I received my first bluffing lesson in high school. We were playing five-card draw poker, a “no limit” version. I made a flush, a strong hand. My illustrious opponent, a polish kid two years older than I was, seemed to be on some kind of a draw. The final round of betting came. There was already a decent pot, and I knew I had him beat. Amazingly, he bet into me. While pondering how much to raise him without scaring him off, I noticed something curious. He leaned over talking to a friend. In a voice barely audible (I had to really perk up my ears!) he whispered in a tone of secrecy and silent delight: “I know this guy. He’ll call.” It halted me in my tracks. Utterly convinced that he made a monster hand, I folded with a feeling of loathing. My loathing turned into outright disgust as my opponent threw his junk hand in my face, laughing his head off. Quite a performance on his part. I believed him. Or more accurately, he got me to believe him. Bluffing is fun, provided you find yourself on the right end most of the time. But what is bluffing really about?

The Idea of Over-doing

Bluffing is about believing. My opponent deserved the pot because he made me believe that his hand was stronger. Most poker literature identifies bluffing by over-doing. In other words, when a player bluffs, he is likely to over-do some particular action, behavior, or gesture. But my opponent did not over-do, and yet, he was bluffing. Are there any other criteria that could be used to effectively identify bluffing behaviors?

Intention

I believe there is something additional, perhaps even more important. Bluffing behaviors do not always over-compensate, but they are always intentional. By definition, a bluff is an intentional action designed to confuse the opponent. All bluffs are intentional behaviors. All tells are involuntary reactions. So the trick is to distinguish between intentional and unintentional. Dilating pupils are not intentional. Staring an opponent down is. Highly reliable tells are those that are involuntary. These will often be subtle, but will not necessarily over-do. Overdoing can indicate a lie. Intention can reveal the truth. Thus, these two are the two sides of the same coin. Be aware of both.

Beginners vs. Intermediate Players

I believe intention plays a different role against opponents of various skill levels. Intentions of most beginners do not make a lot of sense. If you can pick up on it, it is likely not to be worth much. If your opponent’s play does not make sense, chances are that neither does his bluffing. The situation changes with respect to intermediate players. Know your man. What is he/she capable of? With time and practice you will recognize different grades of bluffers. Incredibly, you will run into some players who never, or almost never, bluff. These are as harmless as players who nearly always bluff. The consistency and extremity of their bluffing frequency will make you money; you will nearly always be certain what they hold.

"Right" Frequency

Unfortunately, most players do not fall into these two categories. Their bluffing frequency is difficult to figure out. David Sklansky, in “Theory of Poker”, defines the right bluffing frequency as “a frequency that makes it impossible for your opponents to know whether to call or fold.” Misinformation. Misdirection. Confusion. Uncertainty. Those are the elements that you want to introduce into your game while avoiding opponents that exhibit them. Easier said than done, of course. Running bluffs as well as reading them successfully is more dependent on the amount of experience than other aspects of the game. It is a good idea to have a group of regulars that you play with in order to consistently observe them. With time and focused effort, you ought to be able to pick up some tells. The danger is generalization. While certain gestures tend to mean the same thing, they may well mean the opposite in some cases. With respect to tells, there is nothing really written in stone, except over-doing and intention. Even then, you have to watch out for reverse tells. You must treat individual players as individuals. There is no “group bluffing”.

If It Doesn’t Work…

Suppose that you can conclude nothing from your analysis. The patterns recognized are either contradictory or just plain confusing. The good news is that your ability to recognize tells is only one of the skills. If it doesn’t work, simply revert back to solid play based on mathematical considerations. Psychological analysis should serve only as a supplement, not as the foundation of your game. Having said that, have fun with the psychological aspect! It makes the game what it is.

Conclusion

Over-doing is usually considered the best bluffing indicator. However, intention appears as another serious candidate. Bluffing is always intentional, but not always over-doing. These are the two sides of the same coin. Practice recognizing bluffs, and bluffing, on a regular basis. If your analysis does not work, revert to mathematical play. You will get better with time.

Happy Playing.