JAJ what are the odds?

[AlamedaMike]

Seaniro - you had KK in the sb and raise preflop - 5 see the flop of JAJ - what are the odds that no one has an Ace and or a Jack? Does it matter?

The pot has 10 small bets. What is the odds that no one has an Ace? Answer is 20%. What is the odds that no one has a Jack? That I would have to do some math on but it is likely a 50% chance that no one has a Jack - if someone knows the odds please let me know.

If I interpret this table correctly the % that no one was dealt an Ace in a 9 handed game is 20%.

http://www.poker1.com/mcu/tables/Table24.asp

If the pot is offering more that 1-10 on your bet and the odds of no ace is 1-5 then my question is a bet worth it?

If I bet the flop and get called then check and muck if no King hits the turn. If this is a leak I will plug it.

[ciaran]

The odds that no one was dealt an ace are not the same as the odds that one of 5 people who see the flop in a raised pot has one.

[AlamedaMike]

[ciaran]

Well the odds of any hand that sees the flop having an ace are also different.

[AlamedaMike]

[ciaran]

My point was that knowing the odds of people being dealt an ace (or jack) isn't especially relevant to the question of what you should do on a 5-handed raised flop of AJJ when holding KK. People will get dealt all kinds of aces that will limp-call in the situation you describe, but they'll also fold all kinds of trash aces, and the likelihood of either of those occurrences is as dependent on the players and level as anything else.

On an AJJ flop when you've raised pre-flop and you get bet into by the first person of five to act (I'm not looking back at the exact situation you described, so forgive me if I'm mis-stating it), it's highly likely that person has the A or J, and whether or not they have it is essentially unrelated to the chance that they had it pre-flop (they've given you more information than you had when working with just the pre-flop expectations).

[AlamedaMike]

[ciaran]

And my answer is that the odds that they weren't dealt an ace pre-flop (ore pre-pre flop, before they've taken any action at all except to get their cards) are different than the odds they hold a an A (or jack) on this flop in this spot. You have more information than they were dealt just two cards (the odds you're looking at), since they've all seen fit to actually play the cards they were dealt. This isn't strictly a math question any more.

As a general rule, I think I'd rarely lead KK into 4 other people on an AJJ flop under these conditions, but I suck at limit, so maybe someone who actually plays will show up and address it.

To answer your specific question, if the odds are actually 4-1 that they missed this flop, then I suppose leading into them is +EV, I just think that number is highly suspect at this point in the hand.

[Bugsbunny]

A or J

AJ
Ax
Jx
AA
JJ

3 Aces and 2 Jacks in the deck
JJ = 1 combination
AA =3 combinations
Ax (not including AA or AJ)
AK = 6 combinations
AQ, AT->A2 = 12 combinations * 10 = 120 combinations
AJ = 6 combinations
Jx (other than JA or JJ)
JK = 4 combinations
JQ, JT -> J2 = 12 * 10 = 120 combinations

Total combinations are 120 + 4 + 6 + 120 + 6 + 3 + 1 = 260

47 cards taken 2 at a time is 1081 combinations.

So given any 2 RANDOM cards then any one player will have an A or a J 260/1081 = .240518 or about 24% of the time. With 4 opponents that percentage would obviously be higher.

Given 4 random opponents (which is not the case here) you have almost 40% equity in this pot.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
146,532,059 games 226.390 secs 647,254 games/sec

Board: Ac Jd Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.316% 38.75% 00.57% 56776602 838874.17 { KK }
Hand 1: 15.167% 14.23% 00.94% 20850224 1375474.83 { random }
Hand 2: 15.171% 14.23% 00.94% 20855686 1376393.33 { random }
Hand 3: 15.172% 14.23% 00.94% 20857713 1375292.37 { random }
Hand 4: 15.174% 14.24% 00.94% 20860298 1376937.70 { random }
---

And since I suspect that the majority of your equity loss here is when an opp is folding an A or a J I would venture to guess that one of the 4 opps is holding an A or a J here roughly 53% (somewhere between 50 and 55% for sure). of the time (when they have a random hand).

Given that the hands are not random and that both the A nad the J are definitely in the playing zone I'd suspect that I'm in trouble here the majority of the time. However given my preflop raise I still lead into this pot almost 100% of the time. How I handle it after that depends on what happens.

If I get 2 or more people showing interest (2 calls, a call and a raise, etc) I'm absolutely done with the hand and won't put any more money in, unless I spike a K. The times I would win in that situation are greatly outnumbered by the times I lose.

If 1 person calls and everyone else folds it becomes tricky since he may have an A or a J, or may be playing a smaller pair or a gutshot and just hoping to get lucky. So in that case I may just check/call down. Possibly bet/fold the turn (and check/call the river - hoping he checks behind if he called the turn) - but I would have to know that he's highly unlikely to bluff, or semi-bluff, raise the turn.

If 1 opponent raises my flop bet, and everyone else folds, then (unless he's normally passive) I would suspect that he's on a bluff - or possibly has a weak A (although a good player can make this play with a very strong hand, so a very good player is also a different beast - against him I'm usually better of folding once he raises)). But given that (back to the "normal" player (if such a beast truly exists)) I'd be inclined to 3 bet his raise on the flop and then bet/fold the turn. Now I'm trying to get him to fold a weak A (along with folding his pure bluffs etc). The pot is large enough to be worth throwing some chips at - and most players won't raise the flop here - they wait for the turn or river - if they have a J. A strong A they may raise or they may just call down. A weak A (or a smaller pair etc) is the one most likely to be raising the flop.

Bottom line is that you're not in good shape here. Throwing 1 bet at the pot and trying to take it down is fine, but if you get any sort of interest then after that check/fold is often correct - and even when wrong not usually wrong by a lot (unless opp is a habitual bluffer - in which case then every time he plays against me he'll have the J, against anyone else he'll be on a total bluff. Or else he'll raise me with 22 in his hand and then spike a 2 on the river, but I digress)). If you do decide to go to showdown you usually want to try and get there as cheaply as possible (with the exception of trying to get someone to laydown a weak A - but they have to be capable of it).

[AlamedaMike]

[AlamedaMike]

It happened again - JKJ flop and I had K5 in the BB and I was HU with an UTG limper.

I bet and he called. The pot, if you can call it that, had $10 and I needed to bet $6 so I was getting 3-5 on my bet that he would fold and give me the $10.

I think that I am done with this hand here? Agree.