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nsidestrate
Suited's Love Monkey
Joined: 26 May 2004
Posts: 22657
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 Posted: Tue Jan 22, 2008 9:32 am Post subject: Stars FPP point analysis / earn rate data call |
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I was inspired by this thread to try to work out the dollar value of FPPs on various options:
| Code: | $215 MTT ticket.....1.59¢ per FPP
$650 bonus..........1.30¢ per FPP
concierge service...1.61¢ per FPP
5,400 FPP SNG.......1.67¢ per FPP (pays 4 of 10)
70 FPP..............1.57¢ per FPP (pays 1 of 10) |
The 5,400 FPP SNGs pay almost half the field which minimizes the variance, but the quality of play is much better. In the linked thread, jfletcher actually booked about 2¢ per FPP and Ohjay booked almost 4¢ per FPP in the 70 FPP SNGs. It seems fairly clear to me that FPP sats are probably more +EV than bonuses if you are a good player. However, if you are winning at your chosen game, you probably should factor in the opportunity cost of the time that the SNG takes away from your regular game.
I'm planning to make at run at SuperNova this year (SuperNova Elite is completely out of the question). I've got about 9,000 FPPs so far this year which puts me on track to earn the 100,000 by year end. I was somewhat depressed to learn on 2+2 that someone has already hit SuperNova four days ago. I can't even imagine this. Apparently he did it at 1/2 NL, which really boggles the mind.
I'd also like to gather some statistics on the earn rate for FPPs at various limits and game types. If you would like to help, you need to set your filter for each game type that you play (LHE, 6mac LHE, NLHE and 6max NLHE).
For 6 max games:
Go the hands tab in PokerTracker and get all your hands at each limit. Let the number of hands be "N". Then filter hands where the rake > 0.39 and let the number of those hands be "A". Then filter hands where the rake > 1.99 and let the number of those hands be "B". Your number of FPPs is A+B and the FPP/hand is (A+B)/N.
For full ring games:
Go the hands tab in PokerTracker and get all your hands at each limit. Let the number of hands be "N". Then filter hands where the rake > 0.39 and let the number of those hands be "A". Then filter hands where the rake > 2.99 and let the number of those hands be "B". Your number of FPPs is A+B and the FPP/hand is (A+B)/N.
Cribbing from Stars own guesstimates (only available for Full Ring):
| Code: | ESTIMATED FFPs/hand in FR
Limit NL
$0.50/$1 0.43 0.45
$1/$2 0.45 0.54
$2/$4 0.47 0.65
$3/$6 0.62 0.72
$5/$10 1.09 0.97
$10/$20 1.38 1.02
$15/$30 1.53 1.05
$30/$60 1.51 |
Last edited by nsidestrate on Tue Jan 22, 2008 11:17 am; edited 1 time in total |
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MXRider
Slim Shady
Joined: 19 Jul 2004
Posts: 5019
Location: Have it your way!
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| Posted: Tue Jan 22, 2008 10:29 am Post subject: |
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more than willing to throw some stats out there, but a couple of quick questions:
1. Where is the rake filter? I can't seem to find it.
2. Why are we adding A and B together? I'm sure these are FPP thresholds of some sort. I'm assuming 1 FPP for each pot raked at .40 and 2fpp's for over $3? |
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nsidestrate
Suited's Love Monkey
Joined: 26 May 2004
Posts: 22657
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| Posted: Tue Jan 22, 2008 10:40 am Post subject: |
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| MXRider wrote: | more than willing to throw some stats out there, but a couple of quick questions:
1. Where is the rake filter? I can't seem to find it. |
Dunno. I stole that from a 2+2 post and I'm not at PokerTracker now
| Quote: | | 2. Why are we adding A and B together? I'm sure these are FPP thresholds of some sort. I'm assuming 1 FPP for each pot raked at .40 and 2fpp's for over $3? |
Correct. One threshold for 1 FPP and another for 2 FPP. |
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ciaran
ITH Support
Joined: 10 Sep 2004
Posts: 4781
Location: Alpharetta, GA
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| Posted: Tue Jan 22, 2008 10:58 am Post subject: Re: Stars FPP point analysis / earn rate data call |
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| nsidestrate wrote: | I was inspired by this thread to try to work out the dollar value of FPPs on various options:
| Code: | $215 MTT ticket.....1.59¢ per FPP
$650 bonus..........1.30¢ per FPP
concierge service...1.67¢ per FPP
5,400 FPP SNG.......1.67¢ per FPP (pays 4 of 10)
70 FPP..............1.57¢ per FPP (pays 1 of 10) |
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I didn't look at the original thread completely, but some of these values seem off. Concierge service, as I understand it, is $500/31K points which is 1.61 cents/FPP, and the 5400FPP SNGs (ignoring playing edge) work out to the same 1.59 cents as buying the ticket outright.
