Sanity check please

[janeg]

I'm getting killed at $1/$2 on FT, this is a fairly common example of what I'm running into with overpairs.

Full Tilt Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Preflop: Hero is Button with ,
1 fold, MP calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, MP calls


BB and MP are typical of about 20% of the opponents I run into.

MP, have 70 hands on him; stats are 67/16 AF: 1/2/4. He goes to SD 40% and his W$SD is 38%. If he raises the turn his W$SD is 40%, if he raises the river, his W$SD is 33%.

I've seen him make the following moves:
* cap a paired flop (373) and lead the T and R with air against 2 opponents
* raise the T with a 4FD against 2 opps
* bluff raise the river when a 3rd suit hit


BB: have 173 hands on him, stats are 64/12, AF 1/1/4. He folds his blind 25% so his call here is typical. He goes to SD 38% and his W$SD is 69% (a red flag??). If he raises the T his W$SD is 40%, if he raises the R his W$SD is 75%.

I've seen him make the following moves:
* cd w/1 over card or 2 under cards
* cd w/SPP or BPNK
* raise a GS on the F and T
* raise any street with air and more than 1 opp
* raise the T with BPNK
* donk the river and fold to a raise

Both players will donk bet the flop on low boards.



Flop: (6.5 SB) , , (3 players)
BB bets, MP raises, Hero 3-bets, BB caps, MP calls, Hero calls


Given that both will donk bet low boards and are capable of raising made hands, OESD's, GS's, and any pair I figure I'm still well ahead of their ranges. Ran the numbers through PS assuming they make these plays with any set, 2 pair, top pair, middle pair, bottom pair, 9x, 4x or 5x. PS gives the QQ's 42.5% against their ranges.


Turn: (9.25 BB) (3 players)
BB bets, MP raises, Hero ??


A money card hits, if one of them holds a 5 they just got there. After playing around with PS and their ranges, I figure there's roughly a 22% chance one of them has a 5. If I call there's a good chance it gets capped and the river will most likely cost me another 2BB, maybe more.

If my assumptions are right and I'll have to pay another 6BB minimum. Pot has 9BB + 3BB + 2BB = 14BB (pot and their bets) + 2 more from both on river (18BB). Need to win 6/(18 + 6) = 25% to break even. PS gives 26% Equity against their ranges.

Are my assumptions right? Marginal at best, so fold? Or grit my teeth and CD?

[the_hawk]

[janeg]

Hi Hawk ... my problem with these type of players is that, because they are capable of betting/raising anything from air (even into 2 opps) to the nuts I never know quite how to analyze the hand. At the time I thought I could be behind but thought the ranges were so wide I wasn't necessarily behind. I need a better handle on how to think about these situations at the table

[the_hawk]

In full ring it's easy (in theory) - you can pick and choose your spots fairly ruthlessly. I guess the need to be somewhat less picky in 6-max makes the question much more difficult.

[thew92]

I think you have to fold here. It is most likely going most to cost 8 big bets to get showdown. But the good new is that you are at a great table.

The other option is call the turn here for the 2 big bets here and if it cost you another 2 big bets on the turn you can fold.