Low PFR, hi AF stats, is this an indication of some leaks?

[JoeStimpy]

Hi Terry,

I was looking at some of my stats from the beginning of the year in relation to the ranges you suggest in your book. One thing I've noticed is my AF seems rather high while my PFR seems a little low.

The PFR should be easy to move up, I feel I am pretty aggressive PF (never CC, always raise FI) but perhaps I need to start experimenting with raising a little more PF. What do you think is the cause of the high AF, and is this something I should be worried about?

5-6 handed, 7673 hands
(26/15/3.17) WSD 39 / W$SD 59

3-4 handed, 3209 hands
(40/29/3.26) WSD 42 / W$SD 58

HU, 3327 hands
(64/48/2.72) WSD 46 / W$SD 50

[TerryBorer]

Hi Joe -

What games are you playing? I'll assume it is a mid-limit game with a fair number of players after the flop.

PFR (pre-flop raise) first. I recommend a two-thirds ratio between VPIP (voluntary put dollars in the pot) versus PFR. Two-thirds of 26 is just under 18 so you are pretty close. As you are on the tight side your PFR should be a bit lower anyways because you still need to play a lot out of the blinds even as you tighten up out of position. So I think you are fine.

I don't know if "worried" is the right word, but I think you are overly aggressive. There are multiple ways to have a high PFR.

Folding too much This fits with your very high W$SD (won dollars at the showdown). Raising a lot means you will push opponents of weak hands; consequently their hands will be stronger at the showdown and so you will win fewer of them. So you may be giving up EV (expected value) by giving up the pot in marginal situations. That being said your WSD (went to show-down) number is also high (although you are very tight so maybe not). So perhaps you're just hit a hot streak or the numbers haven't converge well.

Betting and raising too much This one is almost certainly true. Checking and calling is sometimes the best play. I'd suggest you look for opportunities to extract extra value. Some examples are picking-off bluffs from aggressive players, slowplaying hands more heads-up in position and calling down with ace high.

If there are multiple players in the pot then just calling is often right; raising doesn't give you more pots and you'll often be behind and drawing with pot odds.

I'd suggest you keep your adjustments small, especially at first, since you appear to be playing very well.

Hope this helps,

-- Terry