Posted: Thu Dec 21, 2006 6:38 pm Post subject: Sample size, win rate and accuracy. How are they related?
Some day on some site I have read a post that gave me the impression that it is possible to calculate how far off your Poker Tracker win rate from your real win rate is. This is the reason for this post.
I have seen posts where people think they are the greatest or the worst player in the world; or they might think that they are the luckiest or least lucky person in the world. Most of the time this are very new players who see a very high win rate in their Poker Tracker or they see are very high lose rate.
The standard answer then usually is: "Kid, forget that. Your sample size is way to small to say anything about your real win rate."
But isn't it possible to calculate how far away (in %) your Poker Tracker win rate is from your real win rate by taking things such as # of hands played, current Poker Tracker win rate and your standard deviation into account?
The same question as a simple example:
Is it possible to say that with X hands, a standard deviation of Y and a Poker Tracker win rate of Z your Poker Tracker win rate is in the range of +/- M percent to your true win rate?
Maybe I didn't use the right things which would be needed for the formula but I hope you get the idea.
I just think it would be psychologically good to be able to think: "I have A hands played and Poker Tracker says my win rate is B. I know that this is not my true win rate but I also know that it is not more of than C percent away from it."
Final questions:
1) Which factors are needed?
2) How does the formula look like?
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