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maf66 2K Club
Joined: 13 Oct 2004 Posts: 2448 Location: London, UK
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Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 5:02 pm Post subject: Straight + Flush draw v overbet close to bubble |
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$16 turbo SNG. Villain has been very active and raising a lot of hands, but has slowed down over last few hands as people have been playing back at him.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $15+$1 Tournament, 75/150 Blinds (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB (t3535)
Hero (BB) (t4405)
UTG (t2500)
MP (t1660)
Button (t1400)
Hero's M: 19.58
Preflop: Hero is BB with ,
3 folds, SB calls t75, Hero checks
Flop: (t300) , , (2 players)
SB bets t750, Hero folds
Total pot: t300
How's my line here? Was really tempted to push this, but with 2 shorties left I thought I could wait for a better spot. I haven't got a clue what the overbet of the flop could mean.
I'm beginning to regret folding, but need a 2nd opinion. |
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cowboyinexile
Joined: 28 Mar 2005 Posts: 378 Location: South Dakota
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Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:41 pm Post subject: |
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Personally, I would have raised with this hand pre-flop.
What did you put the guy on? This bet stinks of either a pure bluff or an overbet with a marginal hand. A weaker flush or something like K4 are what I'm thinking he might have. Maybe he got trappy with an overpair (if so, I doubt you are gonna get him to fold) and got scared of the spades on the flop and overbet. Whatever he has though, this is a kill the pot now bet. Either you have him already (weaker flush draw) or with the ace, flush, and inside strait draw, you have a lot of clean outs to beat him. Plus, if you push, its not your tourney life on the line here-its his. Granted, if he beats you, it cripples you, but for him, it means the short stacks make the money and he goes home on the bubble.
The way the hand is played, I'm not folding here. Any legit raise is gonna pot commit you, so I'd think any raise might as well be a push-if he's sitting on Kings, well then you got a lot of ways to beat him. If he's sitting on TP then he's made what I would consider a questionable decision, but thats life sometimes.
Calling would be tempting, but a bit scary. If the guy's slowed down a little, you might get a free card on the turn, but you might be forced to fold if you don't improve and the guy shoves as well. As the chip leader with position, its not gonna kill you stack if you call and he shoves, but it will let him think he can run over you. Although this can create some great slow play situations, it can also get annoying if the guy thinks he can run you over with big bets. I'm 50/50 call-push here with the guy acting before me. Some people might say never call here, but I think either line is appropriate. If you call and he pushes, you can make it up blind stealing when he folds and he might try and screw with you when you are strong. If you bloody his nose a bit here though, it might keep him from screwing with you later in the tourney. |
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krazytxan Texas Matriarch
Joined: 26 May 2004 Posts: 4762
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Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:51 pm Post subject: |
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What did you think SB had?
You had nut flush draw. |
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maf66 2K Club
Joined: 13 Oct 2004 Posts: 2448 Location: London, UK
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Posted: Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:06 am Post subject: |
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| krazytxan wrote: | What did you think SB had?
You had nut flush draw. |
TBH, I was totally confused and used up most of my time bank on this. The only thing that made sense was a slow-played overpair (which Cowboy also mentioned). |
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jaydreb
Joined: 29 Apr 2004 Posts: 550
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Posted: Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:22 am Post subject: |
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| maf66 wrote: | | krazytxan wrote: | What did you think SB had?
You had nut flush draw. |
TBH, I was totally confused and used up most of my time bank on this. The only thing that made sense was a slow-played overpair (which Cowboy also mentioned). |
You're a favorite over all overpairs except AA. |
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