Joined: 08 Oct 2005 Posts: 8383 Location: Edmonton, Canada
Posted: Mon Sep 22, 2008 11:43 am Post subject: Pointspread sportsbetting question
I've made a few small bets this football season just to make things interesting. I was wondering why my book (maybe all books?) move the price on the point spread instead of moving the spread itself.
Example:
Away team: +9 : -126
Home Team: -9 : +118
Obviously the book is trying to sway $ to the Home side. But is this not an indication that the spread may need to be adjusted? So far (I've only made 6 bets) I've mostly avoided games where the lines are a ways off even but maybe they represent an opportunity?
Would it be a ridiculous idea to take whatever team is laying odds when the line gets a ways off even?
I have been informed this looked a bit like me scolding Taz. NOT MY INTENT! Taz is my friend and I am in his debt for a good number of favors he has done me. I just thought he might be looking for a broader array of opinions on his question.
Joined: 07 Apr 2004 Posts: 7617 Location: Drinking Carrot juice
Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 11:13 pm Post subject:
What I suspect is that they move the price first to try and even out the money coming in. If that doesn't work then they'll move the spread itself.
They'd much rather have a balanced dollar amount with the same point spread, even at slightly different odds, since that way it's a guaranteed win for them no matter who actually wins the game (unless it's a push).
As soon as they move the spread they run the risk of losing money an a given game depending since the bets that come in may end up creating a middle situation. This is true even with a move of half a point, sonce they may get a push on the whole number but have to pay out too much on the half point number.
Example: Team A is favored over B by 5 points.
Money coming in: Team A: 200K, Team B 100K
Line moves to 5 1/2 points to try and balance out the money (always the prime objective for the book). It works. They now get an additional amount of 100K on team A and 200K on team B.
Team A wins by exactly 5 points. Those bets are a push. The 5 1/2 point bets they collect on 100K + vig, so about 105K but have to pay out 200K.
If they could have balanced the action by adjusting the price so they ended up with 300K each way the it's either a push and they lose some overhead in processing the bets (minimal for 1 game of many) or, no matter which team wins, they collect vig on 300K worth of bets. The amount they collect may be smaller because of the price change, but they still collect. Guaranteed profit is the name of the game for them.
When I used to bet I'd wait until the very last minute to place my bets, since spread movement was a big factor in my selection process. Especially dramatic game day movements indicating a popular consensus. The popular consensus usually proved wrong. (there were other things I looked at as well, but the spread movement was the final deciding factor on if it was a play or not).
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