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mchilger
ITH Founder and Poker Author
Joined: 30 Jun 2003
Posts: 5794
Location: Atlanta, Georgia
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 Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2008 10:49 am Post subject: Palin |
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Would McCain have chosen Palin if Obama had chosen Hillary?
If not, is that important or relevant? It seems to me that this would indicate that Palin was chosen more for political reasons than for her qualifications.
I hate "politicians". There are many things I like about McCain and many about Obama, but "politics" drives me crazy. I feel like Palin's choice was solely a political move that damages McCain's credibility a great deal. As a 72 year old man, to choose someone who may not be the best qualified solely as a political maneuver really worries me. I also don't quite understand how you can choose a potential future president of the United States after only having met her once.
Matthew |
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Cript
Cheesehead
Joined: 13 Feb 2004
Posts: 5067
Location: Milwaukee, WI
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| Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:08 am Post subject: |
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How many people will choose the president without ever having met them?
We all hate politicians...did he choose her for political reasons? Maybe, but if he's the best candidate and that's the only way to get the job, what can ya do? |
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Stew21
Joined: 03 Oct 2006
Posts: 988
Location: Orlando, Fl
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| Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:19 am Post subject: |
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Unfortunately, getting elected to office IS playing politics.
I've used that phrase more than once at more than one job.
Something tells me that I was neither the first or the last to do this.
Should McCain get elected,only time will tell if this was the right move. |
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nsidestrate
Suited's Love Monkey
Joined: 26 May 2004
Posts: 22390
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| Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:36 am Post subject: |
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Put another way, if McCain could pick anyone in the country to be President but himself, does anyone seriously think he would pick Sarah Palin? As a guy in his 70s with a history of health problems there has to be at least a 10% chance he is doing exactly that.
I'm sure she is a very nice lady, who reminds people of their neighbor, but clearly she would have essentially 0.0% chance of being elected President on the merits. One assumes that McCain felt that he needed to make some substantial change to the demographics to have a seroius chance and he believes that getting himself elected is more important than picking a well-qualified VP. Many of his supporters might agree. She does seem to have improved his poll numbers. |
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Cript
Cheesehead
Joined: 13 Feb 2004
Posts: 5067
Location: Milwaukee, WI
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| Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:43 am Post subject: |
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| nsidestrate wrote: | Put another way, if McCain could pick anyone in the country to be President but himself, does anyone seriously think he would pick Sarah Palin? As a guy in his 70s with a history of health problems there has to be at least a 10% chance he is doing exactly that.
I'm sure she is a very nice lady, who reminds people of their neighbor, but clearly she would have essentially 0.0% chance of being elected President on the merits. One assumes that McCain felt that he needed to make some substantial change to the demographics to have a seroius chance and he believes that getting himself elected is more important than picking a well-qualified VP. Many of his supporters might agree. She does seem to have improved his poll numbers. |
Tell me you want to get into the "percent chance of being elected just on their merits" discussion.
If that were the case, I think the dems would have a multiple term governor or something up for election. |
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nsidestrate
Suited's Love Monkey
Joined: 26 May 2004
Posts: 22390
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| Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:58 am Post subject: |
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| Cript wrote: | Tell me you want to get into the "percent chance of being elected just on their merits" discussion.
If that were the case, I think the dems would have a multiple term governor or something up for election. |
The evidence suggests that our candidate has a pretty good shot at getting elected on the merits. You'd have to acknowledge that it is at least over a 45% chance. Biden has been a Senator for 30-some years. |
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Cript
Cheesehead
Joined: 13 Feb 2004
Posts: 5067
Location: Milwaukee, WI
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| Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:06 pm Post subject: |
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| nsidestrate wrote: | | Cript wrote: | Tell me you want to get into the "percent chance of being elected just on their merits" discussion.
If that were the case, I think the dems would have a multiple term governor or something up for election. |
The evidence suggests that our candidate has a pretty good shot at getting elected on the merits. You'd have to acknowledge that it is at least over a 45% chance. Biden has been a Senator for 30-some years. |
How is Biden an agent of change then? He's had 30 years to change stuff.
At any rate, If you took Obama vs Every other Dem with no televised coverage...would he be the best candidate? |
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PauliF
Shoes in Safe
Joined: 16 Jun 2004
Posts: 2779
Location: London
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| Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:07 pm Post subject: |
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| nsidestrate wrote: | As a guy in his 70s with a history of health problems there has to be at least a 10% chance he is doing exactly that.
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easily more than that.....
plus add the stress of the job and chances of assiniation
there is no way of knowing as there no actuarial tables specific to US presidents who were POWs for 5 years and (as you say) a history of health problems
but over a five year term my guess who be 20% maybe even 25% |
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CroMagnon
1K Club
Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 1166
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| Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:21 pm Post subject: |
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I think he may have picked her regardless of who Obama chose. She was chosen to cement the far right as were his turn abouts on abortion and drilling in Anwar. He is proving to be an adept politician. No real change there.
Cro |
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nsidestrate
Suited's Love Monkey
Joined: 26 May 2004
Posts: 22390
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| Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:35 pm Post subject: |
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| Cript wrote: | | At any rate, If you took Obama vs Every other Dem with no televised coverage...would he be the best candidate? |
Its off-topic, so this will be my last on this. The distinction is that Democratic voters through a long established process selected him as our candidate. You might think we are idiots who chose poorly, but many millions of us choose him.
