Sunny> A situation that still annoys me

[jeffnc]

This hand came up a couple years ago when I first tried stepping up to $2/5 NL at the Bellagio, and it's bugged me ever since, because even though I've learned a few things, I still don't know the answer to this one

I had only been at the table about 2 orbits, and there appeared to be a couple soft spots, and a couple players that I sensed were very solid and probably significant winners. The table had some limpers who had shown a tendency to fold when raised after them, and general respect of raises. 3 players limped, and I raised AK to $30 in MP. To my surprise I got one cold caller after me (one of the "good" players) plus 2 others. Bingo - the pot was already bigger than I wanted for this type of hand 4-way. I started with $500, everyone had about the same except for villain who had close to $2,000.

Flop is K32 rainbow. Checked to me, I checked, thinking the pot is plenty big enough right now ($125), I'm either way ahead or way behind, and I'm not worried about free cards unless someone has specifically 54. So I check, villain bets $50 (which I read as just a stab at it) and only I call.

Turn is a 7, I check again (reasoning the same as above, and hoping to either induce a bluff, minimize the damage with a hand I don't want to fold if I'm beat, and willing to let him bet with KQ or KJs in case he called with those hands preflop, which I kind of doubted.) He now bets $100 into $225 and it's $100 into a $330 pot for me, with $400 left.

I just don't like that situation. I check/raised all-in, but really I don't like any of my choices very much. It doesn't seem I can fold here, if only because that would be too exploitable to anyone paying attention. Villain seems to have proper odds here to play for a set and there doesn't seem to be anything I can do about it. I guess I could have feigned weakness (like I was holding a pair of Ts or something) and check/called, checked again on the river, and hoped he bet small. I just felt helpless in this scenario because I'll either get chewed up by a better hand, chewed up by an aggressive bluffer, or not get paid off by a worse hand. My plan at the time was simply to pick up the preflop pot, or get heads up in a smaller pot. Thoughts about this type of scenario in general? (I know it might look like the SPR is small enough not to worry about here, but given my reads and 4-way action, I just didn't like it. You can answer the question for whatever SPR makes you uncomfortable here )

[Neilis]

I think that you should play this flop a little more aggressively.

The big preflop raise and 3 callers means that you've already lost the ability to keep this pot small specifically against the player who has position on you: You can't check behind and ensure that a street goes by with no bets going in. If he's the one driving the betting he has absolutely no trouble getting stacks in if he wants to - 3/4 the pot on every street probably goes close to doing it.

If he's good he also has the potential to make your life very difficult if you check to him on repeatedly because he can probably bluff more than one street - especially seeing as you look like you're probably scared of the king no the board.

I'd probably bet the flop and see what he does, or if I checked, he bet and the other two players folded I'd raise. Not a huge raise, maybe to $150 in this case where he bet $50. It's going to be pretty tough to imagine he can shove over a checkraise on a bluff here. Of course if he just calls then that makes our life very challenging.

I prefer bet. It's hard for him to raise light because there's still two others to act. If called I probably bet-fold the turn for a healthy amount too.

[jeffnc]

So you're saying making a more aggressive move early in the hand, and then get away from the hand if you still have customers?

[poker_Elmo]

I like this SPR here Jeff.

If the SPR is 4, I will go broke with AK on a K32 flop almost every time, unless I have a super-good read on villain.

I like your play on the turn - you are getting a good price for him to fold if he has air, and might induce a call from a KQ, KJ, 45 type hand too.

However, I probably bet 80 or so on the flop, hoping for a customer with KQ, TT, 88, etc. to come along for a ride. I probably keep firing to get all in by the river with a 40% of pot bet.

[Harlequin99]

I find this thread really interesting. I've just started playing some NL hold'em, (I usually play limit) and this is exactly the sort of situation I find very difficult.

Could you explain the idea behind keeping pots small in cash games? I was under the impression that this was good play in tournaments since it can help you avoid getting a significant portion of your money into the pot in a marginal situation, and thus help preserve your tourament life. In cash games however, you can rebuy if you make a marginally profitable play but lose your buy in, so it is not a bad thing to play a large pot with a strong hand like your hand.

[poker_Elmo]

[Sunny Mehta]

Hi Jeff,

Good hand, good thoughts.

