Multiple Level Thinking

[ebo8b]

I'm familiar with multiple level thinking - you always want to think exactly one level higher than your opponent. Two questions:

How do you go about trying to figure out which level your opponents think on? Is this only possible if you've played many hands with a player?

Second level thinking is trying to figure out what my opponent thinks that I have. I understand that if my opponent thinks on the first level and I think on the second level, then I can play my hand so that my opponent puts me on an incorrect range of hands. What is third level thinking and above? How does a player apply that sort of thinking?

[Piemaster]

Third level thinking is working out what your opponent thinks you think he has. It is only really applicable against extremely good players, who know that you are also a good player.

For example, imagine you are heads-up in a no-limit pot against a world class player. You flop top pair, bet the flop and he raises with position. You check a blank on the turn and he checks behind. The river puts a possible flush on the board and you bet. Your opponent makes a substantial raise. Usually you would fold in this spot. However, your opponent is a world class player. When he checked through the turn, and raise the river, he will know that you will almost certainly put him on a flush. Therefore it makes sense for him to raise when he doesn't have the flush, knowing that there is a good chance that you will fold. This is second level thinking from your opponent. Now if you apply third level thinking, you will realise he is thinking this and call his large bet, knowing there is a good chance you are ahead.

I have no idea if this example holds up 100% to scrutiny as I just made it up, but that is the essence of third level thinking.

Don't even ask about fourth level thinking...

[Bugsbunny]

[nsidestrate]

[poker_Elmo]

In the thread about Annette in the MTT, we talk about a 3rd level thinking situation. She pushes all in with her draw, when a small raise probably would have done a better job at representing a monster.

In a 6-max game a couple nights ago, I hold KQ and raise from CO. BB calls.

Flop is 988. Check, I bet, he calls. Pot is now $32. Turn is a 9. He bets $20.

So the question is: what does my opponent have (2nd level), then what does my opponent want me to think he has (4th level). His bet makes very little sense if he has a 9 (I only had 60 behind, why not try to ch-raise to get me all in) or if he has an 8 (why not ch-call to keep the pot small. So he might have an ace, or he might have air.

I min-raised to $40, trying to represent that I have at least 9988A or better and he folded. He must be capable of at least 2nd level thinking to put me a good hand, but also hopefully not thinking 5th level of "I know my lead out on the turn will look weak, so that is why I do it with a monster."

Yes, it is very much like the princess bride dialogue.

[Musicca]

multiple level thinking

This topic is one of my favorites to discuss with fellow poker players. The different levels that people think at , and the deception and mixed gaming that goes on during a game. Knowing how your opponeents think about you and mixing it up to your advantage CAN be "easy money". Playing with an opponent that is of equal or greater experience / knowledge can be tactical bliss or outright misery Both of which i have induldged in.
Being that i play in mostly low limit SnG's and low limit NLHE ring games, it can be easy to over estimate a players level of thinkng, but because these lower monetary levels are readily availiable to the "casual and/or beginner players" . It is surely a place where you can not only learn how to use multiple levels of thinking successfully in your game, but you can easily see results very quickly in the technics learned.
Recognizing the stength of an apponent can be invaluable when using multi-level thinking. Obviuosly enough tho, there are certain player types that can be tricky to nail down consistently. Ah the joys of chasing the ever elusive perfect game !!

[toronexti]

I was bored today so I was playing a bit of HU SNG's. What level thinking is this hand on my part (part brag post ):

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t10/t20
2 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (2 players) Hero is BB with
SB calls t10 (pot was t30), Hero raises to t60, SB calls t40 (pot was t80).

Flop: (t120, 2 players)
Hero bets t80, SB calls t80 (pot was t200).

Turn: (t280, 2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets t100, Hero raises to t300, SB raises all-in t1430, Hero calls all-in t990.
Uncalled bets: t140 returned to SB.

River: (t2860, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: t2860)


Results:
Final pot: t2860

[Musicca]

ok, so a heads up raise in BB with suited 10 7, a continuation bet post flop, the turn you hit your pair and check and the SB bets out half the pot. You raise it 3X his bet. SB pushes.
As far as i can see. after his all in, You are at the fourth level . My logic behind this is as follows : first level- whats in your hand, second level- whats in his hand, third level- what he thinks you have, fourth level- what ( at this point) he wants you to think he has. Even as i type this, I'm starting to get dizzy,
My initial thought was that it is much simpler, in the fact that ultimatly your final decision is whether or not to call his all-in, that being dependant upon second level thinking ( whats in his hand). At this point tho, I'm sticking with what I typed first .
BTW i like the question, because as i hit the submit button, I'm not really sure if if I'm in the ballpark with this answer or just going round and roung chasing my tail and expecting a diffferent outcome each lap.

[Musicca]

hehehe ok so NO-ONE replyed to that last post, should I get it removed by the mod becasue its stinkin up the joint or is there ANY basis to it ? It sucks being left out there like that....

[nsidestrate]

Its really toro's fault for posting his hand history in the wrong place!

[Piemaster]

Actually, your levels are one out.

Zeroth(?) level - What do I have?
First level - What does he have?
Second level - What does he think I have?
Third level - What does he think I think he has
Fourth level - What does he think I think he thinks I.... oh sod it lets stop at 3rd


So in your hand example:

0th level - I have a pair, woohoo!

1st level - He probably doesn't have anything and is just trying to steal the pot when I checked to him.

2nd level - Oh bugger, he's gone all in. What hand must he put me on?

3rd level - He must be going all in, thinking that I will put him on a big hand and fold. But not smart old me, oh no. Call biatch!

[taz115]

[Bugsbunny]

[taz115]

[nsidestrate]