In the case of Palin, one person made that decision and it is very reasonable to infer things about that person based on that decision. I doubt that anyone thinks that he chose the person he finds best qualified to run the country in the event of his untimely demise. It suggests that for all his disdain for "politics as usual" and his status as a "maverick" that perhaps he is actually a fairly typical politician after all.
I think that when a guy who is in his 70s chooses a VP, you have to give a lot of thought to what kind of President that person would be. For instance, Reagan chose Bush, an old Washington hand who had been in Congress, Director of the CIA and Ambassador to the UN. |
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niin
ITH Software Programmer
Joined: 15 Jun 2004
Posts: 4485
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| Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2008 2:24 pm Post subject: |
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Reagan choose Bush pretty much primarily because he was CIA directory, and privy to a lot of info that nobody else knew. And Reagan knew what was coming with the USSR.
As for Palin, she really was being considered before Obama's pick... she was (according to media 'lists' before that time) on a fairly short list of picks. I'm not sure if she wouldn't have been picked had Hillary been Obama's VP.
I think the 'out of the blue' nature of the pick, though, makes it appear he was doing it in response to Biden being picked, but I really dont' know how much of that is speculation and how much of that is fact.
I'm not so sure Biden would get elected on merits, which is what the comparison should be. He did horribly in the primaries. |
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toom
Spelling Bee Champ
Joined: 06 Apr 2005
Posts: 2385
Location: Running for benevolent dictator next
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| Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:47 pm Post subject: |
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Of course the choice was political, and it was a wise choice politically. Whether it is acceptable for the nation is a separate debate. McCain had position, got to act last, and took advantage of Obama's passive play (oh, poker metaphors, how lame).
Had Obama picked HRC, I think McCain does not pick her; it seems like "me, too" playing.
I don't like politics playing such an important role in the future of the country, but I accept it, because the rhetoric, hypocrisy, fear-mongering, media manipulation, and grandstanding exists equally on both sides.
Oh, and don't write off the Obama/Clinton ticket yet. Biden's health may have deteriorated rapidly in the last two weeks. It's a case of Palinophobia. |
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darvon
BCS Neutral
Joined: 28 Feb 2004
Posts: 5314
Location: Detroit
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| Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2008 10:28 pm Post subject: |
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Would M choose P if O had chosen H? Probably not. McCain was choosing a candidate for VP, he picked to optimize a candidacy.
Would Palin be elected Prez on the merits? Not yet. The merits are getting the nomination and being elected. Nothing else.
Biden cant get elected on the merits, He has tried and failed. Palin hasn't tried, but without the VP nom, probably would never had even made a blip.
How come Dems are soooo bent out of shape by the Palin selection. If you are eating in a restaurant and order the Prime rib, what do you care about the side dish for the salmon?
You aren't voting for the R VP anyway. You don't get to pick our candidates. You have to choose your own to fit your taste.
Reagan picked Bush because he ran second in the primaries, just like Gore and Clinton.
It is reasonable for Dems to argue why McCain and Palin have the wrong policies to be elected, but not why they are a bad Republican candidate.
Do you Dems think McCain is a 'good' Republican candidate? That's sorta been what was wrong eith McCain all along. |
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mchilger
ITH Founder and Poker Author
Joined: 30 Jun 2003
Posts: 5794
Location: Atlanta, Georgia
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| Posted: Sat Sep 13, 2008 5:48 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | How come Dems are soooo bent out of shape by the Palin selection. |
just to clarify, I am on the fence with Obama slightly in front. Part of the reason I am leaning towards Obama is because I am having a hard time coming to terms with McCain's VP choice and was hoping this thread might help me understand the choice better.
To answer your question, there are basically two reasons. The first reason is that the VP, especially in McCain's case, has a decent chance at becoming President. I do think this is important if electing McCain. I would definitely feel much more secure with Biden as President than Palin.
Maybe more important, is that this makes me question his decision-making ability. As Nside says, for someone who campaigns of "change", a person of change must cross traditional political lines. If he is willing to choose a VP solely on the political merits, what else will he do in Washington solely for political reasons? When picking a VP candidate, shouldn't you be choosing your country first? When picking a VP candidate, the presidential candidate is basically choosing a future President without popular vote - how can you choose someone solely for political reasons? These questions really bother me and make me question McCain's judgment and true purpose.
Despite this, I was pleased with McCain's choice on the Republican ticket, but his choice for VP makes me question now whether he was the best choice.
In terms of politics, what I was trying to refer to is a certain line which I think has been crossed. It's one thing to ignore the good things your opposition has done, or even the bend the truth a little (I do feel like McCain's campaign is out of line on some of their attacks and claims), but I think it is entirely another thing when a 72 year old man chooses someone who could potentially be President of the US. Politics shouldn't have a bearing in that type of decision unless there are two candidates that are very close so you choose the one who would best serve you politically to get elected.
Matthew |
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mchilger
ITH Founder and Poker Author
Joined: 30 Jun 2003
Posts: 5794
Location: Atlanta, Georgia
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| Posted: Sat Sep 13, 2008 5:55 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | How many people will choose the president without ever having met them? |
There is obviously a big difference between my vote and McCain's selection. I just have one little vote. If that Costner movie was real life, and I was in Costner's shoes where my vote would actually pick the President and the entire country was relying on my choice, I would certainly go out of my way to get to know the candidates as best as possible. McCain has been in Washington for decades, has many personal relationships with numerous experienced politicians, and he chooses someone who he has only met once and who has governed 700,000 people for two years?
Matthew |
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