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Thread: NCAA Playoffs Sports Betting

  1. #1
    Moderator Bullajami's Avatar
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    NCAA Playoffs Sports Betting

    Logged into my 5Dimes account a few days ago and these were the futures lines for the NCAA football tourney:

    Alabama -160
    Oregon +163
    FSU +1000
    OSU +1000

    I placed equal bets on OSU and FSU, giving me half the field at 5:1 odds.

    The lines at the time of this posting are:

    Alabama +102
    Oregon +163
    FSU +865
    OSU +865

    Thoughts?
    Peace,
    Bull

    "Agree with Bull on this one..."
    - janeg
    August 10, 2011

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  3. #2
    I like FSU at +1000 or maybe even +865. I think the right number for OSU is probably like +2000. Both of the favorites are terrible lines.

  4. #3
    Moderator Bullajami's Avatar
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    4.76% chance for OSU to win it all? Given that OSU is being given a 25% chance (+300) of beating Alabama, that would put them at about 19% to beat the winner of ORE/FSU.

    If the team that showed up to play Wisconsin and MSU comes to the playoffs I like those odds. If it's the team that showed up to play Navy and Va Tech, you're probably being generous.
    Peace,
    Bull

    "Agree with Bull on this one..."
    - janeg
    August 10, 2011

  5. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Bullajami View Post
    4.76% chance for OSU to win it all? Given that OSU is being given a 25% chance (+300) of beating Alabama, that would put them at about 19% to beat the winner of ORE/FSU.

    If the team that showed up to play Wisconsin and MSU comes to the playoffs I like those odds. If it's the team that showed up to play Navy and Va Tech, you're probably being generous.
    The only time I actually saw them play was against Va Tech. Plus I like messing with you.

  6. #5
    Moderator Bullajami's Avatar
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    I watched the VA/VA Tech game from a poker table at Excalibur. I thought that backup QB for VA was going to be a hero, but it was not to be.

    This will be the first bet I've ever made on OSU that I remember. I frequently bet against them when they play good teams so that I have something to cheer about no matter what happens.

    Just logged in to see if the lines moved. Alabama is at +100, all other lines unchanged. I noticed that New England is +315 to win the Super Bowl. Did you want some of that?
    Last edited by Bullajami; 12-23-2014 at 09:59 PM.
    Peace,
    Bull

    "Agree with Bull on this one..."
    - janeg
    August 10, 2011

  7. #6
    Moderator Bullajami's Avatar
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    Checked the lines today:

    Alabama +110
    Oregon +160
    OSU +865
    FSU +1000

    The line on FSU at Bovada (Bodog) is +600. Strange things are afoot at the Circle K.
    Peace,
    Bull

    "Agree with Bull on this one..."
    - janeg
    August 10, 2011

  8. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Bullajami View Post
    Strange things are afoot at the Circle K.
    First thing I've understood in this thread.


  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Bullajami View Post
    Just logged in to see if the lines moved. Alabama is at +100, all other lines unchanged. I noticed that New England is +315 to win the Super Bowl. Did you want some of that?
    The problem is that you have to win three games to claim that and you're likely a dog in at least one of them. I'd be happier with +150 to win the AFC, but even that is probably a sucker bet. The vig in futures like this is so terrible, especially for favorites.

  10. #9
    Moderator Bullajami's Avatar
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    6 hours before kickoff and the lines are:
    ALA +108
    ORE +162
    FSU +800
    OSU +900

    I still like my bets on OSU and FSU at +1000. At least I got the best lines posted.

    Pats are listed at -133 to win the AFC. I wouldn't touch that bet with your money.
    Peace,
    Bull

    "Agree with Bull on this one..."
    - janeg
    August 10, 2011

  11. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Bullajami View Post
    I still like my bets on OSU and FSU at +1000. At least I got the best lines posted.
    +1000 on OSU looking damn good right now. They'd be like a 7 point dog to Oregon, right?

  12. #11
    Moderator Bullajami's Avatar
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    5dimes has them at -7

    -260 on Oregon. To hedge or not to hedge...

    I'll probably hedge. I like guaranteed money more than I like the odds of keeping Mariota off the field.
    Peace,
    Bull

    "Agree with Bull on this one..."
    - janeg
    August 10, 2011

  13. #12
    I'd probably at least partially hedge in your shoes. How does the hedge payout compare to what you'd have won on the ML straight up?

  14. #13
    Moderator Bullajami's Avatar
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    Line on ORE this morning was -220, so I played it as an arbitrage. I essentially had the Buckeyes at +500, so the payout on the arb was a little over 17%.

    I miss being able to do this routinely.

    (And for real money. Not even a comma in the total amount wagered. Love the game, though.)
    Last edited by Bullajami; 01-06-2015 at 05:35 AM.
    Peace,
    Bull

    "Agree with Bull on this one..."
    - janeg
    August 10, 2011

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