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| You're given an option between a 10% chance at $500 or taking $50 right now |
| 10% at getting $500 |
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50% |
[ 12 ] |
| $50 |
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50% |
[ 12 ] |
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| Total Votes : 24 |
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toronexti 53o
Joined: 03 Sep 2004 Posts: 4242
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Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 12:52 am Post subject: Take a risk or not? (Poll) |
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You're given a one time option at either
1) a 10% of winning $500
or
2) Just receiving $50
which would you choose? |
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Willem 2K Club
Joined: 16 Sep 2006 Posts: 2685 Location: Netherlands
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Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:35 am Post subject: |
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| Pretty easy choice, I'll take the $50 any time. (I don't like to gamble) |
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Misunderstud 1K Club
Joined: 10 Jan 2006 Posts: 1684 Location: Here, stupid
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Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:37 am Post subject: |
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| Clever question, Toro. I'm going for the 10%, because not having $50 would be less negative than having $500 would be positive, and not having either makes no difference (if that makes sense). |
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nsidestrate Suited's Love Monkey
Joined: 26 May 2004 Posts: 22657
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Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 4:07 am Post subject: |
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| The funny thing is if you made it $500,000 or a 10% chance at of $5 million, I would bet that virtually everyone would take the 500k |
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Misunderstud 1K Club
Joined: 10 Jan 2006 Posts: 1684 Location: Here, stupid
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Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 4:19 am Post subject: |
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| nsidestrate wrote: | | The funny thing is if you made it $500,000 or a 10% chance at of $5 million, I would bet that virtually everyone would take the 500k |
Law of diminishing returns. |
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wade Should be Banned
Joined: 11 Oct 2004 Posts: 3110
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Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 4:24 am Post subject: |
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| I'd pass on the $50 but take 500K easily. Identical odds asside, there is some number in between I'd have a hard time deciding on though. It's probably much closer to $50. |
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Radford 2K Club
Joined: 06 Sep 2005 Posts: 2757 Location: Sheffield, England
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Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 6:07 am Post subject: |
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| nsidestrate wrote: | | The funny thing is if you made it $500,000 or a 10% chance at of $5 million, I would bet that virtually everyone would take the 500k |
Well, yeah that's pretty obvious because $500k is alot more than $50... |
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nsidestrate Suited's Love Monkey
Joined: 26 May 2004 Posts: 22657
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Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 6:11 am Post subject: |
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| Radford wrote: | | nsidestrate wrote: | | The funny thing is if you made it $500,000 or a 10% chance at of $5 million, I would bet that virtually everyone would take the 500k |
Well, yeah that's pretty obvious because $500k is alot more than $50... |
Then where is the line and why? |
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Misunderstud 1K Club
Joined: 10 Jan 2006 Posts: 1684 Location: Here, stupid
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Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 6:33 am Post subject: |
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| The line is where you want the change you can make to your life with $X more than 10x more than you want the change you can make to your life with $10x. It's different for everybody. |
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PauliF Actuarial - tested and proven
Joined: 16 Jun 2004 Posts: 2825 Location: London
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Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 9:13 am Post subject: |
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the line is in Greenwich London coz thats the centre of the universe
seriously though the other way to look at this is that economic refugees who come here to the UK from Africa and Asia where their economic outlook is bleak. they leave everything they know travelling under often very dangerous conditions to work doing crap jobs for minimum wage
so the less you have the more you are prepared to risk to get not very much
in this extreme case the human spirit is so strong people are prepared to risk their lives for almost nothing |
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SpaceLord
Joined: 03 Mar 2008 Posts: 204 Location: CO
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Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 9:33 am Post subject: |
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| Allais Paradox is what I get reminded of. |
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B.U.Terriers
Joined: 24 Nov 2004 Posts: 324 Location: Eastern MA
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Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 9:37 am Post subject: |
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Considering most of us consider ourselves fair to middling players, it would be beneficial to take the $50 and play the game of our choice. Does any site have 10 person winner take all $50 SNG's? I would think most of us would have a better than 10% chance at winning one of these. Or sit at a NL table with the $50 and go from there.
Simply put, most of us could turn $50 into $500 with a better than 10% success rate playing poker.
BU |
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taz115 Hzamm9rd, Yo!!!
Joined: 08 Oct 2005 Posts: 8477 Location: Edmonton, Canada
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Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 9:45 am Post subject: |
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| I think my line is at 25k or 250k, but that could change if I was actually presented the option. |
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CroMagnon 1K Club
Joined: 20 Sep 2006 Posts: 1211
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Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 10:03 am Post subject: |
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What has it cost me to get in this game?
Cro |
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taz115 Hzamm9rd, Yo!!!
Joined: 08 Oct 2005 Posts: 8477 Location: Edmonton, Canada
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Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 10:16 am Post subject: |
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| CroMagnon wrote: | What has it cost me to get in this game?
Cro |
I believe it's a freeroll. |
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