Joined: 29 Jun 2005 Posts: 2042 Location: Alameda, CA
Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 10:24 am Post subject: No wonder we have kicker problems!
Consider 10-handed hold'em. ~~~ Therefore, the probability that a player holding A-x is facing at least one player with an ace and bigger kicker is shown in the entries in the table below.
kicker 10-handed
K = .022
Q = .1077
J = .1885
10 = .2645
9 = .3359
8 = .4027
7 = .4653
6 = .5236
5 = .5778
4 = .628
3 = .6745
2 = .7172
If you have A-T there is a 26% chance you are out kicked. This is a good reason not to play poor kickers up front. The A-2 is pretty much the absence of aces.
Last edited by AlamedaMike on Wed Oct 10, 2007 1:32 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: 29 Jun 2005 Posts: 2042 Location: Alameda, CA
Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 1:31 pm Post subject:
This guy - Dr. Alspach is great with math - further it just shows how much information is available if you search or are lucky.
I read a little book called FLOP and on page 98 the author said in part "..Ignoring SF the chance of winning with the 2nd nut flush is 94% and the 3rd nut flush is 88%.."
I wondered how he knew that and now I know. See the above link.
I read a little book called FLOP and on page 98 the author said in part "..Ignoring SF the chance of winning with the 2nd nut flush is 94% and the 3rd nut flush is 88%.."
You have to be careful with that number. If the board is ,
then the second or third nut flush is far more likely to be good than a board of
Joined: 29 Jun 2005 Posts: 2042 Location: Alameda, CA
Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 5:27 pm Post subject:
nsidestrate wrote:
AlamedaMike wrote:
I read a little book called FLOP and on page 98 the author said in part "..Ignoring SF the chance of winning with the 2nd nut flush is 94% and the 3rd nut flush is 88%.."
You have to be careful with that number. If the board is ,
then the second or third nut flush is far more likely to be good than a board of
That is where intuition overrides the math. Thanks good point
Joined: 07 Apr 2004 Posts: 7626 Location: Drinking Carrot juice
Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2007 11:18 am Post subject: Re: No wonder we have kicker problems!
AlamedaMike wrote:
Consider 10-handed hold'em. ~~~ Therefore, the probability that a player holding A-x is facing at least one player with an ace and bigger kicker is shown in the entries in the table below.
kicker 10-handed
K = .022
Q = .1077
J = .1885
10 = .2645
9 = .3359
8 = .4027
7 = .4653
6 = .5236
5 = .5778
4 = .628
3 = .6745
2 = .7172
If you have A-T there is a 26% chance you are out kicked. This is a good reason not to play poor kickers up front. The A-2 is pretty much the absence of aces.
You still have to adjust these numbers somewhat with a sliding scale. This occurs because most people will raise AK/AQ, and, in many cases, AJ - possibly AT).
So, in the absence of a raise, a hand like A8 is much more likely to be the best A out there. This also means that if the board is A2569 and you have A8 then, if there is another A out, chances are pretty good that you're behind to Aces up
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See the above link.
,
Thanks good point