Compared with what I have been getting, that’s practically a pair of aces!’

 

Preventing this kind of tilt is nearly always a matter of discipline. If you follow a list of starting hand charts (from Internet Texas Holdem or another source) then you will be far less prone to pre-flop loose tilt, as it will be stated in black and white that you should fold. The same can be said of people who religiously calculate pot odds and apply this to post-flop call or fold decisions.

 

The problem comes when you are one of those players who play from ‘feel’. These players will create a justification in their mind for their actions, and will often not even realise they are tilting until they look at their hand histories. If you are one of these players, you need to identify your individual triggers that cause you to make loose calls. All players are different and, for example, some players are great at handling bad beats but their play always deteriorates when they are winning. If you look through your hand histories and notice loose play, try to remember what you were feeling at the time. This should provide some clues as to what triggered the tilt, and if you find yourself in the same situation, you can quit the game before it starts costing you money.

Passive Tilt

 

Passive tilt will cause you to check and call when you should be betting and raising. As a result, you will not be getting value out of your good hands and will not protect your hand properly, causing you to get drawn out on more. This can potentially be very damaging to a player because it can be a difficult type of tilt to detect and will normally kick in when you are already losing.

 

Cause

 

Passive Tilt can have a number of triggers but all normally come down to you being overwhelmed or scared by the game you are in. The particular trigger might be playing at a new (higher) limit, playing in a game where you think you are outclassed, playing above your bankroll or losing confidence after taking a beating. As a result, you may find yourself playing more passively for either of the below reasons:

 

· You will tend to assume you are beaten in the face of any aggression unless you have the absolute nuts.

· You are scared to put in too many raises, because you are worried about how much money it will cost you if you lose.

 

Passive tilt can be a vicious circle. If you start to play more passively, this may give your opponents an opportunity to draw out on you. This may, in turn, cause you to play even more passively for the second reason above.

Detection and Prevention

 

Anything similar to the following thought processes may lead to this kind of tilt or be the first signs of it.

 

‘A raise would cost me $10. That’s a lot of money!’

‘I have a good hand but there is a chance he may have me beat. Had better just call it down’

‘There are a lot of dollars in this pot, I’d be happy just to win it as it is, no need to raise’

‘I’m just going to call it down and hope for the best, I don’t want to tangle with this guy.’

 

Given that this type of tilt is nearly always caused by a loss of confidence or intimidation, the key to prevention is not playing in games in which you feel outclassed, intimidated or out of your depth. If you are prone to this, make sure that you leave games where you don’t feel comfortable and always make sure you have a large bankroll for the limit you are playing. Maybe instead of 250 big bets, you should aim for 300 or 350. This will ensure that you have enough money that you won’t be scared to put in a raise when a raise is called for. Also, when you do move up a limit, don’t be afraid to move back down again if you don’t feel comfortable. While jumping around limits too much isn’t a good thing, there is no shame in dropping back down if things don’t go well immediately. You can ruin a hard-earned bankroll by playing at a limit where you are not comfortable, and this is often caused by playing too passively.

 

Formulaic Tilt

 

(Thanks to the ITH off-topic forum for this name)

 

 

A player on formulaic tilt will play almost on automatic without really paying due attention to the specific state of the game. The result of this is not usually catastrophic, especially in low to mid limit hold’em. In fact, many players have found it profitable to play formulaically on many tables at once rather than optimally at just one or two. It is however also a form of tilt, and can affect all players from time to time. It will cause you to play ‘by the book’ even when this is not the best way given the specific players involved.

 

For example, you may fold A-J pre-flop to a raise, even though there are no other callers and the raiser has raised 8 of the last 10 hands. Alternatively you may re-raise with JJ even though the raising player is a rock, who only raises the flop 1% of the time. Post flop you will make similar mistakes, folding to players who bet with nothing and calling down with a marginal hand against a very passive player. The situations in which you are badly hurt by formulaic tilt will not occur often, and the decision will often be marginal, but it can cost you bets and will sometimes cost you a pot.

 

Cause

Formulaic tilt generally occurs when your attention is not entirely focussed on the game. This is often unavoidable when playing four tables (or more) but can occur needlessly for other reasons. Maybe you are distracted by something else (especially poignant when playing on the internet) or maybe you are just bored. Tiredness/fatigue is also a big cause of formulaic tilt, as it will lead to your mind working less than optimally even when you are doing your best to concentrate on the game.

Detection and Prevention

 

It is difficult to list the particular thought processes that lead to this form of tilt, as it is generally caused more by a lack of thought. I suppose the closest we can come is to say that if you are thinking hard about something other than poker and specifically the game in front of you then you are probably suffering from formulaic tilt.

 

What is easier however, is spotting when you are suffering from this form of tilt. Look for the following as signs.

 

  • You have been playing with one or more opponents for 50 hands or more, yet you don’t know anything about his/their play-style without looking at Poker Tracker.
  • You just responded to a bet without looking where the bet came from and who made it.
  • You have no idea who at your table has won or lost money since you’ve been at the table.
  • You are playing on multiple tables and still trying to surf the net, read your emails or watch TV.

 

To prevent this type of tilt you really need to be disciplined about how you play the game and not allow yourself any distractions. Turn the TV off, don’t have any programs open on your PC other than poker software, switch your phone onto answer-phone. If you are tired or can’t concentrate for some reason then take a break or call it a night. When you are not involved in a hand, rather than letting your mind wander, watch the other players and see if you can pick up any tendencies. Look at not only what hands they show down, but think back to see how they betted with those hands on all streets. Make detailed notes using the in-game notes feature and don’t just rely on information given to you by Poker Tracker.

 

That wraps it up for the most common forms of tilt. Next month we will look at the second article in this series which takes a closer look at more uncommon forms of tilt you will need to be aware of. Until then, make sure you don’t ruin your hard earned bankroll with half an hour of madness.

 

Ian Taylor (aka Piemaster)

 
Tight Tilt

Tight Tilt will cause you to fold too much, turning down situations where you have positive expectation from a call or raise. While the cliché often used for this type of tilt is ‘waiting for aces’ it is not normally that extreme. Normally it will be the only slightly profitable hands such as JTs from middle position, 88 from early position, and middle pairs on the flop (obviously situation specific) that the player will muck. Because of this, the lost value as a result of this form of tilt is generally marginal and your win rate will not suffer much because of it. In fact, occasionally players will intentionally start to play too tight in situations where they might normally be prone to a more destructive form of tilt, and this can be a money saving solution. Remember though, that leaving the table is nearly always the best solution in ring games when you find yourself on tilt.

Cause

If you start to play tighter, it is usually for one of two reasons. You have either become more scared of losing, meaning you are willing to sacrifice value for lower variance, or you have lost confidence in certain hands (either a particular type of hand or just marginal holdings in general). Unfortunately, there are many psychological reasons why either of these may be the case, the following are the most common.

· You are playing above your bankroll

· You are playing at a new higher limit and are determined not to lose heavily.

· You have won money in the session and don’t want to lose it again.

· You have taken a number of bad beats

· You have had repeated failure to win with a certain type of hand (such as suited connectors, small pairs, straight draws, top pair weak kicker etc)

Detection and Prevention

Anything similar to the following thought processes may lead to this kind of tilt or be the first signs of it.

‘I’m not putting money in with this hand when I will probably have to fold on the flop’

‘I can’t afford to lose a lot of money here, so I’m only going to play with the very best hands.’

