Satellites sure are tough Hand #1

[Suited_Jock]

sat 7th of 8.

7 seats

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t600/t1200
(Ante: t75)
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t40105
UTG+1: t38670
MP1: t32890
MP2: t30890
CO: t34892
Button: t81888
SB: t12100
Hero: t20065

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is BB with
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to t6000, 5 folds, Hero ???

[Suited_Jock]

8th gets not a penny... not that it matters

[BernardDogs]

Nice.

You're still vulnerable. And you're against another mid stack who doesn't want to go out now. Push or fold. I'd be fine with either one. I think you can survive the shortstack here, but there is an outside chance that he'll double and you'll be shorty.

If you were shorty, you'd love QQ.

I think I push.

BD

[chrisjp]

Is this a flat payout satellite, and if so how many seats? Checking out Kill Phil on this one: with an M of 4 to 10 you have to move in here. Kill Phil is rather rudimentary, but with only 12 holdings that crush you and an M<10....in a regular tournament it's a no brainer push IMO.

Now a flat payout may be a totally different story.

EDIT: Oh sorry, I see it's 7 seats so you're right on the bubble. I fold here. Fold, fold, fold. Some idiot's going to incorrectly overplay a hand; let some other poor fellow tell a bad beat story.

Chris

[Suited_Jock]

This is 7 seats to the $650 EPT sattelite.


8th place gets nothing whatsoever.

[nsidestrate]

I understand the logic for folding, but I don't think I can do it. If I had a slightly bigger stack, I'd fold in a second. As it is, I think I'd push. I have a good chance he won't call and I'm afraid I'll end up playing for all my chips with a crappier hand against multiple players later.

[maalox111]

It's a difficult decision, but I agree with nsiderate. You're in that borderline zone where a dry run of cards or someone coming over the top to one of your pre-flop raises can quickly make you a short stack. If your stack was about 10,000 larger I'd fold, but I think the likelyhood you'll run into AA or KK versus the benefit of having those extra chips + your folding equity makes it worth pushing all-in.

But you really can't be faulted for folding. It's not a clear decision.

[chrisjp]

I just can't play this hand with a shortie in the game. With an M=8 you can stay around for a long time. Players don't understand this structure and you eventually see some middle stacks confront each other usually.

Yes the raiser might fold, but he will not be supershort if he calls. And that's one of the problems. These raisers too frequently incorrectly call. Then you are probably a 53-70% favorite, or a 20% dog occasionally. Finishing 8th with an M of 8 and a short stack at the tournament is cause for tears....

QQ Why risk it? You have plenty of time....

Chris

[poker_Elmo]

I think I call with QQ here, and push if no A or K hits, ch-fold if an A or K hits.

You are in trouble if he has AA or KK if you decide to play aggro. If you simply push, an AT, KJ, etc. might call, and you DON'T want that here.

Calling with the QQ you are a favorite to either hit your set of have no overs on the flop. If that happens, you probably now have a much more comfortable stack.


p.s. I used to think fold on these situations, but in non-turbo sats, you don't see too many eggregious bubble errors anymore. I think I would rather take my chances here than simply get blinded down with the other short stack and hope he busts when he is all in first.

[Seadood228]

Errr... I don't see why anyone is advocating playing this hand. You have plenty of time, and you don't really have enough to destroy the original raiser.

Just let 'em go and wait for others to make the mistakes. I don't think you can manipulate the math in any way to make this a push.

[OgreMkV]

I've played these EPT sats on Stars before and an M of 8 is just as good as nothing.

These people play TIGHT!!!!!!!!!! Like 2 complete orbits with the BB getting the pot. Now that gives us a couple possibilities:

1) UTG+1 might be on a steal and he won't call a push... he would become the second short stack and he doesn't want to risk that.

2) He's got a good hand, but not that good and will fold to a push.

3) He's got aces or kings and you're dead money.

He's not in any danger of going out and he won't be even if he folds this hand. Everyone should be banging on SB and waiting for button to knock him out. In fact, some people even advocate folding AA to a push in this kind of satellite. All it takes is a Q and he's suddenly the target of everyone at the table.

I say push. You won't see better than QQ in a while.

[chrisjp]

[Seadood228]

Ok let's try some math, as shaky as that might be given the information.

First we have to put the villian on a hand. If we assume the table is playing tight, I think it's pretty safe to give him the range 99-AA and AJ-AK from UTG. If the table is playing loose, well, then it'd make no sense to play QQ here anyway so we can eliminate that.

So if you push here, villian will be getting about 22k/14.3k on his call. If he calls and loses he's down to 18k, which will be essentially a flip-flop. If he folds he's down to 32k, which'll be middle of the pack. I'm not quite sure what to make of his large raise, but to me it looks like he made a raise that's so big he'll call against the blinds, but fold against any of the larger stacks behind him.

So let's say he calls very infrequently, like 1/3 times. So 66% of the time you'll win 8400 chips making your stack about 27k, WHICH IS STILL #7. The other 33% of the time, you are about a 60/40 favorite against his range of hands.

So about 13% of the time if you push, you'll be an immediate gonner, 20% of the time you'll double and most likely advance, the other 66% you'll win 8400 chips and be sitting near the middle of the pack, but still in seventh place.

So can anyone honestly say the amount of times you'll advance with 27k chips as opposed to 19k chips will offset being immediately knocked out 13% of the time? Especially when 85.7% of the entrants are going to get a seat? Am I missing something?

[niin]

I think I definitely fold here... one short stack, lots of middle stacks, you aren't in a terrible amount of danger right now.

[Dire]

This seems 100% read dependant to me. If UTG+1 has been playing aggressively lately and taking stabs at numerous pots, then it's time to push it all in. Similarly, if he's been playing pretty tight and not raising very often ( or if you have no read whatsoever ) - then it's fold time.