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River problem: How often is this a flush?

 
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Schlepper333
1K Club


Joined: 07 Feb 2006
Posts: 1211
Location: Las Vegas

PostPosted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 9:26 am    Post subject: River problem: How often is this a flush? Reply with quote

Villain is typical loose player

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.20 Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is BB with 7 Club: A Spade:
5 folds, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, Hero checks

Flop: (3 SB) 6 Club: 5 Spade: 8 Club: (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, SB calls

Turn: (3 BB) 8 Spade: (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, SB folds

River: (5 BB) 4 Club: (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero ??
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Bugsbunny
Wascally


Joined: 07 Apr 2004
Posts: 7752
Location: Drinking Carrot juice

PostPosted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 1:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Often enough (or a full house), but you could well be looking at a split pot. Trips or 2 of a kind, or even a bluff (although less likely) aren't out of the realm of possibility. Without a good read you need to call this.

FWIW this is the type of river card I like to check-call. A lot of people will try to bet the river if you check, even with nothing, hoping to steal the pot. True even at the limits you're talking about (I think). And if they do have the flush/[full house] you only lose 1 unit.
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Piscivorous
Bamboozler


Joined: 06 May 2004
Posts: 5001
Location: Just being lovable

PostPosted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm with Bugs here. Even at this limit you will see a raise on the turn if he already has a hand. When the third club comes, you need to check/call. My reasoning is, if he has hit the flush you'll lose just the called bet. If he checks behind you'll usually win the pot.
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thew92



Joined: 27 Jul 2005
Posts: 887
Location: Texas

PostPosted: Fri Oct 24, 2008 11:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like the Bet/Call line a lot more than the Check/Call line. With the Check/Call line you are letting a lot of 1 pair and A high hands that might call you off the hook.
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Bugsbunny
Wascally


Joined: 07 Apr 2004
Posts: 7752
Location: Drinking Carrot juice

PostPosted: Fri Oct 24, 2008 11:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

thew92 wrote:
I like the Bet/Call line a lot more than the Check/Call line. With the Check/Call line you are letting a lot of 1 pair and A high hands that might call you off the hook.


A lot of those players will bet after you check, unless they're extremely passive - and even those may surprise you. When the hand is HU even passive people try to make plays.

Yes some will check behind where they would call a bet, and you lose out on those. But you gain on those who would fold to a bet but can't resist taking a stab if you check. I suspect the 2nd group, on this type of board, is greater than the first. I also suspect that, when you're raised, you lose more often than you win (although you win/split often enough to make the call mandatory).

If you have a strong read on a player this can change things, obviously. I'm talking about basic unknowns.
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