‘I’m $100 up in this session. I’m only playing premium hands from now on so I don’t blow it.’

‘May as well fold. The way my luck is going, he’s bound to have me beat.’

‘I’ve missed with my last 10 flush draws, I think I’ll just fold this one before it gets expensive.’

The key to preventing this type of tilt, as with many other kinds, is to treat each hand as a completely separate game, forgetting anything that has happened so far that evening. The fact is, playing a hand when you are on a tear and up 50BB has exactly the same chances of developing in any given way as if you are on a 50BB slump. As soon as you find you are playing a hand differently because of how a session is going or how previous hands have gone you are tilting.

On the other hand, if you are going to tilt then playing tightly is probably the best way to do it because what you are giving up in value is very marginal. It can be potentially dangerous if you realise you are on tight tilt and try to correct the problem, only to overcompensate. In fact, if you are playing in a tournament where quitting the session is not an option, you may want to continue to play especially tight until you are sure you have your emotions under control.

Aggressive Tilt

A player on an aggressive tilt will regularly bet and raise when they should be checking and calling. The problem usually manifests itself in the overplaying of marginal hands (such as bottom and middle pair on the flop) or trying to buy the pot too frequently or when it should be clear your opponent has a hand. Severity is obviously related to how much you do it, and it is most dangerous when combined with loose tilt. This form of tilt can be very costly, because it can cost you many big bets in a single hand. Good players will wait for a good hand and will then bleed you for large pot after large pot, while folding when they don’t have a hand. On the plus side, sometimes you can go on a tear, making the rest of the table scared of you, and actually win money. Don’t count on it though.

Cause

There are two real causes for this kind of tilt. The first is when you simply lose it. You have taken one bad beat too many and emotion takes over causing you to lose all objectivity, you just want to shove all your chips in the middle and hope for the best. This is a situation where your bankroll can really be at risk if you’re not careful. The second cause of aggressive tilt is a little more subtle. Somehow you will get it into your head that you need to be more aggressive. Maybe you have been drawn out on a few times, or maybe the few times you have shown aggression, your opponents have folded. Whatever the reason, you make an ill advised deviation from your normal game, and before you know it you are piling chips in the middle, while your opponents re-raise you with superior hands.

Often your misplaced aggression will be directed at a particular player. This can be a legitimate tactic when you have identified that player as weak or a habitual bluffer, but too often ego will get in the way and you can find yourself frequently raising a particular player just because you don’t like them for some reason. Obviously this is just playing into the hands of your nemesis if they are smart.

Detection and Prevention

Anything similar to the following thought processes may lead to this kind of tilt or be the first signs of it.

‘Sod it, I’ve lost $300 tonight already, what does it matter if I lose more’

‘My opponents are playing with worse hands than me on average. I should always raise for value’

‘If I keep raising, they’ll have to put me on a big hand and fold’

‘My hands never hold up in these multi-way pots. From now on, I’m going to raise even with marginal hands pre-flop’

‘I raised with Aces and everyone folded, they might as well have been 7-2!’

‘He keeps raising me! From now on I’m going to raise him back.’

The reason this type of tilt is rare is because aggression is generally a good thing, and for most players the problem is not being aggressive enough. To prevent this type of tilt, you need to remember why aggression is good so you can spot the circumstances in which it isn’t. The purpose of raising as opposed to calling is the following.

  • For value when you have a pot equity edge
  • To protect your hand against draws
  • As a bluff or semi-bluff

Therefore you should only raise if you feel one of these is applicable. If you think there is a good chance you are behind and there is no real chance of forcing a fold, then you normally have no business raising. In a lot of hands, all the aggression in the world will not win you the pot and you just have to accept that.

FPS Tilt

FPS is an acronym for ‘Fancy Play Syndrome’ and is a term used to describe when a player makes a tricky play when a more straightforward one would be better. While everyone is affected by FPS occasionally, it is also a form of tilt, and players can find themselves making a string of ‘FPS plays’ without realising they are tilting. The two main examples of FPS are sandbagging with a big hand and playing aggressively with a marginal holding (or even nothing). Note that is not to say that these two things are definitively bad, just that often players do it when they should be making the more obvious play. Sometimes a player will lose sight of his primary goal (maximising profit) completely and will make plays because they ‘look good’ or similar.

Cause

It is sometimes difficult to see why players fall victim to FPS, but it is generally either because they are having a bad time at the table and are trying to ‘make things happen’ or they are having an especially good time and get overconfident. Either can cause a player to completely forget or ignore what kind of players they are playing with, and attempt the sort of fancy moves that are either lost on them or they can see right through. Playing at lower limits than usual can often contribute towards FPS tilt. At the low limits you should usually play more straightforwardly, yet the comparatively low stakes may actually cause you to play trickier as you are less concerned about losing.

Detection and Prevention

Anything similar to the following thought processes may lead to this kind of tilt or be the first signs of it.

‘I’m not getting good value out of my premium hands, I need to disguise them more.’

‘These players are rocks, I’m sure I can get them to lay down a lot of their hands with some tricky play.’

‘If this works it will be the sexiest play ever!’

This type of tilt is rare, and preventing it is often just a case of training yourself to keep it simple. At the lower limits of poker, the obvious play is very rarely wrong. To clarify this, there is sometimes a better play based on astute readings of the particular player or situation but by making the ‘by the book’ play you are rarely giving up much in value. Consider these two examples:

1. You hold 33 in the big blind. An EP player raises, there is one caller, and you call. The flop comes 995r. You check, the pre-flop raiser bets and the other caller folds. What is your play?

2. You hold JJ in the cut-off. An MP player limps, you raise, the button, the big blind and the limper all call. The flop comes down AJ6r. The big blind checks and the MP player bets, what is your play?

In both hands above there is an obvious play, fold in the first hand and raise in the second. In both hands there may be a better play depending on the reads you have on your opponents and the specific situation. In the first example, if your opponent is a solid player who can lay down a hand, a check-raise may work, and if your opponents in the second hand are especially tight and/or aggressive then you may smooth call here. However, in both hands the obvious play is not far wrong and will often be the best play. Except in very extreme circumstances, you will not be giving up much by making the obvious play in the above examples, and this is true for most hands until you reach high limits.

Because of this, the best way of avoiding strange bouts of FPS tilt is by making the obvious ‘by the book’ play as often as possible. Protect your hand and build a pot when you think you are ahead, fold if you suspect you are behind and drawing slim and call if you have a good drawing hand and have the pot odds to do so.

Remember that all forms of tilt exist only in the mind. By being disciplined and prepared, and by playing within a sensible bankroll structure you will help protect yourself from most forms of tilt. Play for the long term and don’t let any hand get inside your head for too long. And remember the golden rule. If you feel yourself beginning to tilt, get up from the table and walk away.

Ian Taylor (aka Piemaster)

 

He stayed on the team, because here in the UK we don’t let a small thing like lack of talent get in the way of a man’s dreams, but even with our liberal Wide Receiver rotation, he didn’t get any play time to speak of and spent all his time on the sidelines as effectively as cheerleader in full kit.

2005 - Poker is going through a huge boom. More people than ever are playing both in card rooms and on the Internet, and it has become not only socially acceptable but also ‘cool’. In the last year, I have had lots of friends and work colleagues asking me about online poker and how to get into the game. People who five years ago would never have considered playing poker are now taking up the game and that’s great.

