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OgreMkV
Joined: 29 Jul 2005
Posts: 893
Location: Port Arthur, TX
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 Posted: Tue Mar 27, 2007 7:00 pm Post subject: Research Project on probability. ITH data requested |
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'm doing a little research project.
The project is to confirm the validity of the combinatorics method of computing the probability of a getting a given hand (in this case straights and flushes). Combinatorics gives the probability of a straight in Texas hold 'em as 1 in 10,200 or .39%. The flush is 1 in 5,108 or .19%
I would like to get as many hands as possible to provide a large sample size. I personally believe that half a million hands is not out of reach for this project.. more is, of course, better. I'll be running the chi-squared tests and a few others to see if there are significant variances from what the 'standard' probability for these hands are.
I am asking that Texas Hold'em players give me
Total number of hands played
total number of straights received
total number of flushes received
total number of straight flushes received
total number of royal flushes received
No other information is required or even requested.
If you are interested, you can send me the info via e-mail, pm, or in this thread. If you have poker tracker, it should take but a few minutes to ferret out the info.
Thanks everyone
Kevin (OgreMkV) |
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markrounder7282
1K Club
Joined: 18 Oct 2005
Posts: 1221
Location: La Crosse, WI
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| Posted: Tue Mar 27, 2007 8:30 pm Post subject: |
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my stats from tournaments:
54,529 hands
Straights - 346 or 0.64%
Flushes - 283 or 0.52%
straight flushes - 3 or .006%
Royal Flushes - 2 or .004% |
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Willem
2K Club
Joined: 16 Sep 2006
Posts: 2652
Location: Netherlands
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| Posted: Thu Mar 29, 2007 3:20 am Post subject: |
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23704 hands:
134 straits: (0.56%)
141 flushes: (0.59%)
1 strait-flush: (0.004%)
0 royal flushes: (0%) |
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toronexti
53o
Joined: 03 Sep 2004
Posts: 4171
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| Posted: Thu Mar 29, 2007 7:53 pm Post subject: |
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I've got a few different DB's so I'll just do it for each one.
1st DB: 36,496 hands
Str8's: 534
Flush: 327
Str8 flush/Royal flush: 0/0
2nd DB: 40,827
Str8's: 897
Flush: 571
Str8 flush/Royal flush: 3/0
3rd DB: 78,549 hands
Str8's: 969
Flushes: 667
Str8 flush/Royal flush: 4/1
Tournament DB1: 18,517 hands
Str8: 68
Flush: 56
Str8 flush/Royal Flush: 0/1
Tournament DB2: 65,477
Str8: 308
Flush: 233
Str8 flush/Royale Flush: 1/0
EDITED IN:
Tournament DB3: 39,894 hands
Str8s: 245
Flush: 184
Str8 flush/ Royal Flush: 3/0
Last edited by toronexti on Fri Mar 30, 2007 2:12 am; edited 1 time in total |
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OgreMkV
Joined: 29 Jul 2005
Posts: 893
Location: Port Arthur, TX
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| Posted: Thu Mar 29, 2007 8:15 pm Post subject: |
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| Keep 'em coming guys. With 300,000 hands, the stats are waaaay off the expected values. If a few of the internet pros would hop in, I think we could get well over 1 or 2 million hands worth of data. |
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krazytxan
Texas Matriarch
Joined: 26 May 2004
Posts: 4578
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| Posted: Thu Mar 29, 2007 8:16 pm Post subject: |
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If you could tell us exactly how we get what you want off of PT, it might help.
KT |
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osmosis21
SuperDuperNova
Joined: 22 Jan 2004
Posts: 1883
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| Posted: Thu Mar 29, 2007 10:23 pm Post subject: |
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I lost most of my data in an ugly computer accident....but here is from this year.....
180 843 hands
straight 979
flush 865
straight flush 7
royal flush 1
Looking at the others stats I think Im running bad....  |
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Misunderstud
1K Club
Joined: 10 Jan 2006
Posts: 1666
Location: Here, stupid
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| Posted: Sun Apr 22, 2007 5:05 pm Post subject: |
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| OgreMkV wrote: | | Keep 'em coming guys. With 300,000 hands, the stats are waaaay off the expected values. If a few of the internet pros would hop in, I think we could get well over 1 or 2 million hands worth of data. |
Aren't the stats you're getting here FINAL hands? If so, they don't include dealt hands which would have made flushes and straights if they hadn't been folded before showdown. A 50% VP$IP player is going to end up with many more flushes per 1,000 hands than one with a 10% VP$IP. |
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Bugsbunny
Wascally
Joined: 07 Apr 2004
Posts: 7630
Location: Drinking Carrot juice
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| Posted: Sun Apr 22, 2007 5:19 pm Post subject: |
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| Misunderstud wrote: | | OgreMkV wrote: | | Keep 'em coming guys. With 300,000 hands, the stats are waaaay off the expected values. If a few of the internet pros would hop in, I think we could get well over 1 or 2 million hands worth of data. |
Aren't the stats you're getting here FINAL hands? If so, they don't include dealt hands which would have made flushes and straights if they hadn't been folded before showdown. A 50% VP$IP player is going to end up with many more flushes per 1,000 hands than one with a 10% VP$IP. |
This is a huge point. What, exactly, are you trying to figure out - and how are you planning on going about it? If you're saying that the results are off I'd say that your methodology may well be in error.
