Hellmuth given a gift by Evelyn Ng...will they ever learn?

[chrisjp]

Yesterday, I thought I posted this here but it ended up in 53o. I must be losing it.

Pokernews...

Evelyn Ng raised to 21,000 and Phil Hellmuth called in the big blind. The flop came JhTh6c and Hellmuth check-called Ng's 36,000 bet. He check-called again when Evelyn bet 55,000 after the 3d came on the turn, and he check-called again when Ng bet 80,000 when the 4d fell on the river. Ng showed AhQh and Hellmuth flipped over his KsJc for top pair to take down a huge pot. He's now back up to 432,000 while Ng fell to 228,000

Well that is not a huge pot when the average stack is over 400K.

But what is Ms Ng doing? Classic Hellmuth rope-a-dope. How can she bet the river and just give him chips? Do you think he will call with a worse hand , and do you think he will fold with a better one? Sheesh people! You had him on the ropes....

I can hear Dennis Green now, "He is what we know he is...and we let him off the hook!

Chris

[chrisjp]

Let's be serious and analyze this one closer. First the facts.

Evelyn raises 3.5BB from early position and Hellmuth calls in the BB
About 50K in the pot

Flop: Jh-Th-rag
He checks, she bets 36K into a 50K pot, 2/3, normal on a draw heavy flop although a bit light

Turn: blank
He checks, she bets 55K into a 122K pot, less than half. Hmmm.
River: blank
He checks, she bets 80K into a 232K ppot. 1/3 pot. Extra Hmmmmm.

Her smaller bets make it look like she is betting scared. Makes it look like she has the draw. Phil knows she doesn't have AJ, she wouldn't raise with that in ep preflop. And she didn't check behind on the turn, like she might to trap him and for pot control. Or bet larger on the turn to price out his draw. This smells weak and ugly, like a draw.

Now from Evelyn's point of view. She knows Phil doesn't have a draw. I mean SHE has the Royal draw. Phil can't have a flush draw and he can't have a OESD because of the JhTh on the board. A made straight could get stacked here. Could Phil have a Jack or a Ten? Certainly, especially since he knows she can't have AJ or AT with her ep raise.

She HAS to know he has a made hand at the end, and since none of the draws came in he will call. Just pathetic.

Maybe if she had JJ or TT one can justify her play, even approve of it. Phil has to take that chance that she doesn't, and he is rewarded for his smart play again.

Chris