Most of the time

But a poker player, like a football player, requires certain skills and traits to be successful. For the most part poker is a very inclusive sport and most of the skills to become a successful player can be learned through teaching or through practice. However, there are certain people who will never become successful poker players not through lack of effort, but because something about their personality will forever hold them back. These players may still be drawn to the game like moths to a flame, lured by the money that their friends are making (or at least claim to be making), but they will end up disappointed.

The following is a guide to the mental traits that are most likely to hold you back in your quest to be a successful poker player. If you identify too many of these traits in a friend, don’t encourage them to play poker. If you identify too many of them in yourself, reconsider whether poker really is the game for you.

1. A Clinical Aversion to Math

Poker is at base level, a game about numbers. How many outs do you have? What pots odds are you getting? What is your pot equity? How much should you bet to make it unprofitable for draws to call you? What are the chances of being dealt a particular hand? What is the probability of making your hand by the river?

It is not necessary to be a maths genius in order to be a successful poker player, in fact you don’t need any qualifications at all. What you do have to do is at least pay lip service to the numbers. Can you work out how many outs you have? As a result can you work out if a call is profitable? If you can’t then you are going to have huge leaks in your game. Nearly all successful poker players, whether they admit it or not, will use a lot of rudimentary maths in their game. People who get a headache trying to calculate a 15% tip need not apply.

2. Lack of Discipline

Ask a winning poker player what the most important attribute is in order to be successful and discipline nearly always crops up. These days it is easy to get information on how to play well or at least competently, but this is no good at all if you don’t have the patience and discipline to make the plays you know are right. Most winning players only beat the game by a few big bets per hour. A –EV hand played here, a loose call there, a minor bout of tilt somewhere else and you are no longer a winning player. People who are easily bored, action junkies or impulsive are likely to bring these habits to the poker table and are unlikely to be able to adjust to the grind of being a winning poker player.

3. Myopia

Playing successful poker is all about the long term, and it is all too easy to forget this. The fact of the matter is your results over 100 hands, or 500, or 1,000, or even 5,000 are almost irrelevant. Most good players argue that it Is not until you have played over 10,000 hands that you even have a good idea whether you are a winning player or not. While most players suffer from myopia (or ‘short-sightedness’) occasionally, if you are the type of person who is not willing to look beyond your last session you will have big problems as you progress as you will not be able to put your downswings or indeed your upswings in proper perspective. You will find yourself making ill-advised decisions such as moving up a limit too early, changing your game unnecessarily and over or undervaluing certain hands or holdings based upon your short-term results.

4. Emotional Imbalance

Tilt is a very real danger for the poker player. Literally months of hard work can be undone by few hours of tilting. Few players have the ability to play their A-game all the time, but it is important to be able to:

a) Recognise when you are tilting

b) Not let your emotions affect your play too much and

c) Know when to walk away

There have been too many tragic stories of otherwise good players who have gone on tilt and wiped out their bankroll.

On a related issue, you have to be able to separate poker from the rest of your life. While poker players dislike bad beat stories, non poker players dislike them even more. If losing at poker makes you so miserable it starts to interfere with work and your personal life then it is probably not the game for you. There are far less stressful ways to make money.

5. Inability to Handle Large Losses

Playing poker is an emotional rollercoaster. Often you will be dealing with winning and losing large amounts of money, which even if you are properly bankrolled, will often be difficult to handle. A 3/6 player can easily lose $500 in an evening without really doing anything wrong, and this might be a month’s rent for some people. Once you are into the realms of 15/30 you are looking at maybe $2000 for a bad session. If you are the kind of person who can’t handle losing these amounts of money then you may want to stick to the low limits, as these kinds of losses are inevitable and unavoidable. Some people can’t stand the thought of losing money at all, and to these people I recommend a different hobby.

6. Dislike of Randomness

Some people like to be in control, and have predictable results to their actions and unfortunately poker is the antithesis of control and predictability. The cards you receive in any given hand, session or even series of sessions are random. So are the hands you are up against, the flop, the turn and the river. This is the games appeal for some and it’s turn-off for others. Because poker is so random, the results you will get are also random. You can play extremely well and win, or you can play extremely badly and lose. Sometimes you can play well and lose more/win less than you would have done by playing badly with the same cards.

To be a good poker player, you need to accept the randomness of the game and make decisions that will most likely make you a winner in the long term, not allowing yourself to be deterred when short-term results do not go your way. If you can’t accept that you can be the best player at the table and still lose, then you would be better off with a game like chess. Otherwise you will become a player who is forever loitering on the rail and on poker forums boring people with bad beat stories.

7. The Need for Instant Success

People are always looking at ways to get rich quick, and to many people poker looks an ideal way to do this. Online poker sites use clever marketing to convince new players that the keys to being successful at poker are not maths, discipline and experience, but bravery, guts and an ability to read people. Because most people think they are brave, gutsy and good at reading people, lots of people assume they can be successful at poker, and get rich quick.

They won’t

Very few people achieve any kind of success at poker without putting a lot of work in. Starting of at the lower limits until they build a bankroll, reading and understanding poker theory, reviewing and scrutinising their play to find out how they can improve and playing through the downswings in order to hit a long term aggregate win rate. It is a long journey, and if anything is harder work than trying to get rich through a regular career.

People who start playing poker in the hope of achieving overnight success inevitably leave broke and disappointed. They will play above their bankroll, play loosely and overestimate their own ability. In short, all the things that will make them sitting ducks to be beaten by the real successful players.

8. Ethical issues

One of the side effects of poker coming into the mainstream is that it is becoming more widely accepted (or at least tolerated) by groups that previously thought of it as shady or even evil. However, the game itself has not changed in this time. It is still gambling and still has the same moral implications as it ever did. If you have moral objections to gambling, then poker is obviously not the game for you but it doesn’t stop there. Before you start playing poker, ask yourself the following question:

‘Could you bust your opponent if you knew the money in front of him is all he has and he needs it to buy food to feed himself and his family?’

If the answer is no then don’t play. It sounds harsh but playing winning poker is a very marginal proposition. If you go soft on an opponent you are wiping out your profit margin. Even good internet players generally only win around 2BB per hour, and so even something simple like not raising the river when you are almost certain you are ahead will cost you at least half an hours play.

For some people, playing on the Internet makes this ethical conundrum easier to handle. They can’t see their opponent and so they don’t have to think about who they might be playing against and what their circumstances might be, but this is really only putting the problem to one side. When you reach the higher limits and see someone blow $2,000 in an hour how will you react? What if they leave the table with the comment ‘damn, that was my entire pay-cheque’? How will that make you feel? Unless you are thinking something like ‘I don’t care’ or ‘It’s a shame but it’s not my problem’ you are probably not well suited to being a poker player.

Conclusion

Things worked out okay for my football buddy in the end. He made a few friends, got some exercise on a Wednesday afternoon and had something impressive to tell women in the bar, because a bad football player just has to put up with the frustration of not getting on the field. A bad poker player has to cope with financial losses, often large ones. It is just as important to know what makes a bad poker player as what makes a good one.

Ian Taylor (aka Piemaster)

 

 

Four types of table will be covered, these being loose, passive, tight and aggressive. Note that these terms are all relative and the advice will have to be interpreted according to the extent that the table has that characteristic. For example, if you play in a micro-limit game, nearly all tables will be loose, at least to an extent. Also note that a table may have two different characteristics, for example ‘Loose/Aggressive’ or ‘Tight/Passive’. In this case you will need to heed the advice from both sections, which may cause contradictions. If in doubt, you will never be going far wrong by following the default advice in Internet Texas Holdem.