FWIW, I'm pretty sure the opportunity cost of playing the various sats swamps the potential for an edge in the sats for anyone actually playing stakes high enough to be Supernova and have access to concierge (which should, given the multitude of options, basically function like straight cash for most people). I say that not having played the 5400s, but I know that playing other FPP sats is hard for me to mix into my regular SNG game, so I'm definitely forfeiting a significant earn by playing them separately. For folks who can mix games more easily, it might not be as big an issue (and perhaps I should give the 5400 point SNGs a try, as they ought to mix well with my normal routine). |
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Willem
2K Club
Joined: 16 Sep 2006
Posts: 2685
Location: Netherlands
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| Posted: Tue Jan 22, 2008 11:03 am Post subject: |
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| MXRider wrote: | | 1. Where is the rake filter? I can't seem to find it. |
You can go to the "Game Notes" tab. You can filter there on hands with at least $x on rake. (make sure you select all hands)
My stats:
$0.50/$1 LHE 6-max
22776 hands
4333 hands with at least $0.40 rake
0 hands with at least $2.00 rake
(A+B)/N = (4333+0)/22776 = 0.19 FPP/hand
$1/$2 LHE 6-max
5110 hands
2013 hands with at least $0.40 rake
0 hands with at least $2.00 rake
(A+B)/N = (2013+0)/5110 = 0.39 FPP/hand
I didn't play anything higher on Stars since I prefer rakeback instead of FPP's. |
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taz115
Hzamm9rd, Yo!!!
Joined: 08 Oct 2005
Posts: 8477
Location: Edmonton, Canada
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| Posted: Tue Jan 22, 2008 11:06 am Post subject: Re: Stars FPP point analysis / earn rate data call |
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| nsidestrate wrote: | | I'm planning to make at run at SuperNova this year |
So much for retiring 
I’ve played in 2 - 5400 FPP Sats and the level of play was quite good with some of the higher limit SNG players sitting in each one. I won them both though 
But I have noticed that they moved the SNGs to the top of the MTT lobby and I think they fill at a much faster rate now, and thus must be attracting players that previously did not know about them. Id guess that the fields got a bit softer… but when you’re a winning 30/60 player I can’t imagine that your edge will be big enough to compensate for your time playing these. And then after you accumulate all those T$ you have to spend the time playing MTTs at some point. I think the almost-cash conversion through the Concierge Service is the way to go unless your primarily a SNG or MTT player already. |
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nsidestrate
Suited's Love Monkey
Joined: 26 May 2004
Posts: 22657
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| Posted: Tue Jan 22, 2008 11:17 am Post subject: Re: Stars FPP point analysis / earn rate data call |
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| ciaran wrote: | | nsidestrate wrote: | I was inspired by this thread to try to work out the dollar value of FPPs on various options:
| Code: | $215 MTT ticket.....1.59¢ per FPP
$650 bonus..........1.30¢ per FPP
concierge service...1.67¢ per FPP
5,400 FPP SNG.......1.67¢ per FPP (pays 4 of 10)
70 FPP..............1.57¢ per FPP (pays 1 of 10) |
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I didn't look at the original thread completely, but some of these values seem off. Concierge service, as I understand it, is $500/31K points which is 1.61 cents/FPP, and the 5400FPP SNGs (ignoring playing edge) work out to the same 1.59 cents as buying the ticket outright. |
The concierge number was a typo. It should be 1.61 as you have posted.
My thinking on the 5,400 SNG is that it pays 4 * 215 tix which is 860 or $86 each. Figuring $4 rake is a value of $90 each which gets me the 1.67 figure. Maybe I shouldn't use any implied rake in the calculation (if you played a real sat, there would be rake...) |
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taz115
Hzamm9rd, Yo!!!
Joined: 08 Oct 2005
Posts: 8477
Location: Edmonton, Canada
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| Posted: Tue Jan 22, 2008 11:20 am Post subject: |
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| I'd calculate the rake into the conversion rate... your not trying to assess the value of the satelite entry... I assume your trying to determine what is the best way to convert FPPs into something that you can/like to use. The rake is a cost of conversion. |
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ciaran
ITH Support
Joined: 10 Sep 2004
Posts: 4781
Location: Alpharetta, GA
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| Posted: Tue Jan 22, 2008 11:25 am Post subject: Re: Stars FPP point analysis / earn rate data call |
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| nsidestrate wrote: | | My thinking on the 5,400 SNG is that it pays 4 * 215 tix which is 860 or $86 each. Figuring $4 rake is a value of $90 each which gets me the 1.67 figure. Maybe I shouldn't use any implied rake in the calculation (if you played a real sat, there would be rake...) |
I don't think the implied rake makes any sense here, as all that matters is how many FPPs you're out of pocket and what your expected earn is when you're comparing to other uses of the same FPPs. |
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nsidestrate
Suited's Love Monkey
Joined: 26 May 2004
Posts: 22657
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| Posted: Tue Jan 22, 2008 11:40 am Post subject: Re: Stars FPP point analysis / earn rate data call |
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| taz115 wrote: | | nsidestrate wrote: | | I'm planning to make at run at SuperNova this year |
So much for retiring |
I'm running good. I'm running about 3.3 bb/100 and really feel like I have a substantial edge as the tables currently stand. I need to play about 83 table hours a month at my limits to make 10,000 VPP/month. I can fairly comfortably two table, so that is only really about 10 hours a week.
