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Take a risk or not? (Poll)
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You're given an option between a 10% chance at $500 or taking $50 right now
10% at getting $500
50%
 50%  [ 12 ]
$50
50%
 50%  [ 12 ]
Total Votes : 24

Author Message
toronexti
53o


Joined: 03 Sep 2004
Posts: 4242

PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 12:52 am    Post subject: Take a risk or not? (Poll) Reply with quote

You're given a one time option at either

1) a 10% of winning $500

or

2) Just receiving $50

which would you choose?
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Willem
2K Club


Joined: 16 Sep 2006
Posts: 2685
Location: Netherlands

PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pretty easy choice, I'll take the $50 any time. (I don't like to gamble)
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Misunderstud
1K Club


Joined: 10 Jan 2006
Posts: 1684
Location: Here, stupid

PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Clever question, Toro. I'm going for the 10%, because not having $50 would be less negative than having $500 would be positive, and not having either makes no difference (if that makes sense).
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nsidestrate
Suited's Love Monkey


Joined: 26 May 2004
Posts: 22657

PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 4:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The funny thing is if you made it $500,000 or a 10% chance at of $5 million, I would bet that virtually everyone would take the 500k
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Misunderstud
1K Club


Joined: 10 Jan 2006
Posts: 1684
Location: Here, stupid

PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 4:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

nsidestrate wrote:
The funny thing is if you made it $500,000 or a 10% chance at of $5 million, I would bet that virtually everyone would take the 500k


Law of diminishing returns.
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wade
Should be Banned


Joined: 11 Oct 2004
Posts: 3110

PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 4:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd pass on the $50 but take 500K easily. Identical odds asside, there is some number in between I'd have a hard time deciding on though. It's probably much closer to $50.
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Radford
2K Club


Joined: 06 Sep 2005
Posts: 2757
Location: Sheffield, England

PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 6:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

nsidestrate wrote:
The funny thing is if you made it $500,000 or a 10% chance at of $5 million, I would bet that virtually everyone would take the 500k


Well, yeah that's pretty obvious because $500k is alot more than $50...
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nsidestrate
Suited's Love Monkey


Joined: 26 May 2004
Posts: 22657

PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 6:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Radford wrote:
nsidestrate wrote:
The funny thing is if you made it $500,000 or a 10% chance at of $5 million, I would bet that virtually everyone would take the 500k


Well, yeah that's pretty obvious because $500k is alot more than $50...


Then where is the line and why?
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Misunderstud
1K Club


Joined: 10 Jan 2006
Posts: 1684
Location: Here, stupid

PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 6:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The line is where you want the change you can make to your life with $X more than 10x more than you want the change you can make to your life with $10x. It's different for everybody.
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PauliF
Actuarial - tested and proven


Joined: 16 Jun 2004
Posts: 2825
Location: London

PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 9:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

the line is in Greenwich London coz thats the centre of the universe


seriously though the other way to look at this is that economic refugees who come here to the UK from Africa and Asia where their economic outlook is bleak. they leave everything they know travelling under often very dangerous conditions to work doing crap jobs for minimum wage

so the less you have the more you are prepared to risk to get not very much
in this extreme case the human spirit is so strong people are prepared to risk their lives for almost nothing
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SpaceLord



Joined: 03 Mar 2008
Posts: 204
Location: CO

PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 9:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Allais Paradox is what I get reminded of.
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B.U.Terriers



Joined: 24 Nov 2004
Posts: 324
Location: Eastern MA

PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 9:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Considering most of us consider ourselves fair to middling players, it would be beneficial to take the $50 and play the game of our choice. Does any site have 10 person winner take all $50 SNG's? I would think most of us would have a better than 10% chance at winning one of these. Or sit at a NL table with the $50 and go from there.

Simply put, most of us could turn $50 into $500 with a better than 10% success rate playing poker.

BU
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taz115
Hzamm9rd, Yo!!!


Joined: 08 Oct 2005
Posts: 8477
Location: Edmonton, Canada

PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 9:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think my line is at 25k or 250k, but that could change if I was actually presented the option.
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CroMagnon
1K Club


Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 1211

PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 10:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

What has it cost me to get in this game?

Cro
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taz115
Hzamm9rd, Yo!!!


Joined: 08 Oct 2005
Posts: 8477
Location: Edmonton, Canada

PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 10:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

CroMagnon wrote:
What has it cost me to get in this game?

Cro


I believe it's a freeroll.
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