Loose Table

Characteristics

A loose table is characterised by lots of people seeing the flop and players continuing with unprofitable holdings after the flop.

Adjustments

Loose tables tend to be profitable in the long run but can also be very swingy. With lots of people in each hand and many staying to the river, there is plenty of opportunity to get drawn out on but the pots should be bigger when you do win. As a result, starting hands that tend to make ‘top pair, good kicker’ type holdings have less value as top pair holds up far less often in multi-way pots. Off-suit hands such as KJ, QJ and AT probably shouldn’t be played from early position anyway, and this should be enforced even more rigorously in loose games. However, hands such as small pocket pairs and suited connectors play very well in multi-way pots. You should be happy to call with 66 or JTs UTG in a loose game because even if it is raised behind you, you are probably going to be getting good odds to hit a set or a good draw respectively. In fact, being suited is a much more important asset for a hand in loose games. For example, in a tight game AKo and AKs are very similar in value, whereas in a loose game, AKs is by far the better holding.

In loose games, raising for value becomes much more important than raising to drive out opponents for two reasons:

1. Your opponents will probably not fold to your raise anyway

2. Given your opponents will be playing a much wider range of hands than you, it is important to get extra bets in when you are likely to have the best of it.

Some people shy away from making pure value raises (like raising AQ or JJ from the BB in an un-raised pot) but it is important to do so in loose games.

Post flop you need to value raise relentlessly when you feel you have good pot equity to make players pay for their weak draws. You also have to be a lot more open-minded when considering your opponents holdings. A loose opponent who suddenly wakes up on the river with a rainbow board of 8 9 K 2 6 may indeed have the T7 or 75 he is representing. Or he may have K6, or 66 or AK or a host of other holdings. The reverse is also true. If you have a marginal holding, sometimes you have to keep value betting it, because your opponents may be calling with an even weaker holding or a draw. You cannot make the same assumptions about loose player’s cards that you can with tight opponents.

Remember also that draws to the nuts are far more valuable when you have lots of opponents (and hence a large pot). If you are the kind of person who tends to throw away gut-shot straights without thinking about it, take a minute to check if you are getting the pot-odds to draw. In loose games you will more often than you think.

Passive Table Characteristics

On a passive table, there will be a lot more checking and calling going on than betting and raising both pre-flop and post-flop. True passive tables are uncommon at anything but the lowest limits, as it only takes a couple of aggressive players to tip the balance.

Adjustments

Passive tables are also good for your bankroll, generally speaking. If your opponents are not playing aggressively you can get cheap or free cards more often, when you are behind you will lose less and your hands will be easier to get away from if your opponent does have a big hand. Importantly, a passive table will also allow you to play more hands from early position. If there is very little chance of a raise (or re-raise) behind you, you can play those hands that only want to see the flop for one bet such as QJo and ATo. In fact, you can be a bit more liberal with the hands you play full stop as all hands play better when you have a better than usual chance of getting free cards post-flop. Obviously don’t take this too far though.

Post-flop at passive tables can be frustrating because it is very difficult to put your opponents on a hand. If your opponents are calling you down, you don’t know if they have a marginal holding, are on a draw, or have you beat but just aren’t raising. You have to make sure you don’t fall into the trap of repeatedly betting with a marginal hand and ending up losing more than you should have, because you figured your opponents must be weak. Remember, passive players generally act weak regardless of their holding.

On the other hand, you can often bet passive players into submission with position. The ploy of raising the flop with a draw or marginal hand to get a free card on the turn works especially well at passive tables. You can also make marginal calls with people left to act, as the chance of a raise is considerably less. Of course, if passive players wake up and start raising you can drop your hand pretty quickly, confident that you are beat.

Tight Table Characteristics

A tight table will have very few players seeing the flop and those who do will ditch marginal holdings at the first opportunity.

Adjustments

First things first, if you find yourself at a tight table at anything lower than 10/20 get out of there. Tight tables are bad choices for winning money as you will typically have to fight tooth and nail for every dollar, and there are enough looser tables out there that you don’t want to be doing that. However there may be times in a tournament or maybe just in a tight game where you feel you have an edge (generally tight/passive) that you might want to play on.

The key to winning money at tight tables is to identify the pots that nobody else wants and win them, regardless of your cards. When you only have a few people seeing the flop, there will often be hands where nobody gets dealt playable cards and flops that nobody hits, and often the first money in the pot will win it. This makes position extremely important, as it is far easier to steal a pot when you are the last to act, than when you have people to act behind you who may have legitimate hands. It is important you make the following adjustments pre-flop

  1. Tighten up from early position. If you play hands like ATo from EP you are likely to find yourself up against a dominating hand out of position.
  2. Look for opportunities to steal the blinds whenever possible. It is a good rule of thumb never to limp first in because a raise first in may win the blinds if nobody else has a playable hand.
  3. Loosen up considerably from late position if you are first in, raising to either steal the blinds or get heads up with position.

You also need to look at the type of hands you are playing. Top Pair is far more likely to hold up with only two or three players seeing the flop, so any hand that contains two high cards goes up in value, even those that are normally unexciting such as KJo. On the other hand, holdings that thrive with multi-way action such as suited connectors become far less playable. JTs can be a very profitable hand when you have four opponents, but is far less so when you only have one opponent who is almost certain to have two big cards or a mid-high pocket pair.

Post flop, the same principles apply. Try to steal the pots that nobody else wants while getting out quickly when you feel you are behind. At a tight-aggressive table it is often difficult to tell when you are behind and this is what makes tight-aggressive players so difficult to play against. If the table is tight-passive it is normally far easier to get away from your hand.

Remember, the one advantage you have at tight tables is that it is easier to put your opponents on a hand. If the pot is raised pre-flop and the final board is 7 4 K 6 3, you can be fairly confident that nobody has the 5, whereas this would be far from the case at looser tables. It is important to remember the action from the entire hand so you can think back to how your opponents acted on each street, and put them on a hand or range of hands accordingly.

Aggressive Table

Characteristics

Lots of betting and raising before and after the flop define an aggressive table. This can either be as a result of good aggressive play or a couple of maniacs raising every hand.

Adjustments

It can be tough to play on an aggressive table because:

1. When facing a bet with people to act, it is difficult to determine how much it will cost to see the next street.

2. Because people are raising with all kinds of holdings, it can be difficult to put them on a hand.

3. Facing multiple bets often makes your draws unprofitable.

Step one when at an aggressive table is working out whether it is loose or misplaced aggression which can be exploited or whether it’s good tight aggressive play in which case you should really be looking to move table. If it is bad aggressive play, the important thing is to identify the perpetrators. While aggressive play can be contagious to an extent, the majority of the raising is normally carried out by two or three maniacs at the most. Identify these players, and obviously treat their raises with far less respect than you would the other players.

In an aggressive game position is very important. Basically in early position you only want to be playing hands where you don’t mind having to pay another one or maybe even two bets to see the flop, which effectively limits you to AA-TT , AK and AQs. If you can keep the maniacs close you your right then this will help matters but this isn’t always possible. Isolation moves are also very important in aggressive games. If a very aggressive player raises and you re-raise, that can keep many other players out, hopefully leaving you heads up against an inferior hand with position.

