6364 three-suited is absolute garbage in PLO. If you hit your flush it's going to be a baby flush, a straight will be a baby straight, and a set of 6's is very vulnerable. Definitely, definitely fold PF.
Being on the button behind 3 limpers is still not a good enough reason to play that kind of hand. PLO isn't like NLHE, where you can limp speculative hands and easily fold when you miss on the flop. More often than not you'll end up getting sucked in with very marginal cards and losing big pots.
As played the major concern is probably Smurf rather than Lee Nelson. It looks like Nelson is trying to thin the field on the flop since there is no flush draw to worry about, so I'd probably put him on some combination of paint cards with an Ace (maybe AQT9, or something of that nature). I don't see him making such a big raise with AA or JJ, and he probably would have raised PF with combos including those hands.
But Smurf flat calling the lead and raise on that flop is very, very concerning. There's no flush draw, so you have to be concerned there about a big Broadway draw or higher set. When he calls Nelson's big turn lead I'd have to assume my set of 6's are beaten there. I think I'd save my chips and wait for a better spot.
Joined: 28 Feb 2005 Posts: 559 Location: Former Absolute Baddest Beater
Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:53 am Post subject:
Our thinking was similar, but not accurate:
*** TURN *** [6h Ad Js] [7h]
LeeNelsonP*: bets 2100
Smurf_Fla: calls 2100
clabbers: folds
*** RIVER *** [6h Ad Js 7h] [7s]
LeeNelsonP*: checks
Smurf_Fla: bets 2060
LeeNelsonP*: calls 2060
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Smurf_Fla: shows [Td 9c Qc Kc] (a pair of Sevens)
LeeNelsonP*: shows [8s Jh 3c Ac] (two pair, Aces and Jacks)
LeeNelsonP* collected 10210 from side pot
redrooski24: mucks hand
LeeNelsonP* collected 315 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 10525 Main pot 315. Side pot 10210. | Rake 0
Board [6h Ad Js 7h 7s]
Seat 1: clabbers folded on the Turn
Seat 2: redrooski24 (button) mucked [Qh 2c Qs Jd]
Seat 3: alex987 (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 4: Roland62 (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 5: jimbomber folded on the Flop
Seat 6: LeeNelsonP* showed [8s Jh 3c Ac] and won (10525) with two pair, Aces and Jacks
Seat 7: BigFishNuts folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: BackDoorovic folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Smurf_Fla showed [Td 9c Qc Kc] and lost with a pair of Sevens
The broadway wrap doesn't really have a call, but by doing so shifted the pot from me to Lee.
Pretty bad for smurf to be calling that turn with 10 outs max. That's why I put her on a set and didn't include the Broadway draw in my analysis. But once she misses on the river and Nelson checks, she's in a good spot to represent the boat with a bet.
AJ is definitely in the range I figured for Nelson but I'm surprised that he'd play such a marginal hand OOP at a full table.
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