How do I start over?

[AlamedaMike]

This is a question for Ed and for Ian together.

As I posted in the psychology I have exhausted my emotional bankroll. Ian's latest article about bankroll management rang a note with me as did this one.

http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/articles/when-do-i-know-im-awesome.html

I have been playing hold'em for about 4 years and not doing well. Sometimes I win and sometimes I lose. I just lose more than I win at the end of the year.

I considered quiting which is a great idea but I sometimes do really enjoy the game (love and hate relationship) and my wife loves to play. She is a small winner and if I quit she will as well.

So, how can I start over and work my way into being a good player? I really do not want to give up.

One plan of attack is to play 3/6 hold'em at my local card room and take just enough money with me and leave my ATM card at home. One weakness is that I will rebuy when stuck in what I think is a good game. HA! If it was a good game I would not be stuck. So when I win it is small - $50-$150 on average but when I get crushed I lose more than $200 at 6/12.

Say, I take $200 with me and start to play 3/6 on Saturdays (today) at my local card room (11 miles). If I lose each time that is $800 a month which is within my budget. (maybe I will win some). Since I do not have my ATM card I do not have a chance to rebuy. Also, how much should I set aside for the next 6 months? 300 BB = $1,800 - that should be enough for 3/6, agree? If I blow the $1800 wait until next year?

One psychology problem is that I am well off financially, but I do not like to lose, does anyone? So, my only limit is my emotional one. This, I think causes me to lose more in a given session than makes sense.

Does this make any sense? It is forced discipline.

I have read SSH about 3 times and I am probably not following all the advice. Actually I have read too many Poker books - about 20 of them.

Something is wrong with my game overall and I am not sure what; I must be making more -EV plays than +EV plays - or I am just very unlucky (a lot of second best hands). It could be that I do not recognize that I have the second best hand on the river.

One leak that I know that I have is not getting value from my good hands. The books that I try to follow now are ITH, SSH and WLLH. My problem is post flop,

This is an outline of my recent game plan -

Basic

1 Playing tight
2 Folding early
3 Incorporating Position and Strategy
4 Reading hands
5 Avoiding traps

advance

6 Winning without the best hand
7 Inducing calls and bluffs
8 Playing the players

This is from Barry Tanenbaum article.

Thanks - I will check for replies at the card room on my PDA for any sage advice.

[AlamedaMike]

Well, it worked in that I lost my $200 and had to leave. I have very bad luck and much of it I make myself. I get involved in a hand that is easly out drawn and usually does. Like I flop trips, bottom 2 pair or bottom set from the blinds or button and lose. If possible I need to play tighter and/or pratice #2 - folding early.

Can I fold trip kings if I think I am out kicked by the case king?

[chrisjp]

Folding big hands is a learned art. So often it is knowing your opponent. I learned a big lesson a year ago at the WSOP when I couldn't let AK go on a KK8x board. Upon reflection it was obvious I was beat but I couldn't lay it down. This year I made some nice laydowns. Live and learn.

I've read a lot of your posts Mike, and you sound like a winning player to me. Maybe Ed can offer some pearls of wisdom.

GL!

Chris

[AlamedaMike]

[jeffnc]

From "knowing" you on this board you seem to know what you're doing, so one guess is you're not doing everything you know you should in a hand. Sometimes it's harder to do live than it is online, or in analysis. I don't see any mention of aggressiveness or raising in your questions, are you sure you're raising enough early? I know you're concerned about folding more early.

Maybe Ed can provide some more objective comments.

[AlamedaMike]

thanks Fred. I am not as aggressive as I should be. This is because I have been pounded on so much. This leads to a visish circle. By not being aggressive enough I tend to lose and then losing causes me to be less aggressive with my good hands. Around we go.

-- removed some rambling --

[Ed Miller]

I have an idea of what the problem is:

1. You're not aggressive enough.
2. You tilt easily and quickly.

You probably also play too loose preflop.

More specifically, the problem is not that you take the ATM to the game, that you don't fold trip kings often enough, or that you keep playing in good games when you're stuck. (And what you said about, "If it was a good game, I wouldn't be stuck" isn't right at all. I'm stuck all the time in good games.)

