Pot Equity

[MtnWalker]

I'm a bit new here, and I hope this hasn't already been covered ad nauseum...

A lot has been written and discussed regarding pot equity odds for various hands. Exhaustive tables exist, etc., and many sets of recommendations for starting hands and subsequent play lean heavily on this notion of pot equity. However-

Much of the material is based on equity odds for a particular hand versus other RANDOM hands in a large sample. And this is where my issue comes in. In a poker game, few players are playing randomly. In other words, when one chooses to bet, say, 98 suited under certain conditions, his opposition have SELECTIVELY chosen to call or raise. Their non-random choices bias the possible outcome away from whatever might be in a random table somewhere; and from the 98s player's standpoint, the bias is always negative with respect to his possible outcomes.

I don't see how any general treatment can adequately address this concern. The random tables are easily generated and explained, but specific instances in real world play, it seems to me, are something else entirely. I could be all wet on this. Or maybe in the very long run, it all evens out. Any learned help out there?

[the_hawk]

Have you come across Poker Stove? It's a very useful free tool that allows you to calculate equity shares for specific hands and/or hand ranges against each other.

It's of most obvious use when you're talking about all-in situations in no-limit, since it essentially gives you "7-card equity" calculations (it will average calculations over the ranges of unknown board cards to come) but can be of help in other scenarios as well. So rather than stipulating a random hand for villain(s) you can put them on a specific range and see how you're likely to shape up equity-wise. It has its limitations but is very handy sometimes.

The ITH holdem calculator will do some of the same stuff as well

[MtnWalker]

Thanks, the_hawk. I should become more familiar wit availaable tools, and I will.

Part of my problem is that I don't know how to clearly state the problem, to a tool or a person. Example:

I am playing LLH and pick up 98 suited in late-middle position at a "typical" full ring game table. Two players limp in, and there are 4 behind me yet to act. It's probably fair to assume that those already in the pot, and any yet to come in, won't be acting randomly. So, how do I simulate these conditions and compare the a-priori equity of 98s against 2-6 players playing *non-random* hands over a typical range of values for the stated conditions? A general equity table does not (I think) do this.

[rayrns]

Lets say you just sat down at the table and have no reads on any of the players. Lets give the players that have limped in a range of hands that EP players would likely use::AKs-A2s, KQs, KJs, QJs, AKo-AJo and pairs 88 - 22. We are going to use that range for both of the limpers. This is probably a high range because most would raise with AKs, AQs, AKo. We know you limped in with 9s8s and the blinds are both random hands. You have to forget about the players behind you as you have no information that they will limp in also. So just forget them for now.

With this information plugged into Poker Stove, you have a 23% pot equity in this hand and roughly tied with the 2 limpers.

Now if someone calls from behind, you would have to put them on a range of hands and run it through Poker Stove again. Of course you can't do this while playing so you just have to have a "feel" for what hands you can play pre-flop against multiple players vs the hands you would play against fewer players. Also depends on the position of the players. Most of the time players that enter the pot early will have stronger starting hands than those who come in behind.

The benefit of Poker Stove is you can set up different scenarios and see how different starting hands will play against multiple or one or two players.

Hope I didn't confuse you more.

Ray

[MtnWalker]

No, your response was clear. I think my next step is to become more familiar with the tool, run some simulations and do some more thinking.

[PauliF]

forget about preflop pot equity questions for now
get a good book which has a starting hands chart
the one in Matts first book is ideal
follow it religiously and then concentrate hard on your post flop skills
come back and revise your understanding of preflop concepts in say 20 or 30k hands time
good luck

[taz115]

Determining the pot equity of 98s in your example does not have much value unless your planning on seeing the showdown no matter what. As hawk said, this type of analysis is much more useful for analyzing allin situations.

Starting hand charts like ITH’s do not come up with recommendations based on the pot equity against random hands. They have been put together after determining the profitability of actual hands played many times. They are much more dependent on the implied odds when your drawing hand hits rather than how much equity you have against certain groups of hands or random hands.

I hope that helps, I agree with Paulie, the best thing to do is not try and reinvent the wheel yourself. Pro’s like Sklanksy and Matthew have played their whole lives, done analysis and come up with recommendations. I am happy to use their hard work as my foundation and make adjustments as I learn the game going forward.

When I started out I used Matt’s charts to the letter. Now I adapt my starting hand charts depending on ‘who’ is in the pot and the many other conditions that go along with it. And although my adjustments have me not following the charts exactly, I am still pretty close when playing full ring (which I rarely play anymore).

Tools like pokerstove and the odds calculator are good tools to increase your understanding though. Although I have never used them, I can see that guys like hawk and fep understand some concepts very well from doing their simulations.

Good-luck!