Push/fold this river?

[taz115]

I rarely play NL cash but I played a bit this weekend. Is this a good spot for a bluff I don't think either player has a flush here and a push from me would really look like a flush but it is into 2 players.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $70.55
UTG+1: $153.45
Hero: $114.55
Button: $106.40
SB: $99
BB: $198.20

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $3, Hero calls, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: ($10.5, 3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($10.5, 3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, Button bets $8, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

River: ($34.5, 3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, Button bets $24, UTG+1 calls, Hero ???

[Soultwister]

I do not really like bluffing the river because of the flop play, but don't hate it either if the player is quite bad, who will see the river raise as 'oh, he must have hit the flush'. Should you bluff the river, I'd like slightly larger stacks and the correct type of player to make this move against.

The problem I see here is that you cannot represent the flush here at all since I think it's almost totally unbelievable that you would check a flushdraw (which will either have two overcards here or some kind of gutshot included at the least) on the flop after the initial PFR checks into the field.

If you had bet the flop, checked the turn behind (or called turn lead) and shoved the river, I'd like it, but not in this spot.

[blah730235]

Since we have no reads here i'm just going to assume that a good majority of the players at .50/1 are decent players. So more often than not unkowns at these levels are making sound desisions.

UTG+1 probably has a tighter raise range since he's EP yet he doesn't follow through on the flop into two players. We would excpet pocket 10's+ to cbet on a drawy flop to protect their hand. Then villan checks/call's the turn I would put UTG+1 on pretty much KQ, AK, or a Kx/Ax high flush draw. Ace comes down on the river elimantating part of that range then villan check/call's again on the river meaning he almost never has a flush, his line screams AK, KQ to me and he's trying to get a cheap showdown. Even if my range here is off he's played this hand so meakly that I think we have tons of fold equity if we push.

Button is the one whom has he worried, button bets the turn and then bets again on the river when he had the option of a free showdown. He wants more money in the pot or you out of the hand. Which pretty much polarizes his range to either bluff or flush. If he had a pair would he not have checked behind on the river for the free showdown? Even a set here I think would check behind after the flush hits here. The thing that makes me think he's good is if he had bluffed the turn and then saw both of you call wouldn't he give up trying to bluff on the river? If I were bluffing in this spot I would continue with the bluff on the river only if one you guys had called me not if both of you had as. So I think he has the flush here way to often and I don't think he's laying it down a weak flush to a push because of the points soultwister brought up.

So I'm folding on the river.

[taz115]

I was playing mainly for entertainment purposes and I thought no way either of these guys had a flush especially UTG+1 so I shoved. I thought my line looked enough like a big draw (other than the fact that I didn'y bet the river - but I didn't think about that). I only considered bluffing after the big bet on the river and the call from UTG+1.

I shoved and they both folded pretty quickly, I didn't know if it was a good spot or a dumb one though.

I also played some 2/4 and did alright, I'm not sure if I'm good enough to win at that level though. I definately have a few NL leaks.

[janeg]

You'd need to win this about 56% of the time to be +EV, against 2 players I would think that's very unlikely; especially given the action.

[taz115]

I also figured if I was them and saw me push I'd definatelyt give credit for the flush, I had not played stupidly up to this point. I figured I'd fold a set if I was them.

Maybe I should have posted the hand another way, where we are the BTN and we have middle set, wouldd you fold to the river push?

I'm 90% sure that UTG+1 is going to fold here he looks like like a big pair (maybe 2 w/ AK)

[janeg]

[taz115]

[toronexti]

bet the flop all day.

As played button should be calling you all day . . . just cause a FD doesn't check twice on flop+turn. Though I feel like BTN only has KQ here so u prob just caught them both on very weak hands. I'm not really sure what UTG+1 has outside of a really badly AK.

[taz115]

[toronexti]

[emmapeel]

I once tried something similar by pushing on the river to rep a flush after a lot of weak betting. Both villains called with the nut flush and 2nd nut flush.

UTG has played a bit odd. I'm not sure what hand he might have. Button might be just value betting KQ on the river but I suppose a set is possible too.

I think I'm going to fold though. Button didn't mind betting into a possible flush when both opponents played like they might have that kind of draw. KQ would probably check then. Button may have a big hand or a flush himself therefore.

The bluff certainly looks good but it is a little complicated for me to work out. I think I'm folding as button might have something big here.

EP

[emmapeel]

I like the idea of bluffing the flop with the draw. I can't always do that with a set or similar big hand so it's good for varying the plays.

Would a typical villain be thinking this way though? I would think a typical villain would see a lot of check-calls followed by a big bet as a more likely flush, if villain is even looking at that at all that is. I wouldn't think that the push-bluff on the river would look suspect to a typical villain and he would see it as a likely flush.

Concerning the stat given by Toro of UTG calling a bet on the flop only about 5% of the time. Is this a stat worked out by software or by experience? Thx.

EP

[toronexti]