Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 12:44 pm Post subject: Odds of being delt at least one A in 75 hands
I was recently on poker stars, and after playing 75 hands I noticed that I had not been delt a single Ace. I was wondering what the odds of that would be? Also what would be the odds of being delt a 2 or a 3 31 times in 75 hands?
The chances of not being dealt an ace in your next 75 hands (notice the wording; it's important) is:
[ (48/52) * (47/51) ] ** 75 = 5.4E-6, or about 185,000:1 against.
Given that there are thousands of players on Poker Stars at any one time you can pretty much guarantee that someone is on a run like that at any given time. This time it happened to be you.
I can't be bothered to work out the second one but suffice it to say that you would expect about 21.5 twos or threes in 75 hands, so getting 31 is somewhat unusual but hardly earth-shattering.
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