Post flop in an aggressive game is extremely difficult. You are caught between two bad places of putting in two many bets with a marginal holding and folding winning hands, which can make a medium tricky to find. If you have a marginal draw it is important to look at how many players are left to act before calling, as a raise behind you could make your draw unprofitable. Isolating moves still work well after the flop and can be very useful if you have a decent but very vulnerable hand such as middle pair on an uncoordinated board. Another advantage is that if you truly have a monster, you won’t have to do much betting, your opponents will probably not realise you have a monster until it is too late.

A Final Word of Caution

When following any of the advice in this article, be careful how and to whom you are applying it. Just because you are on a loose table, doesn’t mean every single player at that table is loose. Don’t get it into your head that your opponent is loose when you are in fact heads up with the local rock. Also look for the table conditions changing. Players move in and out of games very quickly online and a table can radically change in texture in just a couple of orbits. This is especially true on loose tables where good players are attracted by the high average pot size and fill up the empty seats as the looser players bust out. You can find yourself staying at a bad table way too long if you are not paying attention.

Good luck at the tables

Ian Taylor (aka Piemaster)

 

 

Some decisions, both game and non-game, are relatively easy to make while others are more difficult. Everyone makes bad decisions from time to time, but the key to being successful is to make as few as possible. It is from poorer players frequent bad decisions that better players make their long-term profit.

So if the key to poker is to making as few mistakes (bad decisions) as possible, how can we avoid making them? Well we can’t, at least not completely. Poker is a complex enough game that even the best players will make mistakes from time to time, and often it is very difficult to determine what the best course of action is at all, even after heavy analysis. All we can do is make the best decision we can in any situation, taking into account as many variables as possible and drawing fully on our knowledge and experience.

But what if I were to tell you that there are certain decisions you could make that would almost never be wrong, and even if they were it would be by a very small amount? And what if I told you that despite this, many players choose to make the opposite decision with alarming regularity? Well read on because in this article I have three decisions that can be made remarkably easy.

1. Not showing your cards

The only time in poker you are required to show your hand is if you are still in the hand when it is called on the river. Yet players come up with all kinds of justification for showing their opponents their cards at other times.

‘I wanted my opponent to see how he sucked out on me’

‘I wanted to show the table a bluff to improve my table image’

‘I wanted to show I had a genuine hand and was not bluffing’

‘I wanted to show the monster I had’

I’m sure that some of these reasons sound convincing. Hell, they sound pretty convincing to me, and the second and third ones especially may have some strategic value. Professional players will often do it at the highest level when playing against other professional players, and I’m sure they have very good reasons for doing so. But why make things complicated for yourself? Not showing your cards is never wrong and to be honest, unless you are a world-class psychiatrist, you probably can’t spot the few times when showing your cards is beneficial. To fully evaluate the impact of showing down a hand you have to know:

· Which players are even paying attention (especially pertinent on the internet)

· Of the players paying attention, which ones will attempt to make generalisations on your play based on you showing this hand

· Of these, how will they play differently against you as a result?

All of these factors can be difficult to determine and the last one especially so. Often when you show down a hand you may be doing a lot more harm than good. This is best illustrated with an example. Let’s say you have KdJh in the cutoff and it is folded to you. You raise, and both blinds call. Flop is AsQhTs, it is checked to you and you bet. SB check-raises, BB folds, you call. Turn is the Queen of spades, SB bets, you raise, SB calls. River is a blank, SB checks, you bet, SB folds and you show your flopped straight in an effort to show the table you had a genuine hand and were not just trying to make a play.

However, if someone really is monitoring you and adapting to your play, what have you just told them?

· You will try to steal the blinds from late position with any half decent hand.

· You are capable of slow-playing the flop with the nuts, but you don’t go for the suspicious ‘raise pre-flop then check it through’ manoeuvre.

· You don’t automatically go passive when confronted with a scare card

That is a whole lot of information you have just given the table in order to try to engineer them into an over-reaction. Information is a powerful tool in poker and giving people free information in the hope that they misuse it is a very dangerous thing to do indeed. Why not save yourself the trouble and just muck your hand, leave your opponents wondering if you were bluffing or not.

2. Keeping quiet

Play in any online poker room and you will see a wide range of table chat, ranging from the social ‘where are you from?’ kind of chat, through discussions about the previous hand, insults about each others play and even hurtful personal remarks that would earn people an ejection from a brick and mortar card room. When hiding behind the anonymity of the Internet, it is very tempting to just say what you think at any given time, but is it always wise to do so? Well certainly the personal remarks aren’t because they could get you banned from the site for very little appreciable result, but what of the rest?

Well the potential to increase your earn rate through strategic table chat is, at best, debatable. Personally I have used table chat in an effort to tilt another player, mislead opponents about my own play skill or stop a player who I am feeding off of being harassed away from the table. However, it is very rare that I notice any appreciable reward for my troubles. On the other hand, the penalty for inadvertently giving away needless information over table chat is potentially large. For example, by criticising someone else’s play you are potentially flagging information about your own play to the better players at the table, which can be costly. Plus of course you may scare away the bad player and that’s not really what you want is it?

Given all the potential negative effects of table chat, you will be happy to know that there is practically zero damage that can be done by just keeping quiet. Don’t respond to insults, questions about your hand or queries on your play and you will reveal nothing and probably annoy the perpetrator in the process. As an added bonus you will get less distracted and so will be making better decisions. Note that some people elect to disable table chat for this reason. However I would argue that monitoring table chat to pick up information about your opponents is a valuable tool. If your opponents are going to give up free information, you might as well use it.

3. Hard playing a good hand

In other words, betting, raising or check-raising when you think you are ahead. In this day and age, most players like to add some deception to their game by slow-playing their big hands. Many people will, as a matter of course, check-call their flopped sets, trips, straights and flushes, and some even slow-play top pair, top kicker type hands. This can be a legitimate strategy, but is fraught with problems:

· So many people slow-play big hands, that the deception now has very little value. Nobody will assume that you can’t have a monster based on passive play on the flop, and in many circumstances it actually looks suspicious.

· By not betting and raising at every opportunity, you may be giving your opponents the opportunity to outdraw you.

· If your opponent also has a good hand, you may be missing out on several bets.

· If you are actually beaten, it may prevent you from spotting this.

This is not saying that slow-playing is not a good tool to have in your armoury, merely that it is very overused. It is my opinion that in limit Hold’em, playing a good hand hard is never wrong. There are hands that it may be wrong with hindsight, but these are difficult to identify at the time. It would require one of the following to occur:

· One of your opponents to improve on the turn (but not overtake you) that would have folded to your flop aggression.

· Driving out opponents by forcing them to pay multiple bets when they would have continued to pay single bets, while at the same time not have them outdraw you.

· One or more opponents betting/raising the turn or river when they wouldn’t, had you shown more aggression on previous streets.

Now all of these scenarios are possible, but even collectively not terribly likely. By betting and raising at every opportunity, you will protect your hand, while allowing you to win the maximum possible if your opponent also has a hand. You will be hard pushed to find a good player who will criticise you for doing this.

With all three decisions mentioned here you have an opportunity to make an easy and unglamorous play that has the added bonus of almost never being wrong. In a complex game full of complex decisions, why not give yourself a break and make an easy one once in a while.

Ian Taylor, aka Piemaster

 

Pot Equity

Pot equity is not - the same as pot odds. Nor is it in any way related to how much money you have put in the pot.

