Pocket kings and an ace comes on the flop

[Igor9000]

You raise pre flop with K,K and get three callers. An ace and two rags come on the flop. What % of the time will none of the callers have an ace? My guess is that about 75% of the time one of callers has an ace. Does Mathew`s new book cover this and related situations?

[ResumeMan]

Oh come on, it's at least 90%

But seriously, I don't think your question can be answered in the way you want. You can calculate the chance that one or more of three players at the table was dealt one of the three remaining aces, but whether one or more of the three players who called preflop has an ace is dependent on the way that those players play (tight or "any ace will do"?), what their position was (i.e. did they limp/call or cold-call? were they in a blind?) and those questions don't have solid statistical answers.

So lacking that I say go with 90%

[seanof30306]

[Alekhine11]

lol

Defenetely I am with seanof.

[Musicca]

The answer to that question is dependant upon the number of overall players in the hand. I found these odds while roaming the net.....

Ace on flop, chance that someone has an A down

5 players
>2 to 1

4 players
< 2 to 1

3 players
3 to 1

[Igor9000]

Thanks for the replies, guys. Musicca, I see what you mean by totat number of players in the hand. Lets try a different situation. All ten players see the flop of ace, rag. rag. You have pocket kings. What % of the time does someone have an ace? I was thinking that with the 20 player cards and the 5 on the board, approximately 50% of the time there will be two aces out there between the players and the board. Another 25% there will be 3 or 4 aces between the players and the board. So I would quess that 75% of the time someone would have an ace. 25% of the time the 3 aces would be in 27 cards not used,

[taz115]

Igor, in your last example your analogy works if everyone sees every flop.

The reason you do not want to calculate the probability that some has an Ace by fisguring out how likely it is they hold one is because that assumes that they have a random hand. But players seeing a flop do not have random hands. They fold, 73o, J2s, ect. Depending on the players, game type ect. players are more likely to see a flop while holding an ace. Therefore if you do a calculation saying there are 3 remaining aces, 4 unknow hole cards and then divide by the number of unknow cards in the deck... you'll almost always be underestimating the % of time someone holds an ace.