Forget all that stuff. It's not what's stopping you from being a winner. The formula for beating the local $3-$6 is pretty simple. Play TIGHT, and play HARD preflop with good hands and on the flop when you hit your hand. And then HANG ON TIGHT and don't fold (unless it's like two bets to you on the turn and you have just a weakish pair).

Here's what I mean.

A8s in the first few seats? Fold it.
Q9s anywhere except the blinds? Fold it.
98s anywhere except the blinds? Fold it.
A9o anywhere? Fold it.
QTo anywhere? Fold it.
Raise in front of you? Fold everything weaker than AQ/AJs and 99. If you play, reraise. ALWAYS.

That's tight. You're going to go stretches of 40 hands where you don't play one. That's right! No grousing about how you "can't seem to get a hand." You're not supposed to get many hands.

ATs anywhere in an unraised pot? Raise it.
KJs anywhere in an unraised pot? Raise it.
99 anywhere in an unraised pot? Raise it.
AK anywhere after a raise? Reraise it.
You have the button in an unraised pot? Raise any two suited T or higher (e.g., QTs), raise your pairs 88 and higher.

You're actions preflop should be at least 3:1 raising versus limping. Suited hands beg to be raised. Big offsuit hands beg to be raised. Big pairs beg to be raised. The main limping hands are small pairs (66 and lower), small suited aces (A7s and lower) ON THE BUTTON OR CUTOFF (you're folding otherwise), and that's about it. Better suited hands you're raising. Bigger pairs you're raising. Offsuit hands you're not playing if it's like QT, and you're raising if it's like KQ. Not much in-between.

Since you're raising so much preflop, you should be playing big pots postflop. If you hit the flop, you're going to push... HARD.

Flop an overpair? Raise and reraise the flop.
Flop top pair/top kicker? Likewise.
Flop a flush draw or open-ended straight draw? Raise and reraise the flop! (This is if you use both cards for your draw. If there's three on the board and one in your hand, the draw isn't as strong.)

Then it gets a little trickier. If someone bets into you on the flop, the pot is big, and several players in the pot haven't called yet, raise even more hands. Raise middle pair. Raise hands like KQ on a T94 flop. Here's another example.

Three people limp, and you raise on the button with JTs. Big blind calls, and limpers call. Flop comes KT9 with one of your suit. Everyone folds to the player on your right who bets. Raise! You have good winning chances with your pair and draw, and your raise will protect the big pot and maximize your chance to win.

When in doubt, raise. Get into that habit. It's kind of hard to play too hard on the flop, especially if multiple people have yet to call a bet.

On the turn and river you slow down to resistance. If you jammed the flop, you can keep betting the turn and river, but if you get raised, slow down and just call down unless you have a whopper.

That's the basic formula. TIGHT preflop, JAM preflop and on the flop, VALUE BET the turn and river, and HANG ON TIGHT if raised on those streets. That will beat any $3-$6 game I've ever played.

The important thing is not to think much any any one pot, session, or even month. This is a strategy (and game) of averages. Sometimes your set gets cracked. Sometimes you build a huge pot with a flush draw and miss. Sometimes you raise middle pair and run into top pair and don't improve. That stuff is SUPPOSED to happen.

But sometimes your set holds up. Sometimes your top pair/top kicker holds up. Sometimes you build a monster pot with the nut flush draw and GET THERE. On average, hand after hand, your aggression has you betting more money with better hands than your opponents do. That's what the key is. Who cares if 6 people see the flop and 2 see the river? Who cares if one of them makes a flush on the river? That's the whole point. If you're waiting for good hands and playing against 6 players, you're going to win more often than they will. If you build big pots, then eventually you'll get their money. The hiccups in between are 100% irrelevant.

(P.S. The above strategy isn't optimal. I tailored it to be simple and to address the weaknesses I think are probably in OP's play. One size doesn't fit all, your mileage may vary, yada yada.)

[AlamedaMike]

Ed, Thank you very much for the detail of your reply. Sounds like the best advice that I have received to date.

I will read it again, digest it and make it part and parcel of my game play.

I have stated that I do not think that I am being aggressive enough, I see you agree. I will fix that. Last year, I recorded the starting hands from SSHE into my PDA and I quickly noticed that there are very few offsuit playable hands in the loose game starting hand standard.

