Not Deep Enough

[ImBetterDude]

So since taking up a real job I haven't been playing nearly as much online poker as I used to. Today, however, I decided to stay home and play poker instead of work, and the first thing I did was join a 180 MTT and a 6 max MTT with 240 runners. I grinded away and got 12th in the 180 man when my A J < 99 Preflop. I was in the BB and was card dead for about a half hour, and was down to about 15 BB's. Someone in early raised it 3X the BB, I pushed over the top, and lost the race.

I cashed in the 6 max as well, finishing in 8th when my 88 < 10 J on a VERY questionable ALL IN call by the chip leader. Blinds were 800/1600, he had 75,000 and I had 25,000. I was in the BB with 88, he raised to 4,000, and I pushed over the top of him. He called instantly for 1/3 his stack at this CRUCIAL TIME OF THE GAME with 10 J. Sure as shit he hit a 10 on the flop and it was all over. To make things even more WTFish I had a very solid image and was a couple bad breaks away from having a monster stack, which everyone at this table was keenly aware of. Ironically enough 10 J was the and that KO'ed me in the last 6 max tournament I joined, and it was also a couple players from the final table. I remember because I rarely join 6 max games.

This seems to be an underlying theme of my poker story. I've played a lot of MTT's in my day, and I've cashed in a very respectable 22% of them. Sure, I've knocked over a few for top 3 finishes, but I've had SO SO SO SO many that I fell just short of cutting it as a truly successful MTT and worth the hours of play time. I guess it's just the breaks of the game, and surely players endure far more 15th out of 400 finishes than they do 2nd out of 400 finishes, but it's still extremely frusterating. It's even more so considering the fact that I play solely $2-$20 MTT's, with the bulk of that being in the $5 range...so when I get 5X my buy in, it's not really worth the 4 hour time commitment, you know? Especially when hundreds of dollars are being rewarded to whoever lasts just a LITTTLE bit longer.

God knows going out on the bubble sucks, but it's almost worse to put in twice the time and get only a minimal reward...especially when a juicy pay day is within grasp. It has to be one of the most frusterating things in poker, right? Going deep...but not deep enough.

[toom]

Put this in MTT to develop the discussion of the JT call.

I dread the late tournament busts for small/min cashes after you've invested several hours, but if you're not getting those, you never have a chance to win. Tough 'em out, and I sympathize.

The JT call wasn't terrible. He has to call 21,000 to win 33,000, meaning he needs to win 36% of the time he calls you. If he assigns you a range of any pair, KQ, ATo+, and A9s+, he is 37% to win, enough to call, and his prerogative, some would say his duty, as the big stack.

Another factor that makes me lean towards call with JT: he raised 2.5BB. You reraised 16BB. With AA, KK, QQ, probably JJ, and sometimes TT, many players do not shove there, afraid to scare away action. Therefore, all the hands he fears are FAR less likely to be in your hand. If you have AK or AQ, he's a 60-40 dog. If you have 22-99, he's a 53-47 (or so) dog. The only hands you might have that crush him are AJ and AT, maybe KJ.

[cowboyfan]

IBD, I know you have some tournament skill, but I think you might be looking for the wrong things. Having a 22% cashing record is good, but I think you might be better off looking for a little worse cashing record and a little higher FT record. I think you need to be less afraid of busting on or near the bubble taking a few more chances to get the big stack that you can ride to the win. You will find a lot of people in these $5-$20 tournaments that are very happy to get their money back and are playing scared as the bubble approaches. Take advantage of that a little more. Attack them with regularity as the payout gets within their sight. One or two blind steals can increase your stack by 10-30% at that level.

Yes, sometimes you'll get called and you'll end up showing down junk. When it happens, tighten up an orbit or two, but look to start it up again.

The later it gets in the tournament (before the bubble), the less you need a real hand to play if you find the right people. PTF had a great suggestion that I think you should try. Sign up for a $1 tournament and cover your cards. Play it blind only worrying about position and aggression. Use your powers of observation to find the right people to attack and do it.

Just my thoughts. Hang in there. The breakthrough will come, but there's always something you can work on too. Find it and do it (mine is working on re-steals )

[taz115]

I posted a thread similar to this one over a year ago after I came short of big money at a couple of final tables over the course of a month. I was quite frustrated after I finally hit a FT of a major tourny sitting at 3/9 and I went out in 8th. I realized then that the variance at a final table alone is huge never mind over the course of an entire tourny.

If you theoretically treat each FT like a SNG you could expect to make the top 3 only 30-40% of the time. If you are playing MTTs with >1k players your not going to end up on FTs very often, especially if you play casually.

It is just something that MTT players have to accept, your long term profit is going to come from a small number of big wins or high finishes and those aren't going to happen very often. If I remove the results of my two biggest cashes I'm about a break even player in MTTs and if you remove 5 or 6 I'd be a big loser. That would be the same for lots of MTTers.

That doesn't mean anyone should just write off their poor results to variance because playing better and improving is always possible but you have to look at things with perspective. If 18 cash in a 180 MTT and you cash 20% of the time you'd be hitting the top 3 players about 3% of all tournys you play and those are small field tournys. 20% cash rate does seem a bit high to me.

If it is possible you may want to look into what your average position is once the bubble breaks as it is possible that if your not hitting a many top 3's as you'd expect that your going into the money short too often or not adjusting once into the money or something similar.