River play...again!

[Schlepper333]

Villain is typical loose/passive

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.20 Limit Hold'em - 7 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is BB with T : T :
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, CO calls

Flop: (6.5 SB) 2 : 6 : 6 : (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, CO folds

Turn: (4.25 BB) Q : (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls

River: (6.25 BB) 5 : (2 players)
Hero ??

[Damien]

I check/call the river

[Misunderstud]

I'd like a second opinion, but I think there's a value bet here, and a pretty safe fold if raised.

[Damien]

I'm not very good at doing this but using PokerStove I assigned what i think a typical loose/passive player might limp in with from EP (without knowing his PFR it was a little more difficult)

Villains Range PF: 99-55,A9s-A4s,KJs-K9s,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,87s,AJo-A7o,KTo+,QTo+,JTo,T9o

If this range were dead on, than hero is an 80% favorite on the river, so the value bet might indeed be correct. I probably miss out on river value quite a bit, but since all we have here is MP on a paired board still makes me lean towards a check/call. That being said, I don't thin you have to worry about him having a 6 at all given his probable range and the betting pattern (I suspect even a passive player will get more aggro with flopped trips, if not on the flop, then at least on the turn). The Qx hand is what we're afraid of, unless he's playing AA or KK very strangely. That's my analysis and i could be way off as usual. My default would still be to check/call.

[mconstab]

You have to bet the river here.

The problem with checking is that what weaker hands is villain going to be betting the river with if checked to? He checks behind ace high and more than likely pairs below your T's. I don't see much value in checking to induce as the board contains no draws for villain to make a river bluff with a busted draw. Also this particular villain is passive which makes him even more likely to check behind with weaker hands.

If we check and villain bets we're likely beat. So as we have the intention of calling a bet 100% on this river then we may as well bet to extract value from worse hands. If raised against a passive opponent I believe you can make a fold. The game is 7 handed so villains range can be fairly wide.

I think the key is that villain will check behind far more weaker hands than he will bet if checked to.

[Schlepper333]

I did check/call and villain showed 43c for a suck-out straight.

I have been on a down swing lately and wanted to check for leaks. This kind of suck out has been happening frequently lately. I moved up to .10/.20 the first of the month and also wanted to be certain I am not in over my head. It does not feel a lot different than .05/.10 but my win rate is down from the rate I enjoyed at .05/.10. Thanx for the tips. I know this one garnered some various opinions but it was helpful anyway.

[Damien]

[Schlepper333]

[Damien]

In addition to this being an obvious fold for him pre-flop, he also should have folded the turn ( I beleive the flop call was okay). I know you know it, but just to give you some moral support, you absolutely DO want these donks in your game. There will be stretches where it seemd that everytime they happen to hit there 2, 3, or 4 outer, it is always against you. You sit and watch as this donk gets involved in big pots with others and misses every time you happen to not be in the pot. I've been there... A LOT. It is frustrating, but in the long run, your solid play will prevail. Today, for instance, I had some maniac at my table... stats something like 70/30/4. Are mark players like this with a pink color and I love sitting down with them. Every once in a while they'll snag a big pot from you, but more often than not, you get to showdown and can value bet with MPMK because you know that they've got ten-high at best even though they've capped every street. I turned a losing session into a HUGE winning session today by identifying and taunting one such player.

Ok, so that is a little of-topic as a maniac is not really the same as a donk at all. As we've gone over before, the games that you are in, the majority of the players love to play suited garbage. Keep that in mind. You should be able to cash in on missed draws and really have a field day when they cap the river with an 8 high flush when you've got suited paint or a boat. In this particular hand, there was absolutely nothing you could do. Keep in mind that variance has no memory. You can get sucked out on 10 times in a row --puke-- because each hand is independent of eachother. Statistically, that probably won't happen but you get my drift.

Wow, long post and i'm not sure I really even said anything useful. Just wanted to let you know that I have been there recently and that things always turn around given time. I think you and I are at a similar level as far as our understanding of limit hold-em goes, so hopefully we can help eachother out through the downswings. Thank the heavens we have this awesome forum to improve our game and to vent once in a while.

[Schlepper333]

Well said, Damien. Good moral support. We need that as much as help with our hands.