My take on the post WTO decision situation

[JPFisher55]

I have reread the WTO report. What happened is that by a 2-1 decision, the panel ruled that essentially the US could comply with the WTO decision by opening up remote horse racing market to Antiqua without opening up the rest of the remote gambling market. They based this absurd decision on a misreading of the appellate ruling in the case and ignored the ruling of the compliance panel. Essentially, the WTO choose not to strongly enforce its decision in this case.
Thus, the WTO wimped out and has rendered itself meaningless like the UN. Why would China, US or any other nation ever obey a WTO ruling now? Why would a small to medium sized nation remain a member of the WTO?
Since the "Charming Betsy" WTO argument was not the major tenet of the iMEGA case, privacy rights are, that case will continue. However, I doubt that the district court judge will award iMEGA any relief and the case will be decided in the future, 1-3 years, by the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals. Who knows that ultimate outcome. I doubt that the judge in the Kaplan/Carruthers case will grant the defendants' motion to dismiss which is largely based on this "Charming Betsy" WTO interpretation of the Wire Act. If the defendants do not plea bargain, which they might and Carruthers should, and the defendants are found guilty, then the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals will eventually rule on the issue and might, or might not, rule for the defendants. This is 1-3 years in the future.
For now, I predict that the UIGEA will be impossible to enforce and the present status quo will remain through 2008 and probably into 2009-2010. Since I do not expect any serious effort to enforce the UIGEA by the next adminstration, it will probably just be a useless law and litigation will not be required to contest its regulations. Nor do I see the DOJ ever coming after online poker sites, their agents or affiliates. I expect the DOJ of the next administration to cease active enforcement of the Wire Act against foreign online gambling firms.
It is likely that some foreign poker rooms will eventually conclude that the US is not going after poker and reenter the US online poker market. I would not be surprised if all the pubically traded online gambling firms are taken private to be able to get around UIGEA and service the US market. Eventually, the poker rooms will separate themselves from their other online gambling sites by not permitting transfers between these sites. Thus, they will be able to use Epassporte. Some of the other ewallets may emulate Epassporte by serving only online poker sites and other similar ewallets might emerge.
The PPA can prevent the situation from deteriorating and could take advantage of a new administration to get a bill like Wexler's passed. It is worthwhile and might gain more power over time. I will continue to support it.
I feel sorry for Jay and Antiqua. To Jay, thank you for your heroic efforts to uphold freedom, your rights and those of Antiqua. Your loss fortends a worse world for the future.