Pot equity is – an expression of the proportion of the pot, on average, you can expect to win at showdown if no players fold before then. When there are cards to come, it is unusual for one player’s hand to already have a lock on the pot. Normally, one hand will be ahead, but others will have outs to overtake it. A hand’s pot equity is generally an expression of the chance that that hand will be the best after all cards have been revealed.

Example:

You – As Kh
Opponent – 5c 5s
Board – Jd 8d 2c

Your opponent is currently ahead with a pair of fives. You can still win if you hit an Ace or a King on the turn or river (providing your opponent doesn’t hit another five) or if you hit precisely a Ten and a Queen (for the straight) or a Jack and an Eight (for a better 2 pair). The odds of one of these conditions being fulfilled (and hence you ending up with the best hand) are 26.46%, so we can say your pot equity is 26.46%.

Note that this doesn’t necessarily mean that you only have a 26% chance of winning the hand. Let’s think about how we may have gotten to this situation. Maybe you raised pre-flop from early position, and your opponent called from the big blind. If you now bet the flop (as most people would), he may well fold fearing you have a Jack, an eight or a bigger pocket pair. In other words, pot equity doesn’t take into account the chance of players folding. If your hand is given extra value by the fact that one or more of your opponents might fold then this is folding equity, which is something completely different. Note that folding equity is a very important concept in no-limit/pot-limit holdem, which as a result makes pot equity less relevant in these games (although very relevant when debating calling an all-in bet).

Pot equity is an important concept, because it is an expression of how much of the pot is effectively ‘yours’, both at present time and after the current betting round has concluded. The most common use of pot equity is determining whether you have a pot equity edge. This is defined as when your pot equity is greater than 100/n, where n is the number of players left in the hand. In other words, whether you have ‘more than your fair share’ of pot equity and will want to get as much money into the pot as possible. This brings us neatly onto:


Value Betting

Value betting is not – the same thing as having odds to call. Just because you have odds to call a bet doesn’t mean you should be value betting.

Value betting is – a bet designed to make money when your opponent calls rather than when he folds, in effect the opposite of a bluff. When you estimate that you have a pot equity edge, you bet so that if your opponent calls you will make money on that bet.

For example, you are playing 2/4. There is $16 in the pot and two players left on the turn. You have a weak made hand and think your opponent is on a flush draw. You consider your pot equity to be about 75%. In other words, out of the $16 in the pot, you can expect to win $12 of it. If you bet the turn ($4) and your opponent calls, then there will be $24 in the pot, of which you can expect to win $18. You have put $4 in the pot and as a result increased your equity by $6, so your bet had value.

Note that your opponent was not making a mistake by calling. They were faced with a $4 bet to win $20 and so they would only need pot equity of 20% to justify a call. This illustrates the fundamental difference between having the odds to call and the odds to value bet. A decision to call takes into account the money already in the pot, while a decision to value bet does not, it is merely looking at how much you can expect to make on that bet.

Of course, you normally can’t put your opponent on a hand so accurately. Generally when considering a value bet you will have to look at the range of hands your opponent could have, assess the chance he has you beat, and then calculate the chance you will be drawn out on, and hence whether you should value bet. If you have only one opponent then if is often a case of just betting if you feel you are ahead. However, there are situations when this may not be wise. Consider the following scenario:

You: 3s 3c
Opponent: Td Jd
Board: 9d 8s 5d

You currently have the best hand with your pair of threes, but your opponent has a massive 21 outs to overtake you by the river (plus the chance of the board counterfeiting your hand). You actually only have a pot equity of about 30% and so should not value bet despite being ahead. This is not common heads up but is a regular occurrence in multi-way pots, when strong draws are involved. For example, a player with the nut flush draw on the flop generally has pot equity of over 30% regardless of how many people are in the pot. In other words, if he has three or more opponents he can comfortably value bet despite being behind.

Value betting is more complicated than this. The decision can be more difficult if for example, your opponent may raise if you are beat, or fold if you are behind. But the essence is that a value bet will make money when your opponent calls because they have a lesser made hand or are on a draw. Through another tenuous link, this now brings me onto:


Protecting your Hand

Protecting your hand is not – Something you only do if your opponent would be wrong to call.

Protecting your hand is – Betting a made but vulnerable hand in order to charge players drawing the maximum to chase you. Some players have the wrong idea about protecting their hand. They seem to think that if there is no chance of a draw folding, then there is no point in betting their hand. They will say something like ‘there was no point in betting as a flush draw would never fold’. In fact nothing can be further from the truth.

Let’s take a straightforward made hand versus draw situation. On the flop, you are heads up; you have top pair and your opponent has a flush draw with no overcards or other outs. There are 7 small bets in the pot. If you bet here, there is no way your opponent will fold. They are about 4:1 to make their flush on the next card and about 2:1 to make it by the river. However, let’s look at it from another angle. Let’s say both players knew each other’s hands. If you were the player on the draw, then you would happily pay a bet to see the turn and another to see the river, but how many bets would you actually like to pay? Well the answer is simple, none. You have a pot equity of only around 35% and so for each bet that both players put in, you lose 35% of that bet in value.

And what if you were the player with top pair? If you bet, you would like your opponent to fold because if they call they will outdraw you one time in three. However if you bet and they call, it is far better than if you don’t bet and give them a free card. If you bet and are called you make money because you have a pot equity edge (i.e. you are making a value bet). On the other hand, if you check you are giving your opponent infinite pot odds to chase his flush. Look at it another way. From fundamental poker theory, we know that we make money when our opponents make a mistake, and lose money when they make the correct decision. Therefore it follows that the bigger mistake they make the more money we win and vice-versa. If we bet it is correct for your opponent to call as opposed to fold, but if we check, it is even more correct. If you can’t bet your opponent out of the hand, at least make them pay the maximum to chase you.

There are a few instances we might want to buck this thinking. Sometimes it is incorrect to protect our hand on the flop, if we would be able to protect it better on the turn. This normally occurs in large multi-way pots where even obscure draws might have the odds to chase if we bet the flop, but might fold the turn if the pot has not grown by then. These situations are few and far between though, and if in doubt it is always better to protect your hand if you think you are ahead.

Pot Committed

Pot committed is not – A concept generally applicable in limit ring games

Pot committed is – Largely a tournament concept used to describe a player who would be mathematically correct to call any bet from this point on. What makes you pot committed is not the fact that it is your money in the pot, but more the size of the pot in relation to your remaining stack. If you only have a small stack left and the pot is large, it is generally correct to call with anything.

For example, you have 1000 chips left in a NL tournament and the blinds are 100/200. Pre-flop you raise to 700 and are called from the button. You are now pot committed and are not folding this hand pretty much regardless of what your cards are and what comes on the flop. There is 1700 in the pot and you have 300 left so you are getting nearly 6:1 on any call with two cards to come. In fact you can pretty much push the last 300 chips in blind on the flop. Note that you are not pot committed because of how much of your money is in the pot, but how big the pot is. Remember in any form of poker, once you put money in the pot, it is no longer your money.

It is interesting to note that in the above example the short stack is also pot-committing his opponent. His opponent will also be getting 6-1 on that last 300 chips, and so he is also pot committed, but in a different way. While his stack is big, he has no possibility of losing more than the 300 chips his opponent has and so he is also mathematically correct to call any bet.

