PLO: Nut flush draw against two sets.

[Willem]

Poker Stars
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $10.35
UTG+1: $11.60
MP1: $26.45
MP2: $15.20
MP3: $1.80
CO: $9.50
Button: $8.85
SB: $4.40
Hero: $9.50

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is BB with
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, Hero checks.

Raising here will put my hand face up so I just call and hope to catch a good flop.

Flop: ($0.5, 5 players)
SB bets $0.5, Hero calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $2, CO folds, SB raises all-in $4.3, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

I initially only call to try and keep UTG+1 in. I have 8 outs to the nuts and an ace on the turn will also overtake any set/2pair without giving someone a strait. With just 10 outs, I want to keep people in I think. Now that UTG+1 raises pot and SB goes all-in, I think they must both have sets. Against two sets, my equity is 38% so I am correct to call assuming UTG+1 will tag along.

Turn: ($13.4, 2 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: $13.4)
Hero checks, UTG+1 is all-in $7.2, Hero calls all-in $5.1.
Uncalled bets: $2.1 returned to UTG+1.

Here, I need to call $5.10 to possibly win $18.50. So, I'm getting 1:3.6 to call. I think I have 8 clean outs (spades, no 3, an ace might also win but gives anyone with a JT a strait. With 8.5 outs, I need over 1:4 to call so I should have folded here.

River: ($23.6, 0 player + 3 all-in - Main pot: $13.4, Sidepot 1: $10.2)

Results:
Final pot: $23.6

[emmapeel]

I'm prolly folding the flop.

SB bet oop into 4 people so I reckon that having top 2 will be a minimum here. I think the odds are barely there to call even this hand and there will be three more people still to act. I don't think my hand is good enough here.

After the raising it looks clear that someone has a set and so the flush loses some value. The odds look something like 3-1 to call, assuming UTG calls too. Even with the 2 ace outs I don't think it is enough here.

The call on the turn is prolly ok as another ace should win and there are 8 outs to the nut flush. Looks about 4-1 to me. Very close though as an ace is not to the nuts.

EP

[emmapeel]

Isn't the pot $20.5 on the turn?

I also don't get 38% equity on the flop. I think it's the same 10 outs but with a redraw for the set on the river even if Hero hits. I don't think the odds are right for a flush draw to call a set here. It's around 4-1 to hit but only 3-1ish odds. There might be some implied odds if Hero hits and survives to the river but I think I still think it's a clear fold on the flop.

EP