The only real problem is that a full 30/60 or 15/30 game doesn't run all the time. I've been experimenting with four tables of 5/10 full ring or two tabling the 10/20 6-max. I think the 10/20 earns FPPs a lot faster. I'm not sure if I'm +EV or not in those games. There are some pretty good players there and I'm making some mistakes when deciding which situations are call-downs and which situations are folds. Against the multi-tabling guys I think I'm making too many Ace high and bottom pair calldowns. I also dropped like $600 against a guy who specializes in HU limit poker when I was trying to get a new 15/30 full ring table started. I'm not enough at HU to be playing specialists at that limit. I had a ton of fun though.
| ciaran wrote: | | nsidestrate wrote: | | My thinking on the 5,400 SNG is that it pays 4 * 215 tix which is 860 or $86 each. Figuring $4 rake is a value of $90 each which gets me the 1.67 figure. Maybe I shouldn't use any implied rake in the calculation (if you played a real sat, there would be rake...) |
I don't think the implied rake makes any sense here, as all that matters is how many FPPs you're out of pocket and what your expected earn is when you're comparing to other uses of the same FPPs. |
I'm not sure. If you bought the Million ticket, you would say that it was worth $215 (not $200). In this case, if the sat was available for money purchase, it would probably be something like $90+6, so it would be reasonable to estimate its value this way. Of course, ignoring the rake more accurately estimates the EV of the tourney assuming no skill edge.
However, that same logic means that you should probably only view the $215 as being worth $200 since that is the neutral EV of your share of the prize pool. It seems to me that we should do apples to apples. Either only count your share of the prize pool or count the rake as part of the value.
Last edited by nsidestrate on Tue Jan 22, 2008 1:29 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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ciaran
ITH Support
Joined: 10 Sep 2004
Posts: 4781
Location: Alpharetta, GA
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| Posted: Tue Jan 22, 2008 11:57 am Post subject: |
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| I've always viewed the ticket as $215, because I almost never play it, cashing it out for SNG buy-ins. |
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nsidestrate
Suited's Love Monkey
Joined: 26 May 2004
Posts: 22657
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| Posted: Tue Jan 22, 2008 12:21 pm Post subject: |
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| ciaran wrote: | | I've always viewed the ticket as $215, because I almost never play it, cashing it out for SNG buy-ins. |
If you buy the $215 ticket with FPPs, you cannot use it for anything else. It doesn't give you 215 T$, but rather a non-exchangeable ticket/token. If you unregister, you just get the ticket back. |
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Mad Eye Moody
Joined: 09 Jan 2008
Posts: 245
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| Posted: Tue Jan 22, 2008 12:21 pm Post subject: |
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This is the type of thread I like to wake up to now I am going to go and read it. I would be interested Nside to hear how many vpps your getting per 100 hands at your level of play? My 2 older kids will be going into school this next year.
I have been thinking about making a run in 2009 at Elite. I crunched the numbers and I would have to put in 6.5hrs a day 28 days a month of 9 tabling 6max to reach this goal at my current level. If someone was going to make this insane run would you recommend doing it by playing FRLH? I forget the exact figures I had came up with but if I could 10 or 12 table FR 3/6 and win just 0.25bb/100 in this chase I would make just under $300k on the year.
If I decide to make a run at it next year then my goal this year would be to get my mind used to playing this many tables. My thinking on this is if I have PAhud and the time to put in the 45.5hrs a week and a big enough BR to last any downswings this goal is achievable. At the start of the year my goal was to have $8k set aside for this insane goal. If at anytime I dropped down under $5k I would back out of this quest. I had my mind all made up on this earlier this month but after reading some threads on it I question my sanity lol. |
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Misunderstud
1K Club
Joined: 10 Jan 2006
Posts: 1684
Location: Here, stupid
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| Posted: Tue Jan 22, 2008 12:22 pm Post subject: |
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I don't really see how you can do this sensibly, because the no. of FPPs you earn depends on your star status. FWIW
.5/1 FR 57,003 hands, of which 12,246 qualified for 1 VPP (0.21 ave)
1/2 FR 29,136 hands, of which 11,566 qualified for 1 VPP (0.4 ave)
None qualified for 2 points, since the max. rake is $1 below 2/4.
Can't say how many FPPs, since I was variously bronze, silver and gold during that period. |
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taz115
Hzamm9rd, Yo!!!
Joined: 08 Oct 2005
Posts: 8477
Location: Edmonton, Canada
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| Posted: Tue Jan 22, 2008 12:24 pm Post subject: |
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| nsidestrate wrote: | | ciaran wrote: | | I've always viewed the ticket as $215, because I almost never play it, cashing it out for SNG buy-ins. |
If you buy the $215 ticket with FPPs, you cannot use it for anything else. It doesn't give you 215 T$, but rather a non-exchangeable ticket/token. If you unregister, you just get the ticket back. |
That is true when you buy the ticket from the store directly (for approximately 13.5k FPPs which I've done before) but ciaran is talking about using the T$ from the Million entries that he has won through the 5400 FPP satelites. Those are convertable. |
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