However, you are never pot committed if you and at least one other opponent have a healthy stack in front of you. Too often this is used as an excuse to make calls that the player knows they shouldn’t make. For example, they put in a few bets pre-flop then another couple on the flop and then despite a horrible board. they call down on the turn because of how much money they have put in the pot already, considering themselves 'pot committed'. This is a leak. The bets you have already paid are no longer yours. The only thing that matters is whether you are getting the correct pot odds to call given your opponent’s likely holdings.

Good luck at the tables

Ian Taylor (aka Piemaster)
 



However, it is important to differentiate the things that it doesn’t pay to be optimistic about. Cards don’t give a damn about your frame of mind. Probabilities don’t change because you are in a good mood. If you are optimistic about events that have a fixed probability and change your actions accordingly then you are playing sub-optimally. This article will explore the areas in poker in which optimism can hurt you, and maybe a good old-fashioned dose of pessimism would be better.

Your Opponent's Hand

In Hold’em, the great unknown is the cards your opponents hold. Through their betting patterns you try to determine their most likely holdings, which along with your own cards allows you to determine your best course of action. If you allow your calculations to be influenced by optimism, then your read and your resulting decisions will also be bad. The most common manifestation of this is the calling station syndrome, where despite increasingly mounting evidence to the contrary, you are clinging onto the hope that your hand might be good. Consider the following hand:

You are in the big blind. A middle position player raises, the button calls, and you make a slightly loose call with Tc8c. The button you know is a loose player, and MP is new to the table and you have no read on him.

The flop comes Td 9s 3d

You check and MP bets, the button calls, you check-raise, MP 3-bets. You decide that there is a good chance he has AK and he is trying to bully you off your hand. Or he may just be a maniac, you don’t have any hands on him to tell. The button then calls two cold, and you figure he may well be on a flush draw. You call.

Turn (Td 9s 3d) Kh

You check and MP bets out. While you put him on AK, you figure he could just as easily have AQ or even AJ and is trying to buy the pot. The button calls and you still put him on a flush draw. You call.

River (Td 9s 3d Kh) 7d

MP bets out again and the button now raises. You figure there is a small chance you have the best hand, because your opponents may have…. what exactly? MP has shown strength all through the hand and there is every indication that the button has hit his draw. You somehow manufacture a call on the basis that MP may be overplaying something like A9, the button might be making a crazy raise on a busted hand, and you are getting decent pot odds. MP calls and turns over AT, the button turns over Jh8h.

Optimism got you into trouble in this hand from the start. When the flop came you automatically put the aggressor on one of the hands you could beat instead of one of the many you couldn’t. Then you changed your read when the hand you put him on now beat you. Then you changed your read on the other player when it is obvious he had hit a hand. You subconsciously allowed what you hoped your opponents held to proxy for what logic should indicate they might hold.

A similar but opposite example of misplaced optimism can be seen when the player in question is the aggressor. For example, a player with top pair will keep betting into an opponent who they figure must have middle pair and yet when the middle card pairs, they carry on betting, presumably changing their read because it was easier than accepting they had probably been outdrawn. The consistent trait of the optimist is that they will always put an opponent on a worse hand than is statistically likely, even if that means changing their read.

Number of Outs

Counting outs is another area where players are often overly optimistic. On the flop, it is often tempting to consider every hand that gives you top pair or better an out, and sometimes even more than that if the board is non-threatening. Take the following example.

You are UTG+2 and you have Kd Qd. UTG calls, you raise, the cutoff re-raises, the BB, UTG and you all call.

Flop comes Js 9d 5s

How many out do you give yourself here? An optimist might say they have four outs to the straight, six to top pair and a backdoor flush draw so that’s about 12. However, optimism is not good when looking at outs. How should you really count them?

Well you have 3 outs to the nuts (Td, Th, Tc). The Ts is tainted as it could give someone a flush. Even if it doesn’t, it could be dangerous as it leaves you with the possibility of a fourth spade on the river killing you. You also have 6 outs to top pair, but how good are these exactly? These outs could give someone else an even better hand if any of your opponents hold AK, AQ, KJ, K9, K5, QJ, Q9, Q5, QT or KT. Plus there is always the possibility that the cutoff (who re-raised pre-flop remember) may hold AA, KK or QQ or that someone has already made a set. Even if you make top pair and it is good, you will be dodging a huge amount of bullets on the river. All in all, your two over-cards are almost worthless. You also have a backdoor flush draw. This is probably worth about 1.5 outs max. So overall I would say you have:

3 outs to the straight after discounts for redraws, the tainted Ts and possibility of a split pot.

1.5 outs to overcards and this is being generous and including oddities like runner-runner Q’s

1.5 outs to backdoor flush.

Total = 6 outs, which is half of what the optimistic estimate was, and must be played very differently. One of the reasons there are so many calling stations out there is misplaced optimism. People like to think that they can improve their hand to win the pot when the reality is that all too often they will improve their hand and still lose the pot costing themselves many bets along the way.

Other Pitfalls of Optimism

Of course these aren’t the only two areas where optimism can hurt you. An optimist may also make the following mistakes.

  • Assuming bad downswings ‘won’t happen to them’
  • Thinking they can sustain an unsustainable win-rate obtained in the short term.
  • Assuming that they can beat the higher limits as easily as the lower limits
  • Thinking they can play bad hands and compensate with ‘good post-flop play’.
  • Assuming their opponents are bad players until proven otherwise.

Basically any situation where an optimist will choose a suboptimal strategy based on an assumption of a higher than average outcome will cause them to lose money in the long run.

Many people at this point are probably wondering what my views are on pessimism. Surely in a game like poker, optimism and pessimism are two sides of the same coin. If illogical optimism is bad, then surely illogical pessimism must be also. This is certainly true to an extent. A pessimist may make a number of very costly mistakes such as folding on the river in big pots assuming they are beaten, and not raising for value. However, in my opinion three factors combine to make optimism more dangerous than pessimism for the poker player.

  1. Poker is a game more likely to be played by people who are generally optimistic. A pessimist would be less likely to take up a game like poker, and would quit sooner after experiencing losses.
  2. Poker is structured to give the illusion of optimism being rewarded. The best result you can get from folding is not losing any more money, while speculation can yield the reward of winning the pot. Poker players, especially beginners, often have trouble equating money saved to money earned and so are more likely to make a bad call than a bad fold.
  3. A pessimist is unlikely to lose a large amount of money due to pessimism. They may lose the occasional pot they shouldn’t, but an optimist may be making loose calls nearly every time they are in a pot. Plus they will make the occasional huge clanger like playing above their bankroll.

If you are one of nature optimists, make sure you don’t bring this attitude to the table with you. When you are playing, make sure you are playing not with hope but with reason. Think ‘what is likely’ rather than ‘what is possible in a best case scenario’.

 



 This article will not tell you what is wrong with your game; there are plenty of resources out there to help you with that. This article will suggest ways that you can assess how important leaks are and prioritise accordingly.

How do you know where your biggest weaknesses are, and what leaks should you be concentrating on? If you find something in your game that you feel is costing you money, how do you know how much money it is costing you? Well, it is a simple matter of calculating:

a) How often the situation occurs (frequency) and
b) How much money you lose on average each time you do it (magnitude).

Multiply one by the other and you effectively have a measure of how important that leak is. For example, if you make a mistake twice every 100 hands and it costs you 0.3BB on average, then effectively this error is costing you 0.6BB/100, which is a comparatively huge leak. On the other hand, if you make a certain mistake only once every 1000 hands and only costs you 0.05BB on average then that mistake is only costing you 0.005BB/100, and fixing it will have only a tiny affect on your results, even in the long term.

