Too much knowledge of an opponent?

[Dogs]

Playing an $8 MTT last night, I was on a table with a very loose player. He was limping at every opportunity, and his stack size was up and down like a yo-yo. From what I’d seen him show-down, I wasn’t too impressed by his play: he seemed like one of the many fish you get at low-limit MTTs, there to gamble rather than play poker.

After a while, I looked him up on thepokerdb. I was more than a little surprised to see that he usually played at much higher levels, had a dozen or so final tables including 3 wins, and his total prize money was over $35k.

This started making me question my judgement of him. My initial thoughts were that:

a) he’d let someone else use his account on a low buyin;
b) he was blowing off some steam;
c) he was drunk;
d) he was horsing around on some donkfest with his friends.

It was also quite possible that:

e) he was a much better player than me, and I just didn’t understand his tactics.

With this new information, should I adjust my read of him? Or am I better off just treating him like any player I’ve never seen, and just evaluate him on how he’s playing in this tournament?

[Piemaster]

That's a very good question actually.

This is a situation where you are basically getting conflicting information. In these situations, the best things to do is to not get caught up in speculation and concentrate on what you actually know. When he has a big pair pre-flop, how does he play it? When he flops top pair, how does he play it? When he faces a big raise with a marginal hand, what does he do?

Shy away from wondering about things that are difficult to determine, such as whether he is a winning player, whether he is on tilt and whether he is better than you. These are good things to know, but are really second level considerations. Knowing these things in themself won't help you to beat him. Concentrate on how he is actually playing instead and adapt your game to that for now.

If you meet him again in the future, maybe you will find the answer to your questions.

[Dogs]

Can I flip the scenario now: what if I'd done the pokerdb check before I'd seen him play a hand? With lack of any other information, presumably I'd be a fool not to pay at least some attention to it. I'm not sure how quickly I'd notice he was playing poorly in that scenario: I have a feeling I'd be questioning what I saw for a lot longer, wondering if I was just missing something.

[Piemaster]

No, you haven't missed something, that is another excellent point. In fact, this is something that we bring up in The Poker Mindset right at the beginning of the chapter on reading your opponents. Be very wary of assigning an opponent a label and sticking with it through thick and thin.

You're correct in saying that, with no more accurate information, your pokerdb check is the best information you have, and so it is the best source on which to act if you have to make a close decision against this player. However, once you have loosely clasiifed a player (through whatever means) you need to continue to observe that player and adjust your analysis accordingly. The same goes with PT stats. If a player shows up with datamined stats of 50/10/0.5, but he starts showing aggression pre-flop and showing down premium hands, then you need to be very alert to the fact that your PT stats may be inaccurate. Maybe he has improved, or maybe he was on tilt when those hands were datamined.

In short, the process of analysing and categorising your opponents should never end.

[toronexti]

Just to add to what pie said this is especially important in turneys where at different times your opponents may start changing gear due to the higher blinds or a short/big stack - just because he was 5/1 when he had 10BB doesn't mean that he has a monster every time he raises with 100BB and starts to looke more like a 25/15.

In tournament the faster you can spot these shifts in aggressiveness the more rewarding it is because you can make calls or folds that would otherwise seem to be foolish.

[Piscivorous]

I'd like to add something to this conversation also.

Like Pie and Toro state, players will shift gears as their chipstack change, blinds increase, player passivity before the bubble or new payout plateau emerges and anytime they have a good read on their table. You may be catching him when taking shots and being aggressive are of paramount importance to him.

Your thoughts on him and why he is playing lower than usual is an OK thought, but not a reliable read. Although you nailed a few reasons why he might be playing lower, I'll add a few to your list:

1. He's American and is having trouble moving money to and from sites. If he cashed out big before the Neteller fiasco, he may be playing the small buy-in MTTs for the same reason I am. I cannot move money around as easily as I once could.
2. He may have a favorite MTT. I know when Paradise was still open to me, I still liked playing the $2 Riptide. Look at his pokerdb stats and see if there are MTTs below what you would consider his "level". He may have a fondness.
3. What is the payout? The Stars $10K at 2:00PM EST is a $3 rebuy. Doesn't show up big on thepokerdb buy-ins, but it is quite a lucrative MTT, especially on the weekends when it can be as high as $50K.
4. He's in a downturn. Coupled with 1 above, he may be trying to keep his variance at a lower plateau until a new payment solution opens the movement again.
5. He has changed his work schedule and now can't always get into the big patday MTTs.

As you can see, there are many explanations why players go into cycles.

The bottom line for thepokerdb to me? I want to see if the player has a tendency to finish on final tables. I don't care one bit how much he has made. If he can FT consistently at any limit or buy-in, he has my attenbtion as a decent player.

[jfletcher]

[Dogs]

Thanks for all the responses.

[Piscivorous]