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AlamedaMike
2K Club
Joined: 29 Jun 2005
Posts: 2042
Location: Alameda, CA
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 Posted: Mon Mar 12, 2007 4:08 pm Post subject: Odds in general. |
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Most good players know the odds of hitting their hand using outs and there are so many books on the subject. What sometimes amazes me is that at the table in a live game some one will say - I had outs. That sometimes kicks off a short discussion of odds.
At least two/three times I have heard an argument where one player will quote the correct odds for such and such then another player (usually an older guy) will say that's not correct because | Quote: | | You do not know which cards are in the players hands and you can never know the true odds |
As I said, this amazes me to no end. I does not matter! But if the first player says that it is like talking to a donkey. I practice thou shall not teach at the table so I remain as quite as I can and just smile inside.
Say there are 10 players each dealt 2 cards, that is 20. Remove them form the deck. The burn and 3 flop cards, 4 more gone for 24 cards. That leaves 28 cards and 2 in his hand ~~~ 26 live cards.
So the dumb player want to consider how many cards are in the 26 unseen cards and since he can't know what cards are dead he can not figure the odds. Good for us, huh.
If you used his scheme then you would take your outs, say 9 and convert them to a ratio of dead cards or roughly 4.5 outs then use the live cards (26) and your converted outs (4.5) - it is strangely close to 9/38.  So the percentage of hitting one of your 4 or 5 cards in the remaining 26 is still about the same. If you consider that the cards are evenly split among the 52 to start with.
My math on this one sucks.
It is way more complicated than just using the full deck is my point and I think you get my point, here.
They might be right on this deal - some of your 9 outs might be in the players hands but over the long run it will even out. They fail to see that and that it to our advantage.
That is why when they say, 'I can prove it' I bite my tongue until it bleeds not to say anything.
Has anyone encounterd a strange guy like this. It has happend to me about 2-3 times.
Anyone disagree with what I said here? |
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the_hawk
Chelsea FTW!
Joined: 13 Jul 2005
Posts: 4340
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| Posted: Mon Mar 12, 2007 5:15 pm Post subject: Re: Odds in general. |
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| AlamedaMike wrote: | Has anyone encounterd a strange guy like this. It has happend to me about 2-3 times.
Anyone disagree with what I said here? |
This is an old chestnut that pops up on here reasonably frequently and often results in lively discussion. 
You basically have it right. Unless you have very specific reasons to suppose any of your outs might be tainted in this way (i.e., by being held in otherwise unknown hands) then the simple ratio of outs to definitely unknown cards is that you should use.
As a default position you essentially never make any assumptions about the cards in folded hands. You could certainly dream up scenarios where it might be plausible, but perhaps unsurprisingly the situations discussed around here rarely qualify, and I very much doubt it was the situation with your guys either. |
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AlamedaMike
2K Club
Joined: 29 Jun 2005
Posts: 2042
Location: Alameda, CA
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| Posted: Mon Mar 12, 2007 5:43 pm Post subject: |
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| Nah, he was just thinking about the 20 cards in other players hands. In fact, he pointed to the muck as he said it. Not bright enough to consider 7 outs if someone else is on a flush draw. |
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dhwma
Joined: 21 Jun 2004
Posts: 897
Location: MA
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| Posted: Mon Mar 12, 2007 5:47 pm Post subject: |
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In reverse, when I bet with a flush draw board it is nice to have a suit in hand affecting their odds....not clearly explaining it but it can help further manipulate the price charging them to draw.....
Overall, at least at the limits I play at, many people will draw and are just looking to justify their actions and care what others think therefore commenting.... |
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Bugsbunny
Wascally
Joined: 07 Apr 2004
Posts: 7626
Location: Drinking Carrot juice
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nsidestrate
Suited's Love Monkey
Joined: 26 May 2004
Posts: 22429
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| Posted: Mon Mar 12, 2007 6:51 pm Post subject: |
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| This is a major digression, but I think that sometimes we should adjust the odds because we know other people hold high cards. Most people who discuss this theory are idiots, however. |
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mchilger
ITH Founder and Poker Author
Joined: 30 Jun 2003
Posts: 5804
Location: Atlanta, Georgia
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| Posted: Mon Mar 12, 2007 6:59 pm Post subject: |
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Nside, theoretically you are correct, but I think the times when this would really change a decision is very rare to the point that I think it probably complicates the topic more than is worthwhile except for the very, very advanced player.
I hope that comment doesn't come across as one from an idiot
Matthew |
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the_hawk
Chelsea FTW!
Joined: 13 Jul 2005
Posts: 4340
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| Posted: Mon Mar 12, 2007 7:00 pm Post subject: |
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| nsidestrate wrote: | | This is a major digression, but I think that sometimes we should adjust the odds because we know other people hold high cards.. |
These are the "specific reasons" I was referring to above. I think one needs to be a little more specific than "others hold high cards". |
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the_hawk
Chelsea FTW!
Joined: 13 Jul 2005
Posts: 4340
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| Posted: Mon Mar 12, 2007 7:01 pm Post subject: |
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| mchilger wrote: | | I hope that comment doesn't come across as one from an idiot |
Why ever not? Don't you want to fit in around here?  |
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AlamedaMike
2K Club
Joined: 29 Jun 2005
Posts: 2042
Location: Alameda, CA
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| Posted: Tue Mar 13, 2007 12:06 am Post subject: |
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You explain it so much better than I do - thanks  we need this to be a sticky.
I put it in favorites so don't move it. |
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