Short Stack - Hand #1

[blah730235]

MP1 is a fish. CO is a decent but not great TAG

$0.25/$0.10 NL holdem - full ring

Hero has 20bbs, rest of the villans have 100bbs

Hero is UTG+1 and is dealt
1 fold, Hero raises 1$, MP1 Calls 1$, 2 folds, CO re-raises to 3$, 3 folds, Hero Calls 2$, MP1 Calls 2$

Alrighty so when the action is first on me UTG+1 I just open-raise 4bb there really isn't much sense in going for a limp/3bet at this table - villans just aren't aggresive enough preflop. The fish calls me which is great and the TAG squeezes, I really read this as 1010+, AQ+ as I don't think he's good enough to try to iso 3bet the fish with a wide range. The fish obviously has a very wide range. So the action is back on me and I'm in a very intresting spot, I know the TAG will call 2$ more into the pot with his entire range if I push but the fish might be intemidated out of the pot by a 4bet. So instead of just pushing here I go ahead and call and plan on donk pushing ANY flop. This accomplishes two things it makes it more likely the fish will come along to the flop and call a 2$ bet on the flop if his hand connects at all AND the TAG might make a mistake by folding a hand like AK that whiffs the flop even when he has odds call to suck-out on a pair. Also I'm only taking this line because I am short-stacked neither villan is getting good implied odds by my calling.

***FLOP***
Hero is all-in for 2$, MP1 calls 2$, CO calls 2$

Ok great flop for me I push as planned, MP1 should basically have a pair, pp, or flush draw here most of the time. CO calls but unforuntaly does not try to build a side-pot, (which he should have done with alot of his range). If CO had tried to build a side-pot there is a decent chance he might have chased the fish out the pot which means more money for me since the fish won't get the chance to suck-out on me.

***TURN***
MP1 checks, CO checks

Again the TAG does not build a side-pot again, I defintaly don't think he holds AA/KK at this point. And they both gets a chance to suck-out on me.

***RIVER***
MP1 checks, CO checks

***SHOWDOWN***
I remember that the TAG had AQo but cannot remember fishy's exact hand I think it was a pair of 87o


So... thoughts on this hand?

[Scully]

Personally I want to play this heads up as KK, like all high pocket pairs, plays better against one opponent than two.

The fact that the fish has limped and will fold to a 4 bet is great as he's simply inflated a pot that he won't be in.

As played shoving the flop is a no brainer.

As an aside, I hope that you won this pot and then left the table. Many people see hit and running as bad mannered and I have a degree of sympathy with them. However the whole point of buying in short is to wait for a spot to double up and then get the hell out. Otherwise you're left playing a 40-50bb stack which is not your strategy, and is also pretty difficult. If you're making a conscious decision to play short, make sure you ONLY play short.

I expect a few comments about this as a lot of people dislike shorties (me included sometimes), but as long as the site allows you to do it I consider it a viable strategy. You do what you have to do to get the money IMO, so even though it's not a strategy I personally like I won't condemn it.

[emmapeel]

I think I'm pushing pre-flop after the re-raise. I think calling is basically the same thing as it is not much difference. Calling is an interesting attempt to get more EV though. It encourages the other player to call more often and he might do that with 77 as opposed to a push where 77 might fold.

It will be annoying if the other player who just called has AQ though and an Ace flops.

A good question is what to do on the flop if an ace flops. I think I would go all-in anyway but I would question my decision to let Ax play pre-flop instead of making an isolation push.

Pushing pre-flop is easiest and much simpler than just calling. It looks like the best play but some long sums might prove otherwise.

EP

[emmapeel]

Now I've read the red type it does seem like calling pre-flop was a strategy that was played to include the fish player post-flop. I like this idea and it might be best. The fish should call with a lot more than just Ax here.

Not sure if calling was better than pushing pre-flop but I like the reasons for doing so and the idea may be the best play.

My own view of shortstacking is that people can play any way they like. It could be that shortstacking is more profitable for some players than any other strategy so they should be allowed to do it. It also encourages weaker players into the game who may not feel comfortable risking a bigger stack.

It is annoying though when you have to fold most of your hands as there are no implied odds against the shortstacker and there is also no room to outplay them postflop.

