Joined: 13 Dec 2005 Posts: 371 Location: Warwickshire, UK
Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 6:15 pm Post subject: No value in a river call?
Villain is a maniac 71/34/1.4 over 83 hands.
I sometimes struggle with A high type hands blind vs blind and get a little confused. Again I play this passively as this maniac is not going to fold a great deal so I thought I'd preserve my implied odds for when I hit. Ok to let this go on the river when I miss?
With a gutshot, overcard and flush draw, you could probably check-raise the flop and bet the turn. As played Ace high is probably a slight favorite against a random hand (too lazy to PokerStove it), so I guess the call is OK.
Check/raising flop with strong draw is no good against maniac IMO. I like check/call. Call the river too and let the villain show his KQ, QJ, Kx, Qx, Jx type hand.
I like check-raising this flop. With 12 outs to a strait/flush, you'd have around 48% equity when he has a pair. Add to that the ace overcard and the fact you might already have the best hand, and you are probably a 60% favorite here. Raising this flop doesn't cost anything and you give the illusion you are gambling with the maniac, inducing him to become even more maniacal.
Note that even if he 3-bets, I'm probably still showing down. I'm at least seeing the river and I will be getting 1:9 to call there. The likelihood of him having some kind of busted draw (or random crap) is way higher than the required 10%.
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