Rant - just me complaining at the wind for blowing.

[AlamedaMike]

Bad beats happen - Everyone is unlucky - this hand happens all the time - or does it? I handled it okay even though it did pissed me off.

This hand happens a lot -

Well, not so. I have to be dealt a suited ace in the blinds - long odds. Then the UTG needs to be dealt a pocket pair with one of my suit > J. Then I need to flop a flush - Ace high - 118-1. The he hits is pair and pairs the river.

By now we can see that the probability of this hand happening in this manner - I get a suited Ace, he get a pair, I flop a flush, then 3% he hits is two outer and hit a pair on the river makes it for a very rare hand, I think.

These hands burn themselves into your brain at the time and linger for awhile - soon to be forgotten. The sooner the better, just move on to the next hand.

Stange how they seem to come in groups. Not really 3 in a 100. More like 1 in a million. But, first you both need to flop something.

Full Tilt 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: ITH Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with , .
UTG raises, 5 folds, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG caps, Hero calls.

Flop: (11.50 SB) , , (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls.

River: (14.75 BB) (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 16.75 BB

Results in white below:
UTG has Qs Qd (full house, queens full of twos).
Hero has 9d Ad (flush, ace high).
Outcome: UTG wins 16.75 BB.

I have figured out why I can not win long term above the level that I am suppose to win.

It goes like this I think.

Say that over the long haul you can find 18% of the hands playable. You win 51%. The rest are losers. Some are in the blinds and some not.

If you play all your hands mistake free then you have a chance to win a small amount. What every is right for that mix of hands.

You will have nice runs where the cards fall your way and you need to maximize the amount won to ofset the time you will have the best of it and lose (reverse running bad - you are running good - what goes up, goes down).

Nature of the game. Limit is a game of small edges over a long run of cards.

Any time on tilt takes away from your long term wins. Bad beats also take away from your long term wins. They are supposed to happen and they do. Not much you can do but play your best.

Mike Caro's loose wiring says it best. One time a player will 3-bet and you fold when if he had just called you would have called and won, etc.

Small decisions and luck make such a huge difference in the outcome of the game.

It comes down to how well you play against a certain line up. You have to find players that you can beat and stay away from players that can beat you - luck or no luck, skill or no skill.

Nature of the game.

If you play a few hand poorly you will lose or not win what you could win. if you have a huge edge (they are idiots) then you can play more hands pooly - if they are not idiots then you had better play all your hand correctly.

It is precentages - there are just not enough hands that are winners to offset any mistakes.

I still make mistakes.

[AlamedaMike]

Another 32% that raised me and got there.

Full Tilt 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: ITH Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with , .
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) , , (7 players)
Hero bets, BB folds, UTG folds, MP1 calls, MP3 raises, CO folds, Hero 3-bets, MP1 folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (7 BB) (3 players)
Hero bets, MP3 raises, Hero folds.

[Pentahouve]

If it makes you feel any better: I would have lost one more bet on the river in the first hand but then I'm playing mainly 6max and there are some crazy players out there. I wouldn't have liked the paired board but would have bet. Mind I don't know how tight the guy was so maybe it was easy to put him on a set. I've come across people raise/capping ATo from utg (though this is btn -3 rather than btn-5) recently.

[AlamedaMike]

[Pentahouve]

True, I saw a guy on 1/2 6max LHE on Stars yesterday bluff check raise the river when a scare card came, be 3 bet by the other player who had shown great strength throughout the hand, and then still call......he did it twice, once with Ten high. needless to say I stuck around while he tilted his money away.

[AlamedaMike]

I love those guys - a player next to me just gave me his money. Too bad there are not that many of them.

[AlamedaMike]

I'm still losing - I need to quit for a few weeks or months.

[AlamedaMike]

[AlamedaMike]

Vent and rant is a great place to let it out

Does the word variance come to mind? 148 sessions and 10,000 hands dealt.

[AlamedaMike]

I went on vacation for just over 3 weeks. I came back and after a days rest started to play online poker again. I can not hit a damn thing. I either I win a small pot or I lose a big pot.

They fold when I have them crushed and they call/raise me when they have me crushed. Seems backwards to a winning strategy to me.

I need to review the basics again I guess. I lost 50 bb in two days on 1/2 LHE tables. No winning sessions at all. Straight down like a rock. I was climbing out of the dump and now back in it again.

VP$IP 19%. PFR 7.6%. STDEV 7.3 bb.

Maybe I am not as alert as I think I am - maybe I am still jet lagged.

Variance.