EP

[blah730235]

[Scully]

I'll let someone else do the numbers, but if you let him in with A-rag, and you're up against the other opponent as well I doubt you'll be much more than 60% to win the hand.

Against A-rag alone you're only 70% favourite.

Edit - i have done some numbers - let's say you're up against JJ and A6 - you are 58% favourite to win at showdown. If the JJ becomes QJ you're only 60%.

Obviously if you're up against AK and A-rag you're in much better shape as their outs are counterfeited.

Let's say the JJ and A6 hands are what you're up against which seems quite possible.

If you re-raise all in and the fish folds there's $11.35 in the pot. Against JJ you're around 80% favourite and so your expectation is $9.08

If you flat and end up against A6 and JJ and the hand plays the same the pot is $15.35 and you're around 58% favourite which gives an expectation of $8.90.

The difference is $0.18, so not huge so I guess it's pretty close whether you want the flat or RR PF. However $0.18 this represents 72% of a BB, or 36% of a PTBB. If you're aim is to win 4 PTBB/100 this is not that insignificant.

I'd also throw in the possible -EV of a tilt factor if the fish sucks out on you by hitting trips 6s or something.

Having done these numbers I still prefer a push but don't hate the stop n go

[emmapeel]

I've done a quick sum with pokerstove and I'm warming to the play in the hand.

Pushing will likely result in a heads up pot where we are about a 60% favorite to win. Against AK+ JJ+ we are about 62% so 60% seems about right. The pot will be about $10.

Calling has a chance of including the fish and if he has AJ for example then our chance to win is not much different; 56%. But this time the pot is about £15 if it all goes in. This looks a much better scenario.

Oddly enough if the fish has 99 instead of AJ then we do worse at only 50%. Heads up we'd much rather see 99 but in this scenario and 3 handed we do much better against AJ.

I think the above anomally has something to do with the fact that in a lot of cases KK will be up against both players with an ace and therefore they will counterfiet each other.

I like the call now as letting in Ax is not such a big deal and we are far ahead of anything else.

EP

[mash_tun]

Did something similar to Emma & Scully...

Let's do a quick guesstimate with the following assumptions:

Tag 3-bettor range: TT+, AQs+, AQo+
Fish range: 22+, A6s+, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, A6o+, KTo+, QTo+, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o


You've got about 56% equity versus that range played out to the river AIPF versus both villains, and 68% equity just versus the TAG. So, if your plan is to call, entice fish to flop, then push any flop and win, you will profit either 33BB (TAG villain calls, fish folds), or 41BB (both call). It gets complicated figuring EV of both scenarios, since you need to consider different flops that the fish may call an open-shove with, but I'm going to simplify and say that he calls about 40% of the time (just assuming chances of pairing 2 unpaired hole cards, plus bigger PPs)

Versus the TAG only:

32% of time, you’re losing 20BBs = 0.32*20 = (-6.4 BB)
68% of time, you’re winning ~33BBs = +22.4 BB
Net EV = +16.0 * 0.6 = +9.6 BB

Versus Both Villains:

44% of time, you’re losing 20BBs = (-8.8 BB)
56% of time, you’re winning ~41BBs = +23.0 BB
Net EV = +14.2 * 0.4 = +5.7 BB

Total EV Your Line = +15.3 BB


If, on the other hand, you push preflop, you're going to get the TAG to call just about 100% of the time...and the fish will also probably call some smaller % of the time...I'm going to guesstimate that from the original calling range, he'll call your preflop shove with 22+,A9s+,KQs,ATo+,KQo...

So preflop shove line, you'll have 68% equity versus the TAG, and 55% equity versus both villains. You'll be up against both villains about 43% of the time, based on the fishies' initial calling range and shove calling range.

Versus the TAG only:

32% of time, you’re losing 20BBs = 0.32*20 = (-6.4 BB)
68% of time, you’re winning ~25BBs = +17 BB
Net EV = +10.6 * 0.57 = +6.0 BB

Versus Both Villains:

45% of time, you’re losing 20BBs = (-9.0 BB)
55% of time, you’re winning ~41BBs = +22.6 BB
Net EV = +13.6 * 0.43 = +5.8 BB

Total EV Preflop Shove = 11.8 BB


So, long-term, your line should show about 21% more profit...with obviously more short-term volatility...