You have to hit one of three queens, one of three jacks and one of two remaining sixes on the flop.
That leaves 3*3*2 = 18 combinations that will give you top two and villain a set. You know four cards, so there are 48 unknown cards left. They can make 17296 three-card combinations.
18/17296 = 0,001. So it will happen once every thousand hands given that you hold QJ and your opponent holds 66.
Hmm, this number seems to be very low... Where are the experts?
i am really not in the right frame of mind to do this kind of number crunching at the moment
but i would say that as you play more and more there will be a number of strange or freeky things you will see
if you play a million billion trillion hands you will literally have seen it all
the point i am trying to make is that unlikely things will happen
dont get bogged down by this... use your maths skills to work out the things that really matter... your outs... your odds, the pot odds etc etc
in the case of your example you would need to work out the probability that the guy with 66 would play the hand as well as the cards probabilities in order to work out how frequenbtly you would see this... or indeed the QJ guy
i know a lot of people who often don't play these hands.....
in poker the impossible never happens
but the improbable sometimes does
this is really what makes the game exciting
when you are making decisions don't ignore (or indeed get too hung up on) the improbable or highly unlikely.... simple be prepared for them to happen now and then
(although if you are Kjell and 12 table for weeks at a time you will see very unlikely stuff happen almost all the time )
Joined: 07 Apr 2004 Posts: 7630 Location: Drinking Carrot juice
Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2007 1:23 pm Post subject:
Holgininho wrote:
I'm still learning, but I'll try:
You have to hit one of three queens, one of three jacks and one of two remaining sixes on the flop.
That leaves 3*3*2 = 18 combinations that will give you top two and villain a set. You know four cards, so there are 48 unknown cards left. They can make 17296 three-card combinations.
18/17296 = 0,001. So it will happen once every thousand hands given that you hold QJ and your opponent holds 66.
Hmm, this number seems to be very low... Where are the experts?
The number is correct as far as it goes. This is the chance that, in a HU situation, when one player has a pair and the other has 2 non-paired cards, neither of which matches the rank of the pair, you'll have a 2 pair vs set situation on the flop.
But it's not the complete story since there are usually multiple [players involved in a hand the percentages climb rather rapidly (although still remain rather small). That becomes a bit too hard to figure since it depends on:
1) how many players in the hand
2) of those how many hold pairs, how many have unpaired cards, how many common ranks are there between the players in the hand.
But the most important post in this thread is the one by PauliF - because he's absolutely on the money.
It's not worth wasting energy and frustration on these types of things - play long enough and you will, literally, see it all.
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