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iponnet22
Joined: 13 Mar 2006
Posts: 252
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 Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 12:16 am Post subject: pocket 22s do I have the right odds to play this! |
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ok in a FR 50NL table I was dealt 22's under the gun and I raised it to 1.5, player in MP raised it to 6 and another player on the button called.
so it became obviouse they both had pretty decent PPs 10s-KKs. was wondering if I should have called here? cause the flop came J102 and they both pushed one with QQs and the other with KKs!
obviously now that I know their cards it would have been a great idea to call these guys but how many people would call this regularly?
thanks |
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seanof30306
Joined: 29 May 2005
Posts: 77
Location: Tulsa, OK
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| Posted: Wed Jan 03, 2007 12:37 am Post subject: Re: pocket 22s do I have the right odds to play this! |
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| iponnet22 wrote: | ok in a FR 50NL table I was dealt 22's under the gun and I raised it to 1.5, player in MP raised it to 6 and another player on the button called.
so it became obviouse they both had pretty decent PPs 10s-KKs. was wondering if I should have called here? cause the flop came J102 and they both pushed one with QQs and the other with KKs!
obviously now that I know their cards it would have been a great idea to call these guys but how many people would call this regularly?
thanks |
Your odds of hitting a set with your pocket pair are 7.5:1.
In a cash game, I'd call and see a flop if the pot was offering me 4:1 or better. Many times, when I flop my set, I'll get no more money out of my opponents; others, they'll have an overpair to the board or flop top pair and pay me off big time. as long as I can get 4:1 on my money preflop, I'll take a shot and depend on implied pot odds to make it a profitable move.
In tournaments, the guy who mentored me advised using the 10% rule; if you can see a flop for less than 10% of your chipstack, do so. If it's going to cost more than that, fold. A small pocket pair is worthless after the flop unless you flop that set.
I'm grinding my teeth right now because two players just caled my 3x bb raise with AA in a 180 player SNG. The flop came 9 3 3. I bet out 3/4 pot, the loose/weak player behind me raised all in for half my stack, the next player, who had me covered, just called. I put him on a flush draw and shoved. He called with his 33 (the weak/loose player had 88). As disgusted as I am, in that situation, I would've played 33's hand exactly the same way. That's the power of making that set (or quads) with a small pair. You don't do it often, but when you do, no one can put you on it. Sets are silent killers.
I am kinda cringeing at a couple of things though. First, when you're under the gun, you have absolutely no information about what other players might have. If you never played anything but AA, KK, QQ, JJ and AKs from UTG and 2nd position, you'll make more money from those positions over your lifetime than you will playing more hands. More often than not, folding 22 from early position is the correct move. I'm not that disciplined, though. I'll usually try to limp small pocket pairs in from early position. If there's a raise behind me, I'll use the rules I described above to decide whether to call or not.
Which brings me to the other thing that bothers me. When you raise from early position with a hand lik 22, the only players that are going to call you are ones who can beat you. You're not an overwhelming favorite against ANY hand, and you raise your cost of seeing a flop, where you'll only make a likely winner 2 times in 17. With small pocket pairs, you want to see cheap flops. If you're going to raise, it should be when you're in position, and, when you do make that raise, it's completely unrelated to the cards you hold.
By the way, what's "FR"? |
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iponnet22
Joined: 13 Mar 2006
Posts: 252
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| Posted: Wed Jan 03, 2007 5:05 am Post subject: |
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thanks for the response, the way I figured is to limp/fold low pocket pairs even in late position because when you hit a set roughly about 1out of 8times on the flop and the PFR was 2dollars if you decide to call it at 50N, that means you have to get 16 dollars out of your opponent if you are playing heads up and unless he has AA/KK he is not likely to pay you off. especially when you limp and then call and then raise him big time on the turn/river with rags on the board and since most of us ITHs usually have a tight style of play most players at mid limit poker tables can figure this out and usually wont chuck out enough money with the pair for this to be profitable, and there is also always the risk of set over set with you losing you stack!!! on the other hand this makes me think for when I have a premium PP and someone limp calls my raise in early position it is probably a best idea to keep the money I am gona put in the pot until the river under 8x my raise-BB(the amount he paid to see flop) if I dont hit my set! this way he can call and suck out on me all he wants but it will never be a +EV for him?
do I have my math right on this? |
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seanof30306
Joined: 29 May 2005
Posts: 77
Location: Tulsa, OK
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| Posted: Wed Jan 03, 2007 5:54 am Post subject: |
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| iponnet22 wrote: | thanks for the response, the way I figured is to limp/fold low pocket pairs even in late position because when you hit a set roughly about 1out of 8times on the flop and the PFR was 2dollars if you decide to call it at 50N, that means you have to get 16 dollars out of your opponent if you are playing heads up and unless he has AA/KK he is not likely to pay you off. especially when you limp and then call and then raise him big time on the turn/river with rags on the board and since most of us ITHs usually have a tight style of play most players at mid limit poker tables can figure this out and usually wont chuck out enough money with the pair for this to be profitable, and there is also always the risk of set over set with you losing you stack!!! on the other hand this makes me think for when I have a premium PP and someone limp calls my raise in early position it is probably a best idea to keep the money I am gona put in the pot until the river under 8x my raise-BB(the amount he paid to see flop) if I dont hit my set! this way he can call and suck out on me all he wants but it will never be a +EV for him?