BTW, one day a few months ago I was playing 6/12 OTB and I had a hand that if I had listened to you and raised my draw (similar situation to the Q7 hand page 96) I would have won the hand. It was a perfect situation but like a dummy I let it pass. After the hand I saw the hands and realized that I played the hand suboptimal.

Ever since then I was looking for an opportunity to mention it. Thanks

BTW, I have copied this to my PDA for further review.

[Ed Miller]

[krazytxan]

Thanks Ed-

I have Mike's problem too.

Have bookmarked this thread. Now I just need for work to slow down, so I can study.

Becky
KT

[jeffnc]

Everyone knows tight/aggressive is the way to play. However you pigeon hole it, let's just say there is some optimal way to play in a given game, which might include some deviations from textbook tight/aggressive. Since we can't play perfectly, we can at least have some influence on how we deviate. Playing very tight/aggressive is not one of the more costly deviations. It might not be optimal but it's almost impossible to play a losing game that way. Loose/passive, or other deviations are worse and can be bad enough that they start losing.

[AlamedaMike]

Ed, How is this?

I have heard it said over and over that the game is mostly luck. I agree, however, the luck is hitting your hand and the skill is how much you win.

I wanted to experiment with the strategy that you listed above.

I am BB with in a loose and aggressive 4/8 game.

Preflop: UTG call, 3 fold, MP call, 1 fold, LP call, OTB call, SB complete, I raise. All call.

Flop is (6 players, $44)

SB bets, I call, UTG calls, MP raises, OTB calls, SB calls, I call, UTG calls.

Turn is (5 players, $84)

SB checks, I bet, UTG raises, MP folds, OTB calls, SB raises, I cap, UTG calls, OTB calls and SB calls.

River (4 players, $220)

SB bets, I raise, UTG calls, OTB folds, SB calls.

Results I win and the pot is $260. The other two players had a Jack and OTB had a flush draw.

This was a compute simulation not to be confused with reality. I set up the simulation to deal me in the BB and flop each time. I played the hand a bunch of times until I found a hand that I wanted to repeat. Then I repeated it using different strategies. If I did not raise in the BB I would have lost $20 in potential profit (2.5 bb) - pot $236. If I was overly aggressive I lost UTG and the pot was in these ranges: $138, $188, $208.

By making optimal decisions I was able to increase the pot to $260.

This enforced the concepts that you listed above and I have proven to myself that aggression works and there is skill in the game after all.

Now, these are bots and follow its programming. Human players with the same hands might play a bit different. MP was second in and did not raise with AQs. Here are the hands. Remember loose low limit.

UTG had
MP had
LP had
OTB had
SB had .

I could have lost on the river if a spade hit which will happen sometime. I could set up a simulation and have a spade hit but that is too much like work.

Playing this hand pointed out to me that I have not been getting the maximum from my good hands when I play live. This eats into my profits.

I think the light is starting to get brighter.

[AlamedaMike]

[AlamedaMike]

Ed, Per your advice

[Ed Miller]

Mike, that last hand sounds good. The KJ hand you posted, however, I would never play as you did. I'd just check in the big blind with KJo (though raising isn't so bad, and I'd raise KJs). And I'd raise the flop rather than play it call-call, particularly since you raised preflop and the pot is large.

I think your methodology is a bit tainted for how you ran your sim. By focusing on a single hand and maximizing the results for that hand, you ignore the myriad similar-but-slightly-different hands that would work out differently. What you want is the best play *on average* in a given situation, and range of similar situations, not the play that maximizes for a single example hand.

Incidentally, this goal (of finding the best plays taken over the sum of possible inputs) makes running sims to get meaningful outcomes sort of tricky. It's very easy to run a sim that leads you to a certain conclusion about how to play, but that is flawed in a subtle, but important way.

One final point... I wouldn't worry too much about my image or how other players see me at $3-$6. The fact is, even if they are outwardly grumbling about how tight and/or raise-happy you are, they will tend not to adjust to you at this level. So they'll grumble about it, but they won't go the next step and adjust. Obviously there are exceptions, but I find it to mostly hold at this level. As such, make sure you don't outthink yourself, e.g., "They all think I'm crazy tight some I'm going to bust out a wacky bluff now that's sure to work." Fundamentals are what's most important.