Tiime to move up?

[Schlepper333]

For most of the summer I have been playing in Star's .05/.10. I have read that a player should be consistently winning 2 BB/hour before moving up. In a 3200 hand sample my BB/hour is 2.81. Question is how long is consistently? Should I give it another 1000 hands or what? Bankroll is no problem

Thoughts?

Schlepper.

[taz115]

Lots of players put in barriers to moving between limits when it really comes down to comfort. If you have the BR for it and you feel comfortable increasing your stakes then move up, it doesn't mater what your earn rate is. You could go on a bad downswing and spent 100k hands trying to achieve 2BB/100 and it doesn't mean your winning or losing at that limit necessarily.

I think it's fine to set goals and whatnot but I think a lot of players hold themselves back by sticking to a goal that may not have bearing on how good or bad they are actually playing.

I'm definatley not knocking you Schlepper... but if you feel your a winning player and you have the BR go for it, you can always move down if you lose your confidence. There should be no difference in the level of opponent between those limits as far as I know, just bigger stakes.

That being said, 3200 hands is nowhere near the long term... your probably looking at 20-25k hands to be more confident that you are a winning player at that level.

[Misunderstud]

Your primary criterion should be your BR. In the micros I used 300BB as a benchmark. I got through, but it was touch and go sometimes. IMO you need 500-1000 to feel comfortable with the swings, especially as the $ amounts get bigger, but everybody's different.

Second, you must feel comfortable at the table: that your game is as good or better than most of those you're up against. Short term (<25k hands or so), your head is a far better guide than your stats in that respect.

If you're not meeting both of those conditions, move down. If you are, keep moving up. Setting stats-based goals puts you at the mercy of variance - the least reliable of guides.

[taz115]

I agree that 300BB is not enough if your planning on playing that limit without the option of dropping down, but I routinely took shots at higher limits with 200-300BB when I was playing limit back in the day.

I typically felt that I was good enough to win at the limits I was playing and if you lose 25-50BB you can always move back down.

Moving up limits doesn't mean that you can't go back. Lots of players see dropping limits as a setback and I think it is a bit of a mental hurdle. If your goal is to move up through the limits as fast as possible I think someone should be taking shots.

I'm a lifetime loser at 3/6 but it didn't stop me from moving up to 5/10 because I felt that I was a long-term winner at that level, I just didn't play the limit long enough to ever find out for sure. But when I took shots at 5/10 ad 10/20 I ran well off the start and they became my new regular limits. If you try and move up and you get stung you can always play lower, this was the case whenever I took shots at 15/30. I never played higher than 10/20 on a regular basis as a result.

[Misunderstud]

[hazey]

I quite liked Ed Miller's blog article earlier in the week about moving up:

http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/articles/moving-up-beyond-winrate-and-bankroll-part-1-comfort-level.html

Basically saying the same things as taz and Misunderstud in that it's more about comfort in the games you are playing rather than winrate (as long as you have a suitable bankroll, of course).

Cheers
hazey

[shallam]

Hey that's cool. Sounds like you made a pretty big turnaround over the summer. Any insights as to what aspects of your game improved ?

My experience is that there is not that much difference between .05/.10 and .10/.20. You will run into some of the same players. There is a more noticeable difference between .10/.20 and .25/.50.


My recommendation would be that you move up and play some .10/.20 --- keep a notepad nearby to write down any differences you find in the style of play compared to the lower limit. Then use your poker tracking software to evaluate your impressions more objectively. Then if you validate differences -- please share -- and also consider the strategic implications for those differences.


Then I would urge maintain an openness to moving back down if you run into any problems. From what I hear some people have ego problems when it comes to moving down in limits. I think it's smart to move up slowly when you are a proven winner over time, and move down when you are a loser.


Good luck and let us know how it's going !

[Schlepper333]