do I have my math right on this? |
There are a number of schools of thought on this. For me, in a no-limit game, 4:1 on my money is enough for me to call a raise with a small pocket pair. If there's no raise in front of me, I'll try to limp any low pocket pair. You have to remember that in a no-limit game, your implied pot odds are limited only by the size of your and your opponent(s)' stacks, and their stupidity.
Let's say there is PFR to 2.00. 3 other players call, so the pot is laying you 8:00 for a 2.00 call. The odds of your hitting your set are 7.5:1, so 1.07 of your call is justified, you're getting 7.5:1 odds on 1.07 (8.00 pot is laying you / 7.5:1 odds). That leaves .93 of your call unjustified. This is the shortfall you'll need to make up when you flop your set.
There's one thing to remember, though. 7.5:1 odds means you'll lose 7.5 hands for every 1 you win. You have to pay for the 7.5 hands you lost in the 1 you win. In this situation, what is already in the pot pays for the justified part of your call. What you're going to have to make up is the unjustified .93 shortfall in every one of those 7.5 hands you lose to the one you win, so you have to multiply the .93 shortfall by the 7.5:1 odds against to arrive at an accumulated shortfall of 6.98. That's how much you'll need to make up, not 16.00.
By the way, it'd be ok to round the 7.5:1 off to 8:1, so 1.00 of your 2.00 call is justified; 1.00 is not. That 1.00 unjustified shortfall multiplied by the 8:1 odds leaves you with an accumulated shortfall of 8.00, so, when you make your flush on the turn, all you need to do is get your opponent to pay off 8.00 to be at breakeven. Of course, this doesn't account for times when they fold after the flop, but, it also doesn't account for the times when they shove all-in. In the long run, you'll be profitable as long as you're aware of the shortfall and routinely make it up.
And sure, there are times when you'll run into set over set, flushes, straights, etc. Once you've mastered pot odds and implied pot odds, you can factor those occurrences in with EV, but, you've got to walk before you run. The point is, if you don't play anything but premium hands, you're going to find yourself sometimes getting busted by small pairs flopping sets. if you're not doing the same to your opponents when they have premium hands, you're giving them an edge and, more importantly, losing potential earnings.
And yes, this math applies towards your betting, too. When I'm the first raiser preflop, I raise at least 3 x bb, not TO 3xbb. Too small of a raise and you price people in. If the flop has two suited cards, I bet at least 3/4 pot; more if there are more players in. If there are flush and straight draws, I may overbet the pot.
This doesn't mean my opponents won't call me, it means I'm forcing them to make mathmatically incorrect decisions when they call. The purpose of this isn't so I have a moral victory, and can say "Sir, HOW can you call there?!?!?!. By pricing them out, I'm pricing myself in. I'll make enough money when they don't hit their draws so that I still make money when they do (as long as I make good decidsions after they do). |
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Alekhine11
Joined: 12 Apr 2006
Posts: 42
Location: London
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| Posted: Sat Jan 27, 2007 7:59 am Post subject: Re: pocket 22s do I have the right odds to play this! |
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By the way, what's "FR"?[
FR=Full Ring |
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TorrMakki
Joined: 21 Sep 2006
Posts: 50
Location: London, UK
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| Posted: Mon Jan 29, 2007 5:44 am Post subject: Re: pocket 22s do I have the right odds to play this! |
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| iponnet22 wrote: | ok in a FR 50NL table I was dealt 22's under the gun and I raised it to 1.5, player in MP raised it to 6 and another player on the button called.
so it became obviouse they both had pretty decent PPs 10s-KKs. was wondering if I should have called here? cause the flop came J102 and they both pushed one with QQs and the other with KKs!
obviously now that I know their cards it would have been a great idea to call these guys but how many people would call this regularly?
thanks |
It’s impossible to say since you leave out two crucial pieces of information:
1. The effective stack sizes
2. How likely the opponents are to pay you off
You rarely get the straight odds to call raises with low pocket pairs in no-limit. The standard raise and reraise amounts are designed with that sort of thing in mind.
The 5/10 rule suggests that if the amount you call is 5% of less than the effective stack then you definitely call. If the amount is more than 10% then you definitely fold and in between it’s a judgement call. This is for on opponent, clearly you can be looser against two – if your call finishes the action of course – since the implied odds are even better. |
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