When determining what leaks we should prioritise, we are really trying to find two things. Mistakes we make most often and the mistakes that cost us the most money.


Assessing Frequency

The first half of the equation is the easiest to measure. It is normally intuitive how often a particular situation occurs; in fact sometimes you may know the answer off the top of your head. For example, if your issue is with small pocket pairs, then you can say with certainly that you will be dealt 22-66 5 times every 221 hands on average (1 in 221 for each pair) or approximately 2% of all hands.

Other situations may be more difficult to determine how often they occur. For example, it would be difficult to calculate off the top of your head how often you are raised on the river when you hold top pair/top kicker and there is a 3-flush on the board. Poker tracker can be your friend here, as it can filter your hand database according to a number of criteria.

In order to properly assess leaks it is important to group them together as much as possible. For example, maybe you have identified that you play TT badly when an overcard falls on the flop and you have three opponents. On it’s own this is a low frequency leak, but if you have this problem the chances are you also have problems with two or four opponents, and with 88, 99 and JJ too. Collectively this is now a much higher frequency leak. Try to spot the difference between a leak and a situation. One leak may cause problems in a number of different situations.

The difference between a high-frequency leak and a low-frequency leak is naturally fairly arbitrary. For the purpose of the rest of this article I will consider any leak that causes an issue more than once every 100 hands is a high frequency leak, and anything less than once every 200 hands is low frequency. Between 1/100 and 1/200 you’ll have to consider it somewhere in between and act accordingly.


Assessing Magnitude

Measuring the magnitude of a leak is far more difficult than measuring the frequency. Remember we are trying to measure [i]on average[i] how much that error costs you. To do this we must account for the times you act correctly but lose and the times you act incorrectly and win.

For example, let’s say you are faced with a bet on the river and the pot (including that bet) is 8BB. You have junk but make a bad call to ‘look him up’ and your opponent wins the pot. On the face of it, this error costs you 1BB but does it really? What if your hand is actually best 5% of the time this situation occurs? 5% is a very small percentage and it would still be correct to fold, but calling is only costing you 0.6BB per hand on average, because of the 8BB you win that 5% of the time. If your hand is best 10% of the time, your bad call only costs 0.2BB per hand.

Without going too deeply into this, what is clear is that most errors in limit hold’em only cost you a fraction of a bet, and most cost a tiny fraction of a bet. Some refute this by saying that an error on one street actually costs a player a lot of bets over a number of streets. For example a player who calls with bottom pair on a multi-way flop may also call on the turn and river. However, this is not one error but three separate errors, each of which cost only a fraction of a bet.

Because it is so difficult to calculate how much an error costs you, it is difficult to put numbers on it for the purpose of the next section. Certainly anything that costs you over 0.25BB on average is a major error. Low magnitude errors tend to be the kind of things discussed on the ITH hand examples forum on a regular basis. They will generally be difficult to spot when playing in real time and are only noticed when analysing the hand later. Any error that costs you less than 0.1BB on average can almost certainly be considered a low magnitude error.


The Four Types of Leak

By putting frequency and magnitude into a 2 by 2 matrix, you effectively arrive at four different types of leak. Obviously, this pigeon holing is rather arbitrary and there will be considerable variation on both frequency and magnitude within each category. However, the purpose of this is to give you an idea of the way you should prioritise leaks and ultimately how damaging they might be.


High Frequency + High Magnitude = Major Weakness
These are the leaks that will really hurt you. If you have major weaknesses in your game you will struggle to be a winning player in the long term. These are the kind of leaks that poker books such as Internet Texas Hold’em attempt to eliminate. Examples might be cold-calling pre-flop raises with easily dominated hands, calling down turn raises with mediocre holdings and folding on the river too often. Anything in fact that you will have the opportunity to do quite often and will cost you heavily when you do.

Hopefully you have already eliminated all major weaknesses from your game, if not they need to be tackled immediately! Study hard to work out where you are going wrong, and then concentrate hard to improve these areas of your game. You are playing severely handicapped until you do.


Low Frequency + High Magnitude = Rookie Error
So called because they are mistakes commonly made by serious but inexperienced players. While the error can cost you a lot of money on average, the situation doesn’t occur too often. Examples might be calling pre-flop raises from tight players in early position with AQ or betting the river out of position when your opponent appears to be on a draw and a card falls that may fill that draw. These individual leaks won’t cost you huge amounts because they won’t occur too frequently. However, they are very difficult to detect because they don’t happen often enough for you to really observe a pattern. If you are making a lot of rookie errors, they can collectively have a big impact on your win rate without you really noticing.

Rookie errors tend to fall into the ‘easy to fix, hard to find’ category. Treat them as a high priority especially if you are fairly new to the game, as you will get a good reward for comparatively little effort. The best way to identify rookie errors is to post plenty of hand examples on the forum, where more experienced players might flag them for your attention. This is generally more effective than studying your own results where you will rarely have enough data to draw any meaningful conclusions.


High Frequency + Low Magnitude = Subtle Leak
Subtle leaks are the bane of the poker player’s life. They will slowly erode your win-rate, small amount by small amount. They can be difficult to correct because the error will often be so small it is difficult to measure without a large database of results. Examples are incorrectly counting outs, playing slightly loose pre-flop and calling too often on the flop. Eliminating these leaks can be extremely difficult because they often come down to very subtle distinctions that even good players may disagree on.

Plugging these leaks is important, but you may want to work on rookie errors first as these will give you a better reward/effort ratio. While eliminating subtle leaks completely can be difficult, the important thing is to keep chipping away at them. For example if you are making too many loose calls on the flop, try to eliminate the loosest of these, and then the next loosest and so on. By doing this you will slowly lower the frequency of your subtle leaks and maybe also the magnitude, as the errors costing you the most money are normally easiest to spot.


Low Frequency + Low Magnitude = Obscure Technicality
These leaks are really not that important. It is a mistake you make rarely and when you make it, it doesn’t cost you too much money. There can be a problem identifying these leaks at all because it is very difficult to collect enough data to get a conclusive result. These leaks should be treated as the lowest priority when improving your game.

Unfortunately many poker players are fixated by them. They will have endless debates about whether it is better to cap a re-raise with QQ or merely call. They will make posts every time they flop a full house, worrying that by playing it slightly differently they could have extracted more money. These are not the issues these players need to be focussing on!

Because these errors are so small, often there isn’t even a consensus as to what the best play is. Ask an accomplished player whether you should cap or just call a re-raise with QQ pre-flop against an unknown player, and you may get an opinion (which could go either way), but most likely you will get something along the lines of ‘I do it this way but it doesn’t really matter’, ‘either is fine’ or ‘I will mix up my play and do both’. If you are worrying about plays like this your game is either so good you can afford to or (far more likely) you are focussing on the wrong thing.


Conclusion

While making any effort to improve your game is commendable, it is far better to focus on those areas that are likely to yield the best results in monetary terms. When confronted with a potential leak, ask yourself how much the error is costing you and how often you make it. If the answer to both questions is ‘not a lot’ don’t be afraid to put the issue on the back burner for the time being. Find and eliminate the mistakes that you make most often or that cost you the most money to get better results faster.

For further discussion of the article or to ask the author a question, please visit this thread in the ITH forums.

 
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