In my mind, the heart of your confusion actually involves two separate questions:

1) “Should I have been committed on the flop?”
2) “What do I do on the turn in situations where I’m out of position and not committed?”

Let’s take those questions one at a time.

First, should you have been committed? Honestly, that’s a difficult question for me to answer without knowing the other players’ and your ranges for making different plays, as well as how the different players view each other’s ranges. But I can offer a few thoughts.

If I personally had been playing this hand, and I raised to $30 preflop with AK in a live $2-$5 game with $500 stacks, got three callers, and hit a K32 rainbow flop, I’d fold the hand postflop somewhere close to zero percent of the time. But part of that is a function of how I play. My range for raising to $30 preflop after a couple limpers is fairly wide. Ditto for my range of flop-betting hands. I might bet with any king, any pocket pair, 54s, A4s, 65s, 32s, total air, etc. So, against me, a player (even a good player) with position couldn’t correctly just get away from hands like KQ, KJs, KTs, QQ, JJ, etc, either preflop or postflop. Thus is the importance of having a wide range.

However, even if your range is tighter than mine, you are almost never making a big mistake by committing on this flop with AK and SPR ~4. The number of times that you’ll raise with AK and hit top pair on an innocuous flop at the same time that someone else happens to call with a pocket pair preflop and hit a set on the same flop is fairly low combinations-wise. Assuming you’re employing even just a little bit of randomized semi-bluffing, i.e. – you’ll sometimes c-bet rag flops with AK unimproved or you’ll sometimes bet K32 flops with QQ/JJ/worse etc, you’re pretty much fine to commit on this flop.

So, in this actual hand, I would’ve just bet the flop, bet the turn, and bet the river, etc. (Unless MAYBE if you knew the button to be a habitual bluffer you might check the flop – but even then I’d probably still bet. I just don’t like raising preflop and hitting your hand, and then checking the flop after two players check to you.)

But to answer the second question from above (what to do on the turn), let’s change a few things. Let’s make the stacks deeper, the pot heads-up, and the range of the player behind you tighter. So let’s say the stacks are like $800 and you raise to $30 and only the player behind you calls. We’ll say he’s tight and that he’ll absolutely never have a hand worse than AK if he gets all-in with those stacks on a K32 flop.

In that case, I really like checking the flop, for the reasons you already described. So let’s say you check and he bets $50, and you call. Now you want to know what to do on the turn? Pretty simple imo. Opponents like this are basically very predictable in their turn and river lines. i.e. - ***They almost never bet both streets with one pair or worse.*** So once you check-call the flop, you can plan on check-calling the turn and check-folding the river, because this guy is simply not making a big river bet with KQ, AK, or even AA. If he bets the river big, you’re almost always beat.

But on the other hand, if you check-call the turn and check the river, he’ll just usually check behind with worse hands. And boom, you got your value against KQ, KJ, QQ, JJ, TT, 54, etc by just check-calling the flop and turn. You never let him put you to a big commitment decision, which is what you want you’re not committed. Or, if you check-call the flop, then check the turn and he checks behind, now you can make a river value bet. Etc, etc.

-S

[jeffnc]

[jeffnc]

Thanks for the comments Sunny et al.

I guess I should have mentioned a personal opinion of mine to set the stage a little more. Anyone who read my review of PNL knows I think it's a great book. But I think the SPR analysis gets a little shaky in multiway pots, especially 4-way or more. I'd be more comfortable with this hand heads up with an SPR of 4 than multiway, partly because that would mean my opponent would have to have put in a much bigger chunk of his stack preflop, and partly because there are simply fewer hands out that could potentially beat me. You can understand it easier by taking it to an extreme (like Mike Caro might do.) If you had an SPR of 2 here, you'd get all in very easily right? But what if you accomplished that by having 100 opponents? Assume such a thing were somehow possible. Then you'd have a $500 pot if everyone limped in. Then if someone bet $500 into that pot and you had $500 left, well... someone out of a hundred has to have you beat, and it didn't cost him a whole lot to see that flop so he could have anything.

So I consider SPR of 4 with 1 opponent and SPR of 4 with 3 opponents to be pretty different scenarios.

Based on Sunny's answer I have a followup post coming related to hand raising ranges (for me)