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Need a little help here with the Math

 
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AlamedaMike
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Joined: 29 Jun 2005
Posts: 2042
Location: Alameda, CA

PostPosted: Sun Oct 07, 2007 10:47 am    Post subject: Need a little help here with the Math Reply with quote

On my post I made a very bad fold on the river for one bet.

I am trying to figure out the odds that he has AA, KK, QQ, KQ or AQ.

Here's my attempt.

If he has QQ+, AQo, KQo, then the odds for him to have QQ are.

6 ways to make AA, KK, = 12, AQ, KQ = 16 and 1 way to make QQ. So that is 28-1 that he does not have QQ. So, odds are I am ahead of QQ.

Did I get this right?

I tried to use pokerstove. Pokerstove gave a 3.18% chance of him having QQ which 1-31?

Preflop was someone dealt QQ+, AQo, KQo? I use someone since there are 9 players and anyone of them would play this the same.

There are 1326 2-card combinations and I have 1 of them. That leaves 1324. 29 combinations of QQ+, AQ, KQ suited or not and 9 players ~~~ 29/1324/9=5-1 or 20% that one of the 9 players was dealt one of the 29 2-card combindations. 46-1 that he was dealt one of those combinations.

Assuming the way it way played he has KK+, KQo, AQo and a diamond. What are the odds that I lost to a flush on the river. I could not figure this so I used pokerstove and the answer was 6%.

I did this by giving myself a flush so the only way for him to win was by hitting the last diamond. But I removed 2 d's from the deck so I think it is 8%.

Help.
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