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chrisjp
Mr. Lovable
Joined: 03 Jun 2004
Posts: 5013
Location: Round Rock, TX and Las Vegas
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 Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 4:38 pm Post subject: Hellmuth makes a big laydown |
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He is such an intriguing player. From pokernews:
On a board of 6h5d4d , Phil Hellmuth was involved in a three-way pot with Felix Osterland and Barry Leventhal. Hellmuth checked from middle position and Leventhal moved all in for 399,000.
Leventhal said, "If I lose, I'm gonna go to the buffet."
There was some additional chit-chat but Osterland eventually folded and the action was on Phil Hellmuth.
"I know you got something," said Hellmuth.
"I got a bluff," replied Leventhal.
After some additonal back-and-forth between the two men, Hellmuth eventually folded Qd7d face up.
"Wow! How can you fold that?" asked David Saab from a nearby table.
The table encouraged Leventhal to show but he eventually mucked face down
I figure the all in was about 1/2 to 2/3 of Phil's stack. Don't know precisely. Seems like an appropriate laydown to me.
Chris |
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ciaran
ITH Support
Joined: 10 Sep 2004
Posts: 4781
Location: Alpharetta, GA
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| Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 7:46 pm Post subject: |
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| I posted this in the other thread, but he basically can't be worse than a 60-40 dog here, right? Gotta be hard for him to be priced out here, though I suppose stack distribution throughout the rest of the tourney could be a factor (if winning a flip here gives him a relatively huge stack or losing one causes him to go from dangerous stack to ineffective one). |
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krazytxan
Texas Matriarch
Joined: 26 May 2004
Posts: 4692
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| Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 7:49 pm Post subject: |
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I like the next hand where he laid down QQ.
Winner flashed QQ as he scooped the pot.
LMAO |
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chrisjp
Mr. Lovable
Joined: 03 Jun 2004
Posts: 5013
Location: Round Rock, TX and Las Vegas
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| Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 9:44 pm Post subject: |
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| ciaran wrote: | | Gotta be hard for him to be priced out here, though I suppose stack distribution throughout the rest of the tourney could be a factor (if winning a flip here gives him a relatively huge stack or losing one causes him to go from dangerous stack to ineffective one). |
Snyder's new book has a lot to say about this. Pricing people in and out is a flawed way to look at things often--according to Snyder. There is so much more to it. Very interesting new book, Book 2. If Hellmuth has a sufficient stack here to be fully armed for battle, ie he can use all his moves, then he may want to lay it down if a loss here cripples his ability to fully exploit his talents. Plus, he obviously is one of the better players remaining, and could be the best. It's still a relatively weak field to him, much weaker than the normal big buy in WPT events for sure. Yeah, there more than a few donks still alive and kicking. Several great players too, but it's not like any other event in the world with 6800 anteing up $10K.
I'm so jealous. 
Chris |
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ciaran
ITH Support
Joined: 10 Sep 2004
Posts: 4781
Location: Alpharetta, GA
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| Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 11:00 pm Post subject: |
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Well, the worst case is he's 65-35 and getting something in the neighborhood of 2-1 on a call (I'm guessing, based on a pot-sized AI, I've not looked for more info on the hand). He could be ahead already, though I suppose it'd be hard for him to be way ahead as well.
I think there's certainly argument to be made either way, and I don't think there's necessarily enough info to really know, but I think Hellmuth tries way to hard to find close folds, and I think people in general, even admittedly accomplished players, overestimate the value of their edge over the field. Again, I don't know the overall tourney situation here, either, so that's a factor, but I'm assuming an extra 750K could be put to good use if he won this flip. |
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Tall Paul
Prolific Final Tabler
Joined: 17 Nov 2004
Posts: 3157
Location: Losing flips
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| Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 12:52 am Post subject: |
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Hmmm, open-ended straight and flush draw. Sounds familiar  |
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