Shorty pushes and gets a caller

[Radford]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $30+$3 Tournament, t50/t100 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 (t1875)
MP1 (t7550)
MP2 (t2320)
Radford999 (MP3) (t3580)
CO (t6820)
Button (t2415)
SB (t3185)
BB (t439)
UTG (t3005)

Preflop: Radford999 is MP3 with ,
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t100, 1 fold, MP2 calls t100, Radford999 calls t100, CO calls t100, Button calls t100, SB calls t50, BB checks

Flop: (t700) , , (7 players)
SB checks, BB bets t339 (All-In), 1 fold, MP2 raises to t2220 (All-In), Radford999?

The caller of the push seems very aggressive. Could AJ be good here? I'm 100% calling the shortys push. But he got a caller. I don't know how wide villians calling range is. But i've seen him in alot of pots. I suspect that if he had AA/KK/77/AQ/AK he's probably raising PF.

[Tall Paul]

Ugh. AJ may well be good against this aggressive villain, but there are still 3 players to act. Unfortunately, in an unraised pot preflop, there are potential for sets, two pair and flush draws to be out there. I think I'd fold here.

I don't like your limp preflop at all. AJ doesn't play well in multi-way pots, and with 2 limpers already, it's just encouraging more people to limp in. Sticking a nice raise in preflop would've got rid of the players behind us and either taken the blinds and limps, or we could play a HU or 3-way pot in position.

[cowboyfan]

I'm folding.

There are a lot of hands that don't have us beat but have good draws with that many limpers (KQ, TJ, two random spades) not to mention a couple of combo draws KsQs, TsJs and the like. That's a lot of bullets to dodge with two cards to come if you currently have the best hand. You still have more than enough chips to play with here. I'm not calling off 2/3 of my stack in this spot.

[emmapeel]

I don't think the BB will have much here; either a worse ace or weaker I think. I think we should have MP2 beat too. It seems a big bet to make with 77 or A7 and pre-flop action might rule out other big hands; AQ should raise pre-flop although some players might call.

I think the later players shouldn't be so much danger either so I'm going to call here. It is bordeline though as MP shouldn't have a bluff here but I'm going to call.

EP

[jmbreslin]

I also don't like the PF limp, AJ is definitely a raise in that spot.

I think it's very relevant that MP2 pushed to isolate the shortie rather than called. That, combined with the lack of PF raise and your read on him, suggests that a big hand is unlikely. He may have a middling Ace and wants to get HU against the shortie. I can't imagine he would push to isolate the shortie with an unmade hand, such as a draw here. He would be much, much better off flat-calling in that case to create the proper pot odds for his draw.

The only set you have to worry about is 77, and you don't have to dodge overcards, so I think the most legit threat is a draw. Since this is an MTT I probably take the chance here and push my stack in. Force the others out of the hand or charge them the max to chase their draws. I definitely think you're good against MP2 here.

[cowboyfan]

I don't think that MP2 is the real issue here either, but there are still 3 people behind us that are a real concern. 77 is a sure possibility with that many limpers. Any two spades are a major concern as well. Any two paint cards could also be an issue.

If we call, there will be ~5400 in the pot. If CO is on some kind of spade or combo draw, he's almost got the odds. With the pot being almost the size of his stack, he's probably going all the way with it. If BTN has a naked Ace and the pot is now 7,600, do you not think that it's not worth the gamble to him? What if he has two paint, is the draw worth it then? Let's also not forget about the SB. He checked the flop, but could have nearly anything.

I think you're now dodging almost 1/2 the deck hoping that we're not already behind (AQ limping with that many people isn't out of the question). Honestly, is it worth that risk here?

[emmapeel]

I feel that this is a fold but when I think about it I want to call.

The chance of any of the other 3 people being ahead is interesting. Lets say that it is either A7 or 77 which are nice limping hands. Let's say that each player limps with about 25% of hands too.

I'm going to guess that on the flop we will be up against about 1000 combinations of cards as we already know 5. I know that there are 1326 combinations before we are dealt our cards and 1225 I think when we see our cards so 1000 seems about right after seeing the flop.

So of these 1000 combinations each player is limping with 25% or 250 combinations. On the flop there are only 3 combinations to account for a set of 7's and only 6 for A7 also. That makes 9 combinations which I will round up to 10 for ease and to account for the odd K7 limp.

So the chance of anyone behind having a better hand on the flop is 10 out of 250 per player or about 4%. In total it is going to be about a 10% chance that we will be beat by someone behind us.

Not a lot but I suppose it is significant when we are pushing our whole stack in.

I think I'm still going to go with my analysis and call although it feels a bit wrong.

EP