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Thread: Hedging startegy for Super Bowl

  1. #1
    Senior Member CroMagnon's Avatar
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    Hedging startegy for Super Bowl

    Beginning of the year a friend of mine went to Vegas and placed a $50 bet at 5-1 on the Seahawks winning the SB. Now that they have made it into the big game through a strange season and an even stranger NFCCG, I'm wondering if there are any hedge bets that might be worth placing. I'm unlikely to actually any such bet, but I know nothing about hedge bets and after reading Bulls story about the College playoffs I got curious.

    Really this is just a subtle way to be crowing about my team . What an amazing game.

    Cro

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  3. #2
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    I did tune in to the game a bit late to see them down by 12 (I think) - once they recovered the onside kick the rest seemed a formality until the late field goal tied it up.

    I have a question though - surely it always pays to have the first possession in OT, so has anyone ever done the opposite?
    To infirmity and beyond

  4. #3
    Senior Member CroMagnon's Avatar
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    I don't think I've ever seen it in OT. Hawks will always defer during regulation as there a defense centered team.

    Cro

  5. #4
    Given that the game is currently showing the Pats as a small favorite, it looks like you'd have to hedge at -115 or so.

    As it stands, you'd win $250 if the Hawks win and nothing if the Pats win. A full hedge would be to bet $133 on the Pats to win at -115 which would pay you $117 if the Hawks win and $116 if the Pats win, locking in a certain profit.

    You could also always do an unbalanced hedge, like just betting $60 on the Pats, so that you get your $50 back if they win and still book a $200 profit the other way.

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    Talking of the superbowl ......... what does it take to be considered cheating these days? If a team breaks a rule to give themselves a significant advantage then surely a fine is a little light?
    To infirmity and beyond

  7. #6
    Senior Member CroMagnon's Avatar
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    That is dead simple nside. For some reason I thought it would be trickier. Like I said I'm not likely to make such a bet. Too much fun to just win out right. That and I'm not anywhere near Vegas. If I were I'd be more likely to double down on the Hawks.

    Cro

  8. #7
    Senior Member CroMagnon's Avatar
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    Guess I should have hedged. What a brutal ending to a game. Congrats to nside and his pats.

    Cro (as in eating)

  9. #8
    Wow. A total emotional roller coaster. When Kearse caught that crazy juggling catch I just thought it was Tyree all over again. Crazy game, brutal ending for Hawks fans.

  10. #9
    Senior Member CroMagnon's Avatar
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    Tyree must be the Giants Helmet Catch? After Kearse's catch it was going to be a brutal ending for someone. It's been pretty fascinating reading all the "Worst call in history" talk. From Hawk fans they are looking at it through the lens of failure, I suppose everyone is to a degree, just without the personal pain attached. He makes the catch and Bevell/Carroll are geniuses, or at least gun slinging, steel balled risk takers. The Mathews catch at the end of the first half has all the earmarks of a huge opportunity for second guessing. But he caught the pass. He drops that and you hear, "Why would they throw to a guy that hasn't caught a pass all year and not take the field goal.

    For me, I get the thinking behind the choice. 26 seconds, 3 downs, one of them will be a pass to make sure you get every chance to get in the end zone. My problem is with "that" pass. Pats are stacked in the middle to stop Lynch. Don't throw the ball into the teeth of the defense. My call? Play action, roll our right, give Russell options to pass, run it or throw it away.

    Next year.

    Cro

  11. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by CroMagnon View Post
    Tyree must be the Giants Helmet Catch? After Kearse's catch it was going to be a brutal ending for someone. It's been pretty fascinating reading all the "Worst call in history" talk. From Hawk fans they are looking at it through the lens of failure, I suppose everyone is to a degree, just without the personal pain attached. He makes the catch and Bevell/Carroll are geniuses, or at least gun slinging, steel balled risk takers.
    Its really a one in a million deal. Those kind of passes are very rarely intercepted because the play develops so fast. A lot of things went perfectly for the Pats. Browner jammed Kearse on a play where his only job was to back Browner up enough to prevent Butler from taking the line he did. Butler got a ridiculous read on the play and got there way faster than he should have. Lockette never saw him coming and got bumped off the ball. If the ball just goes incomplete, no one has a thing to say about the play and we are all talking about either the stuff of Lynch on the next plays or the Kearse catch.

    The Mathews catch at the end of the first half has all the earmarks of a huge opportunity for second guessing. But he caught the pass. He drops that and you hear, "Why would they throw to a guy that hasn't caught a pass all year and not take the field goal.
    For the life of me, I cannot figure out what the hell Ryan was doing on that play. He knew it had to be a quick play and why he decided to set up 2 yards deep in the end zone is one of life's mysteries. Of course, if he isn't playing so badly all game, Butler is never on the field and maybe the Seahawks win. Its a funny game. But yes, that was a gutsy call. Its funny, when they first got the ball they looked like they weren't even going to try to drive it, but Turbin busted his first carry for like 18 yards and they decided to drive. I think they probably still have one second left if the pass misses, but maybe not.

    My call? Play action, roll our right, give Russell options to pass, run it or throw it away.
    I think they were worried about losing yardage and that is why they didn't go with some kind of option, but that play was something I was scared of. Wilson is so dangerous down there. Honestly, I don't understand why Wilson didn't run the ball a lot more. I think he should have held the ball and ran on the read option a couple more times than he did.

    I've rewatched the game a couple of times, it really was a classic that could so easily have turned out differently if any of a dozen plays had gone differently. I'm not sure that we wouldn't have had just as much success throwing on Lane, but it was certainly easier to face Simon. The Avril injury was also huge, since it really seemed like Bennett didn't get any pressure after he was out. You guys caught some bad breaks.

    I also have to say that I knew Wagner was good and that you guys got a lot better when he came back, but I wasn't prepared for just how much he does. You guys ask him to do a whole lot of work and he seemed to make nearly every tackle out there. He made one tackle where he was covering Vareen way outside the tackles to the right and he still ended up tackling Edelman almost across the whole width of the field. He might be the best MLB in the game right now.

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