If you're getting the right odds, do you always make the bet

[CroMagnon]

For example, You are on the button, your stack is 1000 and you have AdTd, blinds are 25/50. UTG1 min raises to 100, MP1, MP2, and CO call, you make the call and the big blind comes in for 50 making the pot $625.

Flop is 5d4dJs. BB opens with $625, everyone calls and action comes to you. Do you make this call?

I think if I decide to make the bet I'm going to push it, but I wonder if I should as it will likely mean my tournament life is on the line. Should I wait for a bettor situation?

Thanks,
Cro

[Radford]

I personally would fold Ad-Td pre-flop with your stack. But anyway, it's an easy all-in on the flop.

[the_hawk]

I think the pot is 600 on the flop but that hardly matters. This is a surely a dead easy call (rather push). Assuming everyone calls the push (and covers) you're getting 5:1 about a 1.8:1 shot to make your flush by the river. There are obviously potential redraws even if you hit but the odds are compelling. Had everyone folded around to you (or perhaps if you had a single caller) it would be a much more interesting question. As framed it's an auto-call.

[CroMagnon]

Lets change two factrors then. You have AQs. After the flop only BB, UTG1 and MP1 call. You?

Then change it one more time and drop MP1from the call.

Thanks,
B

[the_hawk]

With two potentially live overcards and the nut flush draw I think I'd push against the bettor alone. With two or three callers it's automatic.

Edit: by AQs I assume you mean AdQd.

[ciaran]

There are a ton of factors to consider here. Is this an MTT, or STT? How many of your outs are really live? BB betting into 4 players is way different than just one player betting into you.

HU with the nut flush draw and two overs is generally a pretty good spot for a semi-bluff push, but as drawn up, there's no FE in a push and it's horribly likely that a set is out and/or some of your diamonds are out. It's not hard to imagine a spot where you could actually be getting less than the odds you need even with all the callers.

I think you need a more specific setup with reads to make this a question for which the answer can really be more than "it depends".

[CroMagnon]

This was a hypothetical situation that came out of a discussion with a co-worker. We were talking about odds and if there was ever a time when you're getting the right odds that you should fold. Is survival worth more than the potential the odds represent? In this scenario he says he folds every time and I am more likely to push. Though I'm not 100% comfortable doing so. My thinking is that if I hit I am more likely to get deeper and make more money which would offset losing this hand, but I hate getting knocked out on a draw.

So if we assume that the diamond outs are good, does the math require you to call?

In a real hand reads and discounting odds would be an important part of the decision. If a set is out there, which with this betting is very likely, then at least one of the diamonds is negated and certainly the over cards are gone. If the BB is a maniac, and everyone at the table knows it, they could be calling with a varfiety of hands. Which would make me lean towards calling. If he, and at least one of the others is a rock, then I would lean towards folding.

In reality I'm not good enough to make all of those evaluations in the time allotted. So I push and probably go home.

Thanks,
Cro

[ciaran]

[CroMagnon]

As my understanding grows I know that what you say is absolutely true. Having the confidence that my basic understanding of odds is correct is what I'm struggling with now.

Thanks,
Cro[/url]