I can't get the river right either

[Damien]

I'm still having a bit of trouble knowing when to make a crying call. This pot was certainly decent sized, but looking back at it, King high had virtually no chance of winning, did it? My only thought at the time was that he may have also been on the flush draw, maybe Jd 10d, but no, he wouldn't have capped pre-flop with that. So is this an easy check/fold on the river?

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.50/$1
8 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is SB with
5 folds, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, BB folds, Button caps, Hero calls.

Flop: (9SB, 2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, Button caps, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.5BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

River: (10.5BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: 12.5BB

[Willem]

It depends on the tendencies of villain. If his preflop cap is legitimate, you simply don't beat any hand and calling is spew. And if he is out of line, king high may still be too weak here anyway. You should show down any ace here though.

But calling here is not a big mistake by any means. Many low-limit players treat blind battle as pissing contests and may cap crap hands preflop and just barrel off with them.

[Misunderstud]

Well this isn't exactly a blind battle, although stealers can get pretty frisky too. This is where stats can come is useful. What is BTN's ASB and AF? If they're on the low side, or even against an unknown, you can maybe assume a legitimate hand and fold the river.

I'd also c/r the flop, which saves you a SB when he plays back at you.

[omega man]

i prefre to check call the flop this would have saved you 1.5 BB and another BB on the river when u should fold.
Losing 2.5 BB here is def a leak and spewing chips requiring alot of extra hours and work to recover.
Another question do you re-raise preflop if sb folds in the BB?
My own preference would be to just call saving a further 1.5BB.

[Damien]

[Misunderstud]

Yes, I get the impression it's a bit flaky. That's why I'm sticking with PT2 for now.

[Schlepper333]

[Damien]

Is that PT3? Anyway, I play on Tilt, but I can't find any preferred seating options in the build of PT3 that I have (build 2)

[Schlepper333]

[Misunderstud]

[shallam]

Preflop.

I might consider just calling with this hand, this is the type of hand I'd like to play with some volume-- I'd kind of like having the BB come in. By calling you have less of a commitment to the hand and then also you can checkraise if you hit. I would definately consider checkraising the flop with either a made hand or a draw. If you 3 bet you are committing to leading the flop almost regardless of the flop. I slightly prefer to play a big pot with a big hand and a small pot with a small hand.

OTOH, 3 betting is ok too as we certainly suspect the button of thievery. 3 betting has the advantage of giving us the agg-hammer, putting pressure on our opp to hit the flop or fold if he whiffs. It may also provide a message to the button that these blinds are not his for the taking.

I like 3 betting alot more if this opp is relentlessly attacking the blinds. Otherwise I prefer just calling.


The Flop.

Since we have a flush draw and two overs we nominally have 15 outs (9 flushies, 6 overs), which we should probably discount to about 11. With somewhere between 11 & 15 outs we are close to a math favorite (11 outs = 42%, 15 outs = 54%). Given the strength of my hand I'm definatley going to play. Since I'm going to play this hand to the river, I want to maximize equity which I believe I can do with some aggression. With my aggression I'm anticipating that a combination of showdown equity and my fold equity I'll be a solid favorite.

If I had 3 bet PF I'd bet out, if I had just called I'd check raise. You 3 bet and then lead out. Makes sense to me. Unfortunately our opp did not cooperate. His flop raise is not a good sign. We really wanted either a call or a fold, a raise is the worst possible reaction.

I would tentatively put him on a pocket pair, maybe something like 99 or 77. I will now give up the betting lead and hope to hit my draw. One could make an argument for 3 betting here, but that's a little too agg for my tastes. I doubt that it will give me a fold anyway given my read. I'm now less optimistic about winning the hand because I've giving up all my fold equity. Nevertheless, my drawing equity is sufficient to continue on in the hand. I recommend calling, and that's what you do. I like your play on the flop.


The Turn.

That card is no help and in fact makes things slightly worse. We are now drawing dead to any 8x or 2x hand. The good news is that these are unlikely cards for our opp to hold. I'm still putting my opp on a middle pocket pair,
I like checking calling here.

The River.

Well, that card is no help either. I thing it's time to give up. In addition to losing to any pocket pair which is my main read and nonbluffing hands -- we also loose to any A. I'd probably call with an A or a pocket pair -- but without them there several bluffs that we'd lose to. To call I want to be able to beat almost all bluffs. And BTW this one of the reasons I'm little reluctant to be agg with KQs, it's not a good showdown hand as it is behind any A and any pocket pair.





Summary.

Well this hand had an unfortunate confluence of events. Our opp didn't fold for us and we missed our draw. Nevertheless, I think we played the flop and turn correctly. Our preflop play could have gone either way and I think we probably should have folded on the river. I don't want to catch someone bluffing only to lose because their bluffing hand was better than mine.

I notice that you mention JdTd as a read and while this is certainly possible, I'd caution against the tendency to put your opp on a hand that you can beat.
Would your opp really raise the flop and bet the turn with a J high ? Maybe, but the play makes a lot more sense with a pocket pair.


What did your opp show ?

[shallam]

Postscript.

On my first read I missed that you 3 bet the flop and he capped. I think this flop play is too agg. It also changes my read somewhat to larger pocket pair maybe T's, J's or higher.

[jeffnc]

Well here's my take, and some may think it kind of passive, but it's just based on my experience.

Preflop, this is a pretty clear 3-bet for you, and obviously calling his cap is a no-brainer with no alternative.

However, in a late position/blind heads-up battle, he is folding his hand rarely. In other words, your fold equity is low so you almost always have to have the best hand at showdown to win.

I simply check/call this flop. I don't think bet/raising does anything but increase your variance.

The value in this hand is built into the preflop pot size. After that you have no idea where you stand. I would simply take advantage of my good pot odds and play it straight. There's little to be gained other than prideful machismo by pushing this one hard, unless you happen to be playing in a game where that actually has some metagame value, and in a 9 player game, that's pretty rare. You simply aren't going to be in this situation often enough.

You've gotten yourself into a situation where you almost have to call simply because the pot's so big, but you've subsidized that yourself, which you could argue you shouldn't have been doing.

I will usually just check/call, check/call, check/fold this hand.

And to answer your question, yes he might have JTs or worse here, some small percentage of the time. Pot odds and your best guess about the probability of that. I've seen random hands played this way.

[Damien]

I continue to be extremely impressed with the thought that is put into everybody's responses. Thank you so much. It's pretty cool that everybody has a slightly different take on this hand. Just goes to show that there is rarely one correct way to approach a particular situation (although there are certainly inadvisable ones, as I've shown in the past )

Shallam, I noticed that you are interested to know what villain has in a bunch of the hands that I've recently posted. I promise to look these up and let you know soon. Don't have time right now... gotta go watch the Giants cream the Redskins!

[Damien]