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AlamedaMike
2K Club
Joined: 29 Jun 2005
Posts: 2042
Location: Alameda, CA
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 Posted: Sat Dec 09, 2006 12:05 am Post subject: How long to wait? |
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Hi - I was playing 3/6 live and the first 1.5 hours I won $120. Then I hit a wall. For the next 1.5 hours I did not win a hand. My best hand was AKs and I hit the King. Player turned 2 pair and rivered a full house. I mucked my hand on the Turn.
At about 30 hands an hour I got about 75 hands. A very few were playable and they all missed but the AK. OESD, and FD just missed the flop or the river. Never flopped a set or 2 pair. If I hit it was bottom pair or some backdoor draws that I could not play.
The $120 that I won just slipped away and I found myself even after 3 hours and I quit.
The game was good but I was not winning any hands. I would have won 2 had I played junk.
How long do you go without winning a hand before you quit or change tables?
I have been on a 6/12 table for up to 3 hours and VP$IP (except the SB) was zero. Then I hit 5 hands in a row got even and then quit.
I guess that 75-90 hands can go by and you would not win one of them? 
I usually change tables after not winning a hand for 45 min. - 1 hour. |
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bpgui
2K Club
Joined: 17 Oct 2005
Posts: 2380
Location: Illinois
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| Posted: Sat Dec 09, 2006 1:06 am Post subject: |
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| As long as I'm not tilting and there isn't another table that looks juicier, I'll stay as long as I intended to play. On my last trip to Vegas (last August) I sat at a table for four hours playing 1 hand. The rest was absolute garbage. It was annoying and frustrating, but the table was very juicy and I knew I would get paid well if I got a hand. |
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the_hawk
Chelsea FTW!
Joined: 13 Jul 2005
Posts: 4449
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| Posted: Sat Dec 09, 2006 3:43 am Post subject: Re: How long to wait? |
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| AlamedaMike wrote: | | I usually change tables after not winning a hand for 45 min. - 1 hour. |
Why? |
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AlamedaMike
2K Club
Joined: 29 Jun 2005
Posts: 2042
Location: Alameda, CA
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| Posted: Sat Dec 09, 2006 11:46 am Post subject: Re: How long to wait? |
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| the_hawk wrote: | | AlamedaMike wrote: | | I usually change tables after not winning a hand for 45 min. - 1 hour. |
Why? |
That is a good question -
one is that if players see that I am not winning any hands they will call me more.
two is not a scientific or even proven fact and is more of a old wives tale -
I have seen some seats just get better cards. |
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bpgui
2K Club
Joined: 17 Oct 2005
Posts: 2380
Location: Illinois
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| Posted: Sat Dec 09, 2006 12:02 pm Post subject: Re: How long to wait? |
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| AlamedaMike wrote: | two is not a scientific or even proven fact and is more of a old wives tale -
I have seen some seats just get better cards. |
Definitely an old wives tale.
Over any small sample a few seats will get better cards than some others, but in the long run it will be an even distribution.
The deck doesn't care what seat your in. |
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Muttly
Joined: 24 Dec 2005
Posts: 811
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| Posted: Sat Dec 09, 2006 1:03 pm Post subject: |
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| I played at a table online the other night, my first win was hand 104 when they folded to me in my big blind. Around hand 108 I picked up the blinds, then hand 114 they folded to me in my big blind again. I didn't win for awhile after that and was way down for the session, but the table was good the whole time. |
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AlamedaMike
2K Club
Joined: 29 Jun 2005
Posts: 2042
Location: Alameda, CA
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| Posted: Sat Dec 09, 2006 1:17 pm Post subject: Re: How long to wait? |
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| bpgui wrote: | | AlamedaMike wrote: | two is not a scientific or even proven fact and is more of a old wives tale -
I have seen some seats just get better cards. |
Definitely an old wives tale.
Over any small sample a few seats will get better cards than some others, but in the long run it will be an even distribution.
The deck doesn't care what seat your in. |
I agree but just like you flip a coin there will be a run of all heads or all tales - I have seen this happen at the table and there is no explanation - except it is random.
It seems that most players just wait it out.
At the bay 101 I changed 3 times and on the 3 table I got my money back for the night. Who know? |
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the_hawk
Chelsea FTW!
Joined: 13 Jul 2005
Posts: 4449
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| Posted: Sat Dec 09, 2006 1:56 pm Post subject: Re: How long to wait? |
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| AlamedaMike wrote: | | one is that if players see that I am not winning any hands they will call me more. |
Umm, if that's a reason for any course of action, it's for staying right where you are.
| Quote: | | two is not a scientific or even proven fact and is more of a old wives tale - I have seen some seats just get better cards. |
It was said above that in the long-run all seats will get an even distribution of cards. This is true, but in terms of your decision-making there is a somewhat more significant corollary of that fact.
You have no idea where the good cards are going next (whatever that means). It is exactly as likely they will go to the seat you vacate as to the seat you occupy next. |
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toronexti
53o
Joined: 03 Sep 2004
Posts: 4240
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| Posted: Sat Dec 09, 2006 3:38 pm Post subject: |
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| I remember switching seats at a live table with a guy and then I went on a mini-rush and he was upset cause he should've gotten those cards . . . of course following that I lost 1/2 a buyin KK vrs AQo - but he didn't seem to notice that part of it. |
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ResumeMan
1K Club
Joined: 08 Dec 2004
Posts: 1496
Location: Oakland, CA
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| Posted: Sat Dec 09, 2006 7:06 pm Post subject: Re: How long to wait? |
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| AlamedaMike wrote: | | I agree but just like you flip a coin there will be a run of all heads or all tales - I have seen this happen at the table and there is no explanation - except it is random. |
You are absolutely correct, that will happen -- but the fact that it is happening right now has absolutely no bearing on whether it will continue. So if you move, you could be dodging a continuation of the dead cards dealt to that seat, or all of a sudden that seat could be dealt great cards. Both are equally likely to happen.
