Joined: 02 Dec 2004 Posts: 340 Location: WATFORD, UK
Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 7:14 pm Post subject: Is this true. Im confused now
I was just reading someone's blog and came across this statement below. Is this true. I dont think it is??? If i flat call $10 pre with 77 then i need to be making at least 7.5 times the amount i called ($10) in order for it to be a justifiable call??. Thats what i always thought anyway???
This is people overestimating implied odds. For example the odds of floping a set are 7.5-1. However dbitel calculated that actually you need closer to 18-1 odds to call preflop with a small pp. This is because you are not guaranteed to stack someone everytime you hit, and also you can get hit by set over set or some otehr random FD/OESD. I think the calculation was that if you have 33 on 3xx without knowing what xx is, the set will stand up by the river only 68% of the time vs a reasonable range (KQ+, 44+ etc etc).
Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 12:31 am Post subject: Good Luck
Getting a meaningful answer. The problem with a lot of available published "information" is that the methodology is neither provided nor explained, and pretty much all poker advice you will read is either anecdotal (based on a limited, personal sample) or dependent upon a littany of assumptions - some stated, some not. Implied odds are one of those gray areas - entirely based upon projections regarding future events. Even if there is a "best" abstract estimate, it might be totally inappropriate in any given real-world situation.
I know this isn't a specific answer to your question, and were I you I would be leery of any supposed answer that does not fully explain the derivation, sources of supporting data and underlying assumptions.
The vagueness and odd assumptions of the above quote make it difficult to give it any credibility. 33 on an xx3 flop will hold up 68% of the time? Against how many opponents?
Joined: 02 Dec 2004 Posts: 340 Location: WATFORD, UK
Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 5:28 am Post subject:
I dont need to be getting odds of 18.1 though do i? If so its no point playing pocket pairs lol. If a call a $10 at $1/2 NL then i need to be (on average) making at least 7.5 times the amount i called for pre-flop which would be $75 dollars??? Is this correct or am i way off???????
I dont need to be getting odds of 18.1 though do i? If so its no point playing pocket pairs lol. If a call a $10 at $1/2 NL then i need to be (on average) making at least 7.5 times the amount i called for pre-flop which would be $75 dollars??? Is this correct or am i way off???????
It's obviously correct if you win every time you hit. This is equally obviously not going to be the case all the time. If you want to know if 18:1 is a sensible number you need to be much more specific about number of opponents and range. It seems unlikely.
I'd say that if you can potentially win 10 times the preflop raise that you have to call then you should happily call. 18 times is positively ridiculous. Of course I have zero evidence to prove my opinion!
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