Rivered straight; thoughts on all streets welcome...

[mash_tun]

Bodog 100NL. Same table as my FH Hand I posted today. BB appears to be a semi-decent TAG, but not too aggressive. MP1 is loose/passive, overvalues top pair hands, and is a calling station. MP2 also appears to be loose/passive overall, overvaluing pairs. Hand of note for MP2: during this session, he had made a PFR w. QQ in EP, check/called a Qxx flop even though there were str8 and flush draws, then check/raised the turn.

Effective stacks for all players to the turn were > 120BBs

Hero is BTN with .

MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop ($6):

BB, MP1, MP2, CO all check, Hero bets $5, SB folds, BB raises to $10, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Turn ($46):

BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks.

River ($46):

BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets $40, Hero???

[Taardvark]

If your read is correct a bet of that size on the river from a passive opponent is a very strange line on this hand. KK seems unlikely based on preflop action but I don't think we can discount it entirely. It's a crappy line to take with one limper already but it does happen. K9 could be in the range of a loose / passive player and actually seems more likely than KK. 99 is pretty unlikely. 66 is pretty consistent with this line. Most would limp with it pre flop and this is a reasonably safe board to slow play although the flush draw is out there but you indicated that doesn't factor in to his equation. 55 is a remote possibility, even less likely than KK I think.

You took a stab on the turn and if I just improved to a full house I'd check to you here and see if you open the pot again. I'm not too afraid of most river cards.

The bet on the river is interesting. I think I have to fold this though. I do have some concerns about MP2 but the thing that scares me is if MP1 has something like a 2 pair hand and goes nuts and repops this we're putting an awful lot of money into a pot where we could very well have a 2nd or 3rd best hand here. I'd hate to call the $40, have it reopened and then realize if MP1 pops it and then MP2 pushes that we have to bail.

[emmapeel]

I don't think I'm betting the flop with calling types in the hand.

On the river 99, 66, and K9 are ahead and mp might have slowplayed a set like he has done before. I think I am still going to call though as I think I'm beating enough here. Close for me though.

EP

[nsidestrate]

You guys are seriously looking at folds? Wow.

I'm never folding this in a hundred years. I would have to choose between calling and hoping for overcalls or raising. We think MP2 has a boat? Why? He called a bet and a min-raise on the flop, which could be a slowplay. He checked the turn after the raiser checked, when he should have been trying to build a big pot if he just filled up. His line could so easily be a King or trips here. Given that you have about $65 more left, I guess you have to just call since the board is paired, but I'm not even thinking about folding.

The only thing that makes me think he has a boat is that Mash posted this. A guy who "overvalues pairs" has to be called here, I think.

[mash_tun]

[nsidestrate]

[Fumseck]

1) Based on the action on all the streets I am not folding this on the river.
2) I am not raising either. Just because the board is paired and there are a lot of players in the hand. We are also going for overcalls.
3) So I guess I call.

BB gives action prelfop by min check raising your bet. You are on the button and he probably does not believe you have a good hand. Normally by min raising he makes it very expensive for the other players and he probably hopes they will fold and he can make a c-bet on the turn to take the pot down. I would put BB's range has a semi strong K (KQ, QJ) or maybe a 9 (it would make no sense min raising a flush draw). But MP1 and MP2 both call which kills is action on the turn.

Obvioulsy MP1 or MP2 has a flush draw.

Since there are a lot of players still in the hand on the turn, BB would probably not bet a K because one of the other players may have a 9 in his hand. If BB had a 9, he should have bet it. He must realize that no one will bluff at this pot on the turn and he needs to protect for a flush draw.
Everyone checks. One of them has a flush draw the other one may have a 9. I would expect a bet from a 9, but I have seen stranger things.

On the River, BB checks again (so we should not be worried about him, he does not have a monster, if he did he would have bet on the river after everyone checked the turn), same goes for MP1 (he was likely on the flush draw).

When MP2 bets, we are either facing a 9, a boat, quads or a pure bluff. Given the action, I doubt he has a boat or quads. If he had a set on the flop, going for the check raise is possible, but there is only one player acting after him so he should have bet out. With a bet (from you), a min raise (form BB) and a call (from MP1) he should have re raised for value with a set (if he was going for the c/r).

I also doubt it's a pure bluff, there are just too many players to bluff out of the pot. The only hand that beats us that I can see him holding in this spot would be K9s. But I think he will hold A9, Q9, J9 often enough to make this call a profitable one.

[emmapeel]

The thing that makes me think about folding is the play of MP2 on the flop. It's an odd thing to do with just top pair; why not bet that in the first place. I suppose a fishy type might do this though.

I think you can get an idea of what to do here with hand combinations.

I think villain having a 9 with a flush draw on the flop makes sense. This would make roughly half a dozen hands with one combination for each hand; T9s etc.

Against that we have 66, 99, and K9 I think. That makes about 10 combinations. (3+1+6)

So roughly speaking we have 10 hands ahead against 6 behind. I think that makes for a fold just.

I think if you add in bluffs and some other hands that a call would be good here. Villain may not always play K9 either.

I think this is still a call but I would still be a bit worried when calling.

EP