Now, lots of folks have silly superstitions, and usually there's no harm in them. And that may well be the case sometimes for this. But if you are getting up from a profitable table to move to one that may well be less profitable you are costing yourself money. Even if all the tables in the casino are likely to be equally good, you are forfeiting the knowledge of those specific players at the table and need to start your reads all over again. |
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AlamedaMike
2K Club
Joined: 29 Jun 2005
Posts: 2042
Location: Alameda, CA
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| Posted: Sun Dec 10, 2006 12:08 am Post subject: Re: How long to wait? |
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| ResumeMan wrote: | | Even if all the tables in the casino are likely to be equally good, you are forfeiting the knowledge of those specific players at the table and need to start your reads all over again. |
This is one reason that I stay - I have gained experience with the players.
The best way to deal with this is to play at the California Grand - their 6/12 game is a force move. 
It is an interesting, but albeit, meaningless topic. We can never predict the future. Even if you moved from a seat and that seat got "hot" it does not mean that if you stayed it would be "hot" for you. You hear 'who left that seat' a lot.
If you listen to the Mike Caro lecture on the "law of lose wiring" you will get an idea of what I mean.
http://www.poker1.com/absoluteig/mculib_audios.asp?action=viewimage&categoryid=2&text=&imageid=65&box=&shownew=
I was asking if anyone changed seats or tables because the were just not winning and I got some interesting replies.
I was playing 3/6 at the grand and changed from seat 3 to seat 5. The player that left seat 5 was lucky and cashed out 2.5 racks. We cut the cards and I won the cut and got the seat. One player say "oh, you have the hot seat." I did not say anything. I moved to get a better view of the flop. My eye glasses need to be updated.
I got 2 bad beats. Flopped top 2 pair and lost to a better 2 pair on the turn. With AK I flopped TPTK and he hit a set on the turn - not so hot after all. I went to the 6/12 table where I got my money back.
I have not gotten my head around it yet - still a work in progress. Some players have idiosyncricies. Mine is that if I am running very bad I like to change something - a seat, table, limit or casino - or quit. |
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jeffnc
Mason's Favorite
Joined: 13 Jan 2004
Posts: 7267
Location: NC, USA
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| Posted: Tue Dec 12, 2006 2:22 pm Post subject: Re: How long to wait? |
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| AlamedaMike wrote: | | How long do you go without winning a hand before you quit or change tables? |
Hi Mike, this seems like a strange post because you've posted quite a bit on here over the last few months and you seem more experienced that this. Why are you asking about just a few hours of results?
Assuming I had a read on how good or bad the other players at the table were, then I wouldn't leave a good table for any reason just because I hadn't won a pot, unless I was just having a horrible time. Moving tables can't help, and not playing poker would be... well, not playing poker  |
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jeffnc
Mason's Favorite
Joined: 13 Jan 2004
Posts: 7267
Location: NC, USA
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| Posted: Tue Dec 12, 2006 2:46 pm Post subject: Re: How long to wait? |
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| AlamedaMike wrote: | two is not a scientific or even proven fact and is more of a old wives tale -
I have seen some seats just get better cards. |
Well it is certainly not an "old wive's tale" - it's clearly established fact. The problem is not that streaks don't exist, it's that you can't use it to your advantage
1) that player won't let you take his seat
2) you don't have the slightest idea how long the streak will last even if he would. You have no evidence whatsoever that the streak will last past the hand just dealt
3) there is a streak that will happening in your seat too, so if you leave you'll miss it |
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jeffnc
Mason's Favorite
Joined: 13 Jan 2004
Posts: 7267
Location: NC, USA
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| Posted: Tue Dec 12, 2006 2:52 pm Post subject: Re: How long to wait? |
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| AlamedaMike wrote: | | I have not gotten my head around it yet - still a work in progress. Some players have idiosyncricies. Mine is that if I am running very bad I like to change something - a seat, table, limit or casino - or quit. |
Well that actually has some scientific basis behind it, even if it's just a small tendency.
Until you are the ultimate poker player with perfect knowledge and skill, there will always be things you don't know or don't understand. You have to accept this. It's possible that players at your table are making plays that seem bad, but in fact they are excellent players and you just don't understand the plays. Or perhaps the players are truly bad, but you don't know quite how to exploit their specific badness.
There is a slight tendency for when you are losing, that you are actually up against better players, or table conditions that you don't know how to exploit. So when you are losing, it might actually be +EV to get up and move even if you can't put your finger on why you're losing. However if you're pretty sure you're better than the competition and are just having bad luck, then moving would be a bad idea. |
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AlamedaMike
2K Club
Joined: 29 Jun 2005
Posts: 2042
Location: Alameda, CA
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| Posted: Wed Dec 13, 2006 4:04 pm Post subject: Re: How long to wait? |
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| jeffnc wrote: | snip..
There is a slight tendency for when you are losing, that you are actually up against better players, or table conditions that you don't know how to exploit. So when you are losing, it might actually be +EV to get up and move even if you can't put your finger on why you're losing. However if you're pretty sure you're better than the competition and are just having bad luck, then moving would be a bad idea. |
Nice reply - Rolf Slotbloom wrote an article on the wounded gazelle. You start to bleed and the players notice it and take more shots at you. Not sure. I do know that when I am winning I seem to do better. Under the reasons to quit the game is that you are up against better players and don't know it.
I have noticed when the days starts bad it usually ends bad - that could just be perception. |
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