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tav
Joined: 26 Feb 2008 Posts: 2 Location: TN
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Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 10:04 am Post subject: straight draw and nut flush draw after flop |
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Hi guys. This is my first post on the forum. I've really enjoyed reading the posts here and have learned a lot. I'm curious what others would do here post flop.
It's a $5 9 seat SNG down to the last 3, and we are all even in stacks. The blinds are 100/200, and I'm in the BB. The SB has been very aggressive post flop the entire time, often leading out with pot sized bets.
I have Ac4d. The button folds and the SB calls. I check hoping to trap him into another post flop bet.
Flop comes 5c3c10c and as expected, the SB pets the pot.
What would you do now?[/img] |
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PauliF Actuarial - tested and proven
Joined: 16 Jun 2004 Posts: 2825 Location: London
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Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 10:30 am Post subject: |
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hey mate
first welcome to the forum
its always good when the lurkers come out of the shadows
in this situation i am shoving almost all the time
hope that helps
reason is you are almost always winning the pot there and then
and when you are not you will win it more than a third of the time
(your flush draw will get tbere a third of the time and sometimes you will spike your ace to win and sometimes you will even win with ace or something runner runner)
thing is he is folding way more than 70% of the time and so since its and edge its good for me
remember once in the money all that ICM stuff is much less important and good draws and good hands are gold
shove shove shove |
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ImBetterDude
Joined: 18 Jul 2007 Posts: 747 Location: California
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Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 4:14 pm Post subject: |
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| A villain that bets pot on that scary board is not folding a push 70% of the time when he's already ITM. He's got something good. |
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PauliF Actuarial - tested and proven
Joined: 16 Jun 2004 Posts: 2825 Location: London
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Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 9:35 pm Post subject: |
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| maybe as high as 80 or 90 you recon? |
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cowboyinexile
Joined: 28 Mar 2005 Posts: 378 Location: South Dakota
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Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 10:14 pm Post subject: |
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| ImBetterDude wrote: | | A villain that bets pot on that scary board is not folding a push 70% of the time when he's already ITM. He's got something good. |
I think you are wrong here. If the guy is pushing every pot he gets into, he's trying to take control of the table. He limped from sb pre-flop, so you can assume he doesn't have a set as he would have raised pre-flop with it. The only thing to worry about here is two pair (53os 80?) and it would just be bad luck if he has even that.
There are two things I can think of here.
1. With the villians aggressive style, you should have raised him out of the blind. You know he is gonna lead into you no matter the flop, so take control of the hand from the beginning and go from there. If he calls a raise and leads into you, thats pretty aggressive and you gotta look at the flop to see what you have.
2. No matter how you play it pre-flop, you gotta love what happened next. Outside of spiking an ace, you got the best possible outcome. Since he didn't raise pre-flop, its safe to assume he doesn't have an ace, so unless he caught two pair, you are a head in the hand. I wouldn't put him on a flush here either-from what I have seen the over aggressives tend to slow play when their junk suddenly becomes golden. If he caught it, great flop bet on his part. Considering that A high may be the best hand at the moment and you hold a draw to the stone cold nuts, folding isn't an option. Its time to get crafty here. Your draw is strong enough that calling with the intention to bet/raise on the turn no matter the card is a decent choice. If he's bluffing your call will confuse him and the turn bet will see if he's for real.
However, if I were in a similar situation and someone like that was pushing me around, I would raise, and raise big. Pre-flop, you guys are sitting on around t3000 in chips. The pot is t400 and he bets that on the flop. You have t800 and raise t1300-you just put half the chips he has available at stake. He has two moves and knows you are going the distance either way. If he got lucky and caught tp, its well worth it to risk everything on your draw. If he was bluffing, you just told him you aren't someone to be messed around with. |
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tav
Joined: 26 Feb 2008 Posts: 2 Location: TN
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Posted: Fri May 02, 2008 9:18 am Post subject: |
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Thanks for the responses.
I tried raising first with the intention of shoving to a rereaise or on the turn. He reraised and I shoved. He thought about it before he turned over Qh3s, and his bottom pair held up.
I was getting very good cards that night and raising with them, so I probably had a loose aggressive image since I didn't have to show too many hands.
Considering this, I think I would have had a better chance to get him to fold if I had shoved right away. But I didn't mind the call as I thought I was ahead.
This leads me to a second question: When you are gettnig really good cards in a session, say 15% mid to high pocket pairs and multiple AK and AQ hitting the flop hard, would you rather have the perception of a LAG player or show a few hands to keep a tighter image and try to steal blinds later? |
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ImBetterDude
Joined: 18 Jul 2007 Posts: 747 Location: California
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Posted: Fri May 02, 2008 11:29 am Post subject: |
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| See, he had the worst of his range (bottom pair) and still called. Villain is NOT folding 70% of the time to a push here. I'm thinking he's folding 25%. |
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nsidestrate Suited's Love Monkey
Joined: 26 May 2004 Posts: 22657
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Posted: Fri May 02, 2008 11:34 am Post subject: |
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| ImBetterDude wrote: | | See, he had the worst of his range (bottom pair) and still called. Villain is NOT folding 70% of the time to a push here. I'm thinking he's folding 25%. |
We don't know. The action went bet-raise-reraise-shove and he still thought about it. Presumably if the action went bet-shove he would have just folded.
Nor is bottom pair the worst of his range. He will have overcards or other non-pair hands a lot of the time. |
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jmbreslin
Joined: 27 Sep 2005 Posts: 936
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Posted: Fri May 02, 2008 2:51 pm Post subject: Re: straight draw and nut flush draw after flop |
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| tav wrote: |
I have Ac4d. The button folds and the SB calls. I check hoping to trap him into another post flop bet.
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Trap him with what? You have A4o. Unless you flop 2P, you can't do much trapping. It's hard to say without stack sizes (always important when posting hands) but I'd probably raise in the BB here and hope he was limping with junk and trying to see a cheap flop. A4o isn't really a great hand for playing postflop. |
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ciaran ITH Support
Joined: 10 Sep 2004 Posts: 4781 Location: Alpharetta, GA
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Posted: Fri May 02, 2008 8:58 pm Post subject: |
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He doesn't have to fold often at all for a raise to be fine, we're almost certainly a flip or better vs his flop betting range, so if he folds some small percentage of the time we're +$EV and we're more +$EV the more he folds.
Presumably, we're looking at stacks near 4500 each, so I think a shove on this flop is bad, because that shove should only get called by monsters (though we have reasonable equity even vs monsters). If the pot was 400 and he bet 400 on the flop, I'm fine with re-potting and calling/re-shoving over a 4-bet to get in if it comes to that.
Raising pre-flop is also an option, even shoving is probably OK. I tend to play it like OP, though, because I think it's easier to play a small pot in position with this hand than a large one when we're in this stack neighborhood. |
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ciaran ITH Support
Joined: 10 Sep 2004 Posts: 4781 Location: Alpharetta, GA
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Posted: Fri May 02, 2008 9:21 pm Post subject: |
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| PauliF wrote: | | remember once in the money all that ICM stuff is much less important |
This actually isn't true, though it is important to know that most people play as if it was.
ICM is just as relevant ITM (when not HU) as out, the impact is just different. In a standard SNG, you're playing for a 0-20-30-50 prize pool 4-handed and a 0-25-75 3-handed. So there's more value in playing for 1st 3-handed than 4-handed, for instance, but there are still plenty of times when playing for 2nd beforehand is important. |
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