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mconstab
Joined: 13 Dec 2005
Posts: 385
Location: Warwickshire, UK
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 Posted: Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:07 am Post subject: Should I actually just fold this flop? |
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Villain is 29/9/1.9 over 54 hands
Villains UTG+1 3 bet shows a lot of strength given his initial stats and I only seem to be beating AK and possibly AJs. I had no reads on him when the hand took place so I planned a c/c c/c and then decide on the river. I decided to call the river with the board double pairing as there's a chance he's value betting AK.
I'm so crushed by his range I'm thinking that I can actually just pitch my hand on this flop. Thoughts?
5/10 Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG Constee ($547.53)
UTG+1 king05555 ($201.08)
CO alchimista82 ($641.15)
BTN Slaskala2 ($138.55)
SB Nobben ($419.51)
BB nit6 ($102.20)
Pre-flop: (1.5 SB, 6 players)
Constee raises, king05555 3-bets, 4 folds, Constee calls
Flop:    (7.5 SB, 2 players)
Constee checks, king05555 bets, Constee calls
Turn:  (4.8 BB, 2 players)
Constee checks, king05555 bets, Constee calls
River:  (6.8 BB, 2 players)
Constee checks, king05555 bets, Constee calls
Final Pot: 8.4 BB
Constee shows:  
king05555 shows:  
king05555 wins 8.4 BB ( won +4.5 BB )
Constee lost 4.0 BB |
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Cript
Cheesehead
Joined: 13 Feb 2004
Posts: 5086
Location: Milwaukee, WI
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| Posted: Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:15 am Post subject: |
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What are your hole cards?
Edit: I see, they're at the end.
No, no way in hell am I folding at any time during this hand. I will sometimes play it faster than you. |
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Willem
2K Club
Joined: 16 Sep 2006
Posts: 2652
Location: Netherlands
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| Posted: Tue Sep 09, 2008 12:09 pm Post subject: |
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| 66 is usually a calldown on this board. But if his range is so strong, folding the flop may be a better line. Or you can call the flop and fold the turn, as he might check behind Ax on the turn. |
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Cript
Cheesehead
Joined: 13 Feb 2004
Posts: 5086
Location: Milwaukee, WI
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| Posted: Tue Sep 09, 2008 1:03 pm Post subject: |
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| What were your stats? Just curious how lightly he'd be 3-betting you if he's observing. |
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mconstab
Joined: 13 Dec 2005
Posts: 385
Location: Warwickshire, UK
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| Posted: Tue Sep 09, 2008 1:40 pm Post subject: |
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| Willem wrote: | | 66 is usually a calldown on this board. But if his range is so strong, folding the flop may be a better line. Or you can call the flop and fold the turn, as he might check behind Ax on the turn. |
Yea I think in this case villains range is polarized to basically top 5% as he's only raising 9% (granted it's a small sample size) so I think seeing a showdown is incorrect against this range. I quite like your line of calling the flop to reevaluate on the turn because If I call the turn then I probably have to call the river.
I just stoved the flop action, against a 6% 3 bet range we have 25% equity and 26% on the turn. This obviously assumes he will bet his full range again on the turn.
Last edited by mconstab on Tue Sep 09, 2008 1:46 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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mconstab
Joined: 13 Dec 2005
Posts: 385
Location: Warwickshire, UK
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| Posted: Tue Sep 09, 2008 1:43 pm Post subject: |
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| Cript wrote: | | What were your stats? Just curious how lightly he'd be 3-betting you if he's observing. |
Not sure what my stats were at the time but I play 28/21/2 over a large sample although I've been lagging it up a bit recently so may be a factor. I'm just not sure he's going to open his range too much wider when I raise UTG and he's next to act. |
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Cript
Cheesehead
Joined: 13 Feb 2004
Posts: 5086
Location: Milwaukee, WI
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| Posted: Tue Sep 09, 2008 2:18 pm Post subject: |
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| mconstab wrote: | | Cript wrote: | | What were your stats? Just curious how lightly he'd be 3-betting you if he's observing. |
Not sure what my stats were at the time but I play 28/21/2 over a large sample although I've been lagging it up a bit recently so may be a factor. I'm just not sure he's going to open his range too much wider when I raise UTG and he's next to act. |
Good point...I 3-bet light against someone with a pfr that high, but probably not from ep. |
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