Combinatorics will give you the same expected probabilities as using any other method of calculating them. |
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AlamedaMike
2K Club
Joined: 29 Jun 2005
Posts: 2042
Location: Alameda, CA
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| Posted: Fri Apr 27, 2007 10:21 am Post subject: |
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Pokerstars only gives the hands that I played to SD so the numbers might be off -
1,381 hands to SD,
Straight - 97, 7.02%
Flush - 84, 6.08%
Sflush 4, 0.29%
No Royal
15,174 hands dealt.
I will now look at my old Party Poker 34,794 hands recorded (SD 4,004 times).
S- 1,210 - 3.48 %,
F-822, 2.36 %
SF - 8, 0.02%
Went to SD with these
S- 301, F - 309, SF - 0
I remember getting one Royal at party when I got 10,000 hands - I will look for that database - it was 8,000 hands.
Full Tilt Poker - 15,965 hands
S - 457, 2.86%
F - 266, 1.67%
SF - 3, 0.02%
RF - 1, 0.01%
It seems to be 2-3% with any two cards and 6% when you flop 4 to a flush - 
Last edited by AlamedaMike on Fri Apr 27, 2007 10:54 am; edited 2 times in total |
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AlamedaMike
2K Club
Joined: 29 Jun 2005
Posts: 2042
Location: Alameda, CA
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| Posted: Fri Apr 27, 2007 10:29 am Post subject: |
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| Bugsbunny wrote: | | Misunderstud wrote: | | OgreMkV wrote: | | Keep 'em coming guys. With 300,000 hands, the stats are waaaay off the expected values. If a few of the internet pros would hop in, I think we could get well over 1 or 2 million hands worth of data. |
Aren't the stats you're getting here FINAL hands? If so, they don't include dealt hands which would have made flushes and straights if they hadn't been folded before showdown. A 50% VP$IP player is going to end up with many more flushes per 1,000 hands than one with a 10% VP$IP. |
This is a huge point. What, exactly, are you trying to figure out - and how are you planning on going about it? If you're saying that the results are off I'd say that your methodology may well be in error.
Combinatorics will give you the same expected probabilities as using any other method of calculating them. |
Party Poker gives you the result of the hand even if you did not play it to completion - There is a mathimatical expectation of getting a hand, like a flush, I would expect the 15-1 to hold up but if you look at mine it is 42-1 for a flush from party. This is a small sample. So, with small smaples we can not really expect to make a flush the 15-1  |
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chrisjp
Mr. Lovable
Joined: 03 Jun 2004
Posts: 5009
Location: Round Rock, TX and Las Vegas
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| Posted: Fri Apr 27, 2007 10:34 am Post subject: |
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No stats sorry. Too into live game style. But heed what Misunderstud and Bugs say.
GL!
Chris |
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Misunderstud
1K Club
Joined: 10 Jan 2006
Posts: 1666
Location: Here, stupid
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| Posted: Fri Apr 27, 2007 10:49 am Post subject: |
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| AlamedaMike wrote: | | Party Poker gives you the result of the hand even if you did not play it to completion - There is a mathimatical expectation of getting a hand, like a flush, I would expect the 15-1 to hold up but if you look at mine it is 42-1 for a flush from party. This is a small sample. So, with small smaples we can not really expect to make a flush the 15-1 |
So, under your Misc. Stats tab for Party hands, your WTSD figure is lower than your number of times figure, yes? I didn't realize this was dependent on the HHs; I'd assumed it was part of the PT software. |
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AlamedaMike
2K Club
Joined: 29 Jun 2005
Posts: 2042
Location: Alameda, CA
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| Posted: Fri Apr 27, 2007 10:56 am Post subject: |
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| Misunderstud wrote: | | AlamedaMike wrote: | | Party Poker gives you the result of the hand even if you did not play it to completion - There is a mathimatical expectation of getting a hand, like a flush, I would expect the 15-1 to hold up but if you look at mine it is 42-1 for a flush from party. This is a small sample. So, with small smaples we can not really expect to make a flush the 15-1 |
So, under your Misc. Stats tab for Party hands, your WTSD figure is lower than your number of times figure, yes? I didn't realize this was dependent on the HHs; I'd assumed it was part of the PT software. |
Yes, Pokerstars complained and PT changed it so now I get only hands played - I looked at my old stats and it gave total hands dealt.
So, any 2 cards will flush 2-3% of the time and a 4 